In the last eight years we are proud to say we've accurately named 190 of the 254 (74.8%) players selected in the first round in our PLAYBOOK NFL Mock Draft, including 49 of 64 the last years, as well as 40 players assigned to their designated teams.

The biggest coup was selecting 7 of the first 9 players drafted by their eventual teams in the 2020 draft.

Every team will be looking for a diamond in the rough but, after the combine and personal workouts, there is not much about this year's crop that teams and scouts do not know.

What we do know is that quarterback is the position most frequently selected at No. 1 overall. Since 1936, a staggering 34 quarterbacks have had the honor of hearing their names called first on draft day. A quarterback has been the first pick in four of the last five drafts and seven of the last nine. This year the Chicago Bears are set to make it eight of the last 10. Right on their heels, running backs (23) rank second. Given that it’s been 29 years since we last saw it happen, it’s probably safe to say Ki-Jana Carter will go down as a nice trivia answer as the last running back to be taken with the first overall pick. Defensive linemen (15) come in third.

Speaking of QBs, technically only 7 quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall in the history of the NFL have ever won a Super Bowl for the team that drafted them:

• 1970: Terry Bradshaw (Pittsburgh Steelers)

• 1971: Jim Plunkett (New England Patriots)

• 1989: Troy Aikman (Dallas Cowboys)

• 1998: Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts)

• 2011: Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers)

• 2012: Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts)

• 2016: Jared Goff (Los Angeles Rams)
  

Note: In 1983 John Elway was selected No. 1 overall by the Colts, but the was traded immediately to the Broncos; and in 2004 Eli Manning was No. 1 overall by the Chargers, then traded to the NY Giants.

So where does that leave the Chicago Bears and soon-to-be No. 1 overall pick, QB Caleb Williams? Our best guess is on the road to recovery.

There are 257 picks in the 2024 draft, but there are hundreds more prospects available - some of whom will sign as undrafted free agents and some who will pursue other avenues.

Pending trades, here is Playbook's final assessment on the 2024 NFL Draft based on expected player availability and team needs.

Note: Each team's needs based on the provision that there are no trades (of which there are almost certain to be) and player references are from the Our Lads Football Guide – hands down the best draft guide on the planet.

Meanwhile, enjoy this year's NFL Draft …

1 - Chicago - Primary needs: QB, Edge, WR, LB, OL
Projected Selection: Caleb Williams, QB - USC 
Comment – The first of two first round picks, the Bears have only four picks overall in this year’s draft so any mistakes will be magnified. After last year’s No. 1 overall disaster with Bryce Young, Chicago stands firm with the former Heisman winner and his incredible throwing proficiency. The Bears did not trade out of the top slot for a reason – Williams and his playmaking skills is their man.

2 - Washington - Primary needs: QB, OT, Edge, CB, LB
Projected Selection: Jayden Daniels, QB – LSU
Comment – Called the best QB in this year’s draft by Our Lads, this year’s Heisman, winner was a five-year starter where he was the first true freshman in Arizona State history to start on Week One. Has off-the-charts playmaking ability and displays Patrick Mahomes-like adeptness in avoiding defenders and delivering the ball.

3 – New England - Primary needs: QB, WR, OT, Edge, CB
Projected Selection: Drake Maye, QB – North Carolina 

Comment – A great athlete with prototypical size and elite strength whose arm and legs remind many of Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson, and Robert Griffin III. He led the team in rushing, but also set a program record with 38 passing touchdowns. While he can fit the ball into tight windows, the biggest knocks are his accuracy on easy throws and a tendency to scramble into sacks.

4 - Arizona - Primary needs: WR, Edge, DT, CB, LB
Projected Selection: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR – Ohio State

Comment – With two first round selections, the Cardinals are one of three teams in the year’s draft with 11 picks as they look to leave Sin City with most of their needs fulfilled. With Harrison they land what Our Lads calls the best player in the draft. We agree. He has the potential to be better than his Hall of Fame father, and is a leading candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year.

5 – L.A. Chargers - Primary needs: WR, CB, DL, IOL, LB, TE
Projected Selection: Malik Nabers, WR – LSU

Comment – With a big hole to fill in their wide receiver room following an offseason during which both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen departed, Nabers gives the a WR1 that can stretch the field (19 deep receptions in 2023). A strong and physical receiver who can run every route, he had 89 catches for 1,569 yards and 14 TDs last season. Cuts in and out of his breaks with precision. Will open windows of separation with sudden change of direction and accurate timing.

6 – N.Y. Giants- Primary needs: WR, QB, RB, CB, LB, S
Projected Selection: Rome Odunze, WR - Washington

Comment – Only Chicago, Cleveland, and Miami have fewer selections in this year’s draft than the (6) Giants, making every pick important. Three-year starter earned first team All Pac-12 honors the past two seasons Odunze shows immense potential. He bulked up last season and can out-muscle most DB for the ball.

7 – Tennessee - Primary needs: OL, CB, S, Edge, QB
Projected Selection: Joe Alt, OT - Notre Dame

Comment – If the Titans don’t trade back for extra picks, taking Alt is a no-brainer. Tennessee's left tackles allowed a league-high 152 pressures over the past two seasons and Alt, a three-year starter, gave up only five pressures last season. He is a top-shelf athlete and the son of John Alt, a former Kansas City first round pick and two-time Pro Bowler and brother to Mark Alt who played in the NHL for five seasons. He was also a former basketball player, tight end, and quarterback.

8 - Atlanta - Primary needs: Edge, DT, CB, LB, WR
Projected Selection: Laiatu Latu, Edge - UCLA 
Comment – This team needs a cache of young defensive playmakers who can fill the holes in a veteran lineup and there’s no place that’s more glaring than in the pass rush. PFF says he gives the Falcons a talent along the edge that they've been missing for a long time. He was the college football Comeback Player of the Year in 2022 (coming off a neck injury), and the Lombardi trophy and Hendricks trophy (representing the best lineman and edge defender in the country) winner in 2023.

9 - Chicago - Primary needs: QB, LB, Edge, OL, WR
Projected Selection: Brian Thomas Jr., WR – LSU

Comment – Figure the Raiders to come calling in a trade-up in quest of a QB, but should the draft-thin Bears stand pat, Thomas would ideally compliment top-pick Williams. A former 1,000-point scorer that turned down division one basketball offers out of high school, he more than doubled his career production in his final season with the Tigers. The tall, long, and flexible downfield target led FBS with 17 touchdowns, scoring in 10 of 13 games.

10 – N.Y. Jets - Primary needs: WR, S, DT, QB, TE
Projected Selection: Brock Bowers, TE - Georgia
Comment – The top four receivers are off the board, so the Jets take the best available weapon in Bowers. arguably the greatest college tight end of all time, providing elite ability after the catch. Behind a revamped offensive line, with a loaded skill group that includes Bowers, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, and Mike Williams, it’s why Aaron Rodgers is smiling these days.

11 - Minnesota - Primary needs: OL, WR, DB
Projected Selection: J.J. McCarthy, QB - Michigan
Comment – McCarthy displayed the necessary physical tools and has renowned intangibles. The five-star recruit was 27-1 as a starter with Michigan, and 34-2 overall in high school. Teams with head coach Kevin O’Connell and QB coach Josh McCown (both NFL QBs), not to mention the league’s best WR in Justin Jefferson. If he falls to the Vikes in this slot, he could prove to be the biggest steal in the first round.

12 - Denver - Primary needs: QB, WR, Edge
Projected Selection: Bo Nix, QB – Oregon

With an FBS-record 61 starts under his belt, rookie passers don’t come much more ready-made. The second-run on QBs continues with the quarterback-starved Broncos wrapping their arms around as Nix who recorded the lowest turnover-worthy play rate in the nation last season. A five-year starter, he graduated from Auburn in just three years and transferred to Oregon where he left there as the program’s all-time leader in completion percentage. His completion percentage in 2023 was an all-time NCAA record. Nix started more games (61) under center than any other quarterback in FBS history. Yes, he checks a lot of boxes.

13 – Las Vegas - Primary needs: QB, OT, CB, WR
Projected Selection: Michael Penix Jr. QB, - Washington
Comment – Raiders urgent need for a quarterback leaves them is “trade-up” mode in this draft. If they haven’t done so yet, then Penix fits the bill. A strong pro day vaults him into this position. The Heisman runner-up to Daniels last season, he tallied 67 TD passes, 19 INTs in 2023. Penix tosses lasers, which is a big plus at this level.

14 – New Orleans - Primary needs: OT, DT, TE, WR, Edge, S
Projected Selection: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT – Penn State
Comment – The Saints finished with the PFF’s 23rd-ranked offensive line in 2023. Given the amount of abuse New Orleans QB Derek Carr suffered last season, Fashanu looks like a gift from heaven. He ranked in the 98th percentile of NCAA qualifiers over the past two seasons in pass-blocking grade on true pass sets. A two-year starter, he was All-Big 10 the last two seasons, first team in 2023, as well as winner of the Rimington-Pace Big 10 Offensive Lineman of the Year Award.

15 – Indianapolis - Primary needs: CB, Edge, LB, WR
Projected Selection: Quinyou Mitchell, CB - Toledo
Comment – Mitchell plugs a big hole for the Colts. Over the past two seasons, he surrendered just 56 receptions on 140 targets into his coverage with eight interceptions and 36 forced incompletions. He’s the No. 2 rated CB by Our Lads.

16 - Seattle - Primary needs: OL, LB, DT, Edge, QB
Projected Selection: Jackson Powers-Johnson, C - Oregon 
Comment – JPJ is the best center in this class but can slide in at guard as a rookie to solidify a major weakness on the roster. Unanimous All-America in 2023 and first team All-Pac 12, and Rimington Trophy winner. There are not many true weaknesses in his game and the power he brings can be overwhelming. Our Lads says he was the best player in Mobile at the Senior Bowl, and his wrestling background is obvious with the way he can combat defensive tackles in tight spaces.

17 - Jacksonville - Primary needs: WR, OT, DT, Edge, S, CB
Projected Selection: Amarius Mims, OT - Georgia
Comment – The main objective for the Jaguars this season will be keeping franchise QB Trevor Lawrence upright. If they don’t trade up, Mims could be their man. At 6-foot-7 and 340 pounds, he is raw but an impressive pass blocker, allowing just one pressure on 168 such snaps last year. Our Lads contends he looks like he was scientifically manufactured in an offensive tackle factory. Has an enormous frame in all directions with ideal weight distribution from top to bottom.

18 – Cincinnati - Primary needs: OL, DL, Edge, WR, TE, DB
Projected Selection: JC Latham, OT - Alabama
Comment – All-America and first-team All-SEC in 2023. Has a special trait that will work well at any level of football, and that is pure hand strength. Latham is going to be a weapon in the run game. His play style is overwhelming and consistent in that area. Powerlifter-type frame, and a boulder against the bull rush. Remains patient and stays within himself.

19 – L.A. Rams - Primary needs: DL, S, Edge, CB
Projected Selection: Arnold Terrion, CB - Alabama
Comment – After being relatively draft-poor in recent years, this will mark the first of 11 picks in this year’s draft for the suddenly draft-rich Rams. A two-year starter. First team All-SEC and second team AFCA All-America in 2023. Ideal height and length for an athletic corner. Started his career as a safety with some work in the slot. Made a remarkable transition to corner and is still considered an ascending player.

20 - Pittsburgh - Primary needs: WR, OT, CB, LB, S
Projected Selection: Taliese Fuaga, OT – Oregon State
Comment – Two-year starter. All-Pac 12 the past two seasons, first-team in 2023. All- America as a senior. Fuaga is a road grader who sends second and third level defenders flying. Puts defenders from all levels on the ground and moves them against their will whenever he wants to. He combines the top end power with light feet and a quick burst to win initially. His play strength and mentality finishes them off, notably in the running game.

21 – Miami - Primary needs: OL, DL, Edge, CB
Projected Selection: Dallas Turner, Edge - Alabama
Comment – First-team All-SEC, Co-SEC Defensive Player of the Year and consensus All-America in 2023. A physical outside linebacker who excels as a pass rusher off the edge with 4.46 speed. Has an extremely quick first step and speed to get around an offensive tackle. He can gather and drive through tackles with explosiveness.

22 - Philadelphia - Primary needs: CB, LB, S, DT, WR
Projected Selection: Cooper DeJean, CB - Iowa
Comment – Tall, muscular frame corner but has desirable size for a corner or safety. Broke out in 2022 with five interceptions, three returned for touchdowns. Was having another great season when sidelined with a lower leg injury in November. Versatile player with experience at outside corner, safety and nickel. Remarkable ball skills and vision, he anticipates the throw. Huge value selection.

23- Minnesota – Primary needs: QB, DL, S, CB, OG
Projected Selection: T’Vondre Sweat, DL - Texas
Comment – His NFL draft profile calls him a force of nature. The brother of Philadelphia Eagles DE Josh Sweat. First team All-Big 12, first team unanimous All-America and Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year in 2023. He is a massive prospect with imposing size and length. His frame is ideal for an interior defender. Very difficult to move and routinely stuffs double teams and combo blocks. His value is much more than a two-gap space-eater.

24 - Dallas - Primary needs: OT, C, S, CB, RB, WR
Projected Selection: Tyler Guyton, OT - Oklahoma
Comment – All-Big 12 in 2023. Spent two seasons at TCU prior to transferring to Oklahoma where he locked in the starting right tackle job for two seasons. A former high school defensive lineman and basketball player, Guyton’s tool set and the fact he is an offensive lineman with just two years of game experience leads to the notion there is plenty left for him to realistically absorb. He checks all of the boxes when it comes to tools and talent. The flashes of dominance are there.

25 – Green Bay - Primary needs: OG, S, LB, CB
Projected Selection: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB - Alabama
Comment – The first of 11 picks in this year’s draft for the Packers. He was a first-team All-SEC in 2022 and 2023 and first- team consensus All-America in 2023. Ideal size and athletic skill for a corner. In addition, in 2022 he was one of the best punt returners in the country, and while the stats weren’t as good in 2023 his return skill is a plus.

26 – Tampa Bay - Primary needs: DL, OL, CB, RB
Projected Selection: Byron Murphy II, DL - Texas
Comment – Was part of the best defensive tackle scheme in college football last season with T’Vondre Sweat at Texas. First-team All-Big 12 and third team AP All-America in 2023. Was voted Defensive Lineman of the Year in the Big 12 in 2023. Shows ability to adjust to quarterback movement and chase down a scrambling quarterback His overall athletic ability, pass rush skill, and high motor make him a desirable prospect.

27 - Arizona - Primary needs: WR, CB, DL, Edge
Projected Selection: Jer’Zhan Newton, DL, Illinois
Comment – Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, Newton’s quickness makes up for his compact stature (6-foot-1.5, 300 pounds) with outstanding quickness and dogged determination. Few pass rushers get off blocks better than him. 

28 - Buffalo - Primary needs: WR, Edge, OT, TE, RB
Projected Selection: Xavier Worthy, WR - Texas
Comment – With Stephon Diggs having bailed out, the Bills need Worthy like blood just about now. The former Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year game is built on speed (4.21 in the 40) and change of direction. Tough and hard nosed, the Bills Mafia will welcome him with open arms.

29 – Detroit - Primary needs: Edge, CB, S, WR
Projected Selection: Jared Verse, Edge – Florida State
Comment – The Lions are clearly in “win-now” mode and figure to be looking to trade-up in this round. If they don’t, they will look to plug a big hole here. Verse is an All-ACC first-team performer the past two years. Plays with a high motor, is relentless in pursuit, and can turn his quickness into power both in the pass rush and playing the run. Came on strong as the season progressed and demonstrated elite prospect skill and production. Has what NFL teams want in an edge defender.

30 - Baltimore - Primary needs: Edge, WR, S, DL, RB
Projected Selection: Chop Robinson, Edge – Penn State
Comment –First-team All-Big 10 last season, he is elentless in pursuit, shows an outstanding second effort if blocked and has a closing burst once free. Most importantly, Robinson has remarkable speed to turn the corner. Has a high ceiling and is an ascending player with the upside of an elite edge.

31 – San Francisco - Primary needs: OT, IOL, CB, Edge, WR
Projected Selection: Tony Fautanu, OT - Washington 
Comment – Three-year starter. All-Pac 12 the last two years, first team in 2023 in addition to earning All-America honors. Morris Trophy Award winner. Fautanu is an ideal fit for a zone blocking scheme where he can get on defenders in a hurry with a quick second burst into space. While Fautanu did play both guard and tackle over his career, he was predominantly on the outside and his tool set matches that.

32 – Kansas City - Primary needs: OL, WR, Edge, CB
Projected Selection: Ladd McConkey, WR – Georgia
Comment – We initially pegged BYU left tackle Kingsley Suamataia in this spot, but if Andy Reid asked Patrick Mahomes his choice you would hear Ladd McConkey rolling off his tongue. PFF notes he was open 86.5% of the time when he was targeted this season. A versatile and shifty receiver, he can play inside and outside, and he has the speed (4.39) to compliment newly acquired Marquise Brown. Patrick gets what Patrick wants.

The tallies by conference read –SEC (9), Pac-12 (7), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), ACC (2), Independent (1), MAC (1).

The tallies by position read – OL (7), WR/TE (7), QB (6), LB/Edge (4), DB (4), DL (3).