College Football Bowl Projections: Clemson up to No. 2 in Playoff
Posted: 2020-12-06

Numerous changes came to this week's bowl projections starting with a minor tweak to the College Football Playoff. Clemson moves into the No. 2 spot over Ohio State at No. 3 because the CFP Selection Committee appears prepared to hold the Buckeyes back slightly due to having played fewer games.

It is a minor change because the only thing at stake is uniform color in the CFP semifinal. I believe Ohio State would get the edge over Notre Dame in this projection because the Buckeyes would be a conference champion, while the Fighting Irish would lose the ACC Championship Game in a rematch against Clemson.

Of course, we will have to wait and see if Ohio State can even play for that Big Ten championship. If Michigan, which had to cancel this week's game with Maryland due to a COVID-19 outbreak, cannot play the Buckeyes on Saturday, OSU would not qualify to play for the Big Ten title under the current rule. Indiana would take its place. It is also possible that the league would find a replacement for Michigan or alter the eligibility rule (which was poorly thought out in the first place) to get Ohio State into the league title game. If not for the eligibility rule, the Buckeyes would have already clinched a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game.

College Football Playoff

DATE GAME / LOC. MATCHUP PREDICTION

Jan. 11

National Championship
Miami

Title game Semifinal winners

Jan. 1

Rose Bowl
Pasadena, Calif.

Semifinal

(2) Clemson vs. (3) Ohio State

Jan. 1

Sugar Bowl
New Orleans

Semifinal

(1) Alabama vs. (4) Notre Dame

There are three new teams in the New Year's Six bowl projections. Two of them used to be regular visitors to games like these. The other school's fans have usually moved on to basketball season by now.

Indiana moved to 6-1 with a 14-6 win at Wisconsin on Saturday and takes the Badgers' spot in the Fiesta Bowl. The Hoosiers are more noted for their exploits on the hardwood and have only been to 12 bowl games in their history. They made appearances in the Peach Bowl in 1987 and 1990, but that bowl did not quite hold the stature then that it does now. Indiana is expected to take on USC, now projected to be the Pac-12 champion. The Trojans replace Oregon in that spot after the Ducks lost again, this time to Cal, 21-17.

Texas A&M won at Auburn, 31-20, and will likely hold its No. 5 spot in the CFP Rankings this week. That was the last dangerous game on the Aggies' schedule, so they are now projected into the Orange Bowl to face Miami, which throttled Duke, 48-0. Texas A&M has been a frequent visitor to games like this. The Aggies have been in 12 Cotton Bowls alone, but their last appearance in a current New Year's Six game was in the 2012 Cotton Bowl.

Northwestern drops out of the projections to make room for Texas A&M, and that causes a bit more shifting around. Florida moves over to the Peach Bowl, while Georgia slots into the Cotton Bowl.

New Year's Six bowl games

DATE BOWL / LOCATION MATCHUP PREDICTION

Jan. 2

Orange
Miami

ACC/ND vs. SEC/Big Ten

Miami (FL) vs. Texas A&M

Jan. 2

Fiesta
Glendale, Ariz.

At-large vs. At-large

USC vs. Indiana

Jan. 1

Peach
Atlanta

At-large vs. At-large

Florida vs. Cincinnati

Dec. 30

Cotton
Arlington, Tex.

At-large vs. At-large

Oklahoma vs. Georgia

Perhaps the biggest game of the day on Saturday was Coastal Carolina's 22-17 win over BYU that went down to the final play. This game did not even get scheduled until Thursday when Liberty had to drop out due to COVID-19 issues with the Cougars taking their place.

Look for Coastal Carolina to get a big boost in the CFP Rankings this week, but I still expect the Chanticleers to ultimately fall just short of the New Year's Six. It will be interesting to see what the CFP Selection Committee does with them. Coastal still has a game left at Troy and the Sun Belt Championship Game against Louisiana.