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Friday Night Lights: Florida State at LOUISVILLE
Friday, October 9 • 7:00 PM ET • ESPN
Early line: Louisville -6.5; Total 58.5.
Super Stats-
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Louisville may be the nation’s most deceptive 2-3 team. The Cardinals own a plus-47 scoring margin and have outgained opponents by 315 yards, yet carry a losing record. They average 38.6 points, 486.0 yards and 7.5 yards per play.
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Three losses—all by exactly three points. Louisville fell to Ole Miss, 41-38; Wake Forest, 30-27; and NC State, 31-28. Seven of the Cardinals’ last eight losses have been decided by three points or fewer, and Jeff Brohm is just 3-7 at Louisville in games decided by three or fewer.
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Friday’s matchup features a bizarre sack comparison: Florida State recorded 10 sacks against Virginia last week—more than Louisville has allowed all season (eight). FSU’s 10 sacks were its most since 1989 and tied the most by any team in an ACC game since at least 2005.
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Ashton Daniels scored every Florida State touchdown against Virginia. His five rushing scores set FSU and Doak Campbell Stadium single-game records and tied the school’s single-game scoring record. He finished with 319 total yards, including 136 rushing.
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Daniels now has nine rushing touchdowns but only six touchdown passes this season. He has thrown six interceptions. Louisville quarterback Lincoln Kienholz, meanwhile, has 15 total touchdowns with only one interception in 139 passes.
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Louisville has surrendered at least 30 points to every FBS opponent this season. Despite scoring 27 or more in all five games, the Cardinals are only 2-3.
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Every Louisville game has produced at least 57 combined points, with four reaching 59 or more. The average combined score in Cardinals games is 67.8 points—more than nine points above Friday’s early total.
Intriguing Facts and Angles-
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Florida State’s defense just went from missing to menacing. After allowing more than 550 yards in consecutive games, the Seminoles held Virginia to 205 total yards, 37 rushing yards and 0.9 yards per carry. The Cavaliers finished 3-of-15 on third down and 0-of-4 on fourth down.
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Louisville is an offensive race car with a leaky radiator: 486.0 yards gained but 423.0 allowed per game. Its offense averages 7.5 yards per play; its defense allows 5.8.
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The Cardinals entered the NC State game leading the nation with seven touchdowns of 50-plus yards, then Isaac Brown added a 70-yard touchdown run. That gives Louisville at least eight long-distance scores through five games.
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Turnovers are Brohm’s traffic light. Louisville is 19-1 when winning the turnover battle under Brohm but only 11-14 when it does not. Three lost fumbles produced 18 NC State points last week.
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Florida State leads the series 18-6, including 7-3 at Louisville, and has won the last two meetings: 35-31 at Louisville in 2022 and 16-6 in the 2023 ACC Championship Game. FSU is 6-4 in the last ten meetings.
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The Seminoles’ 2022 win here also came on a Friday night, when backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker rallied FSU after Jordan Travis was injured.
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Home sweet home, road bitter road: FSU is 3-1 at Doak Campbell this season, averaging 32.5 points while allowing only 14.5. However, the Seminoles have lost 10 consecutive true road games, including this year’s 50-36 setback at Alabama.
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Louisville is 2-1 at home this season, averaging 42.3 points, but its last appearance at L&N Stadium ended in a 30-27 upset loss to Wake Forest.
The Final Edge-
Louisville is 2-3 despite averaging 38.6 points and winning the season-long yardage battle by 315 yards, while Florida State arrives after producing more sacks in one afternoon than Louisville has allowed all season. Something has to give—and given Louisville’s three losses by exactly three points, don’t wander far from the television.
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DID YOU KNOW…
Friday Night Lights Iowa at Washington
Friday, October 9 • 9:00 PM ET • FOX/FS1
Early market: Washington approximately -2.5; Total 41.5–42.5.
Super Stats-
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Welcome to the Big Ten’s ground-floor meeting. Through two conference games, Iowa ranks last in the league in rushing at 48.5 yards per game, while Washington is next-to-last at 78.0. Iowa is averaging only 2.2 yards per carry in Big Ten play; Washington just 2.6.
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Iowa’s rushing offense has fallen off a cliff. The Hawkeyes average 180.2 rushing yards and 5.9 yards per carry overall, but only 48.5 yards and 2.2 per carry against Michigan and Ohio State—a decline of more than 73 percent.
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Iowa has not scored a single second- or third-quarter point in Big Ten play. Its 34 conference points have come in the first quarter (13) and fourth quarter (21).
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The Hawkeyes’ overall defensive numbers sparkle—12.6 points and 288.6 yards allowed per game—but the picture changes sharply inside the conference. Michigan and Ohio State averaged 456.5 yards, including 300 passing yards, against Iowa.
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Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith produced 206 receiving yards last week—seven more yards than Iowa’s entire team managed through the air (199). The Buckeyes outgained the Hawkeyes, 484-238.
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Washington’s only ATS win came in a game it lost outright. The Huskies are 1-4 ATS; they failed to cover in all three victories before cashing as a 7.5-point underdog in last week’s 25-21 loss at USC. Iowa is 3-2 ATS and 1-4 to the Under.
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Iowa has allowed only one rushing touchdown all season. Washington, meanwhile, is averaging only 109 rushing yards overall and has been held to 156 combined rushing yards in its two Big Ten games.
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Washington’s offense and defense have produced almost identical third-down percentages: the Huskies are 18-of-62 offensively (29.03%), while opponents are 20-of-69 (28.99%).
Intriguing Facts and Angles-
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Iowa leads the all-time series 4-3 and has won the last two meetings, including a 40-16 romp in Iowa City in 2024. The seven meetings include three bowl games—the 1982 and 1991 Rose Bowls and the 1995 Sun Bowl.
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The Hawkeyes have not visited Husky Stadium since 1963. Iowa won that game, 17-7. In other words, Kirk Ferentz was eight years old the last time Iowa played in Seattle.
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That 2024 meeting was classic Iowa sleight of hand. Washington outgained the Hawkeyes 393-328, yet Iowa won by 24 points, 40-16, thanks largely to field position, takeaways and special teams.
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Washington is 0-2 in the Big Ten despite losing by only seven combined points—27-24 to Minnesota and 25-21 at USC. The Huskies have been outscored only 52-45 in conference play.
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The Huskies led USC 21-10 in the third quarter before surrendering the final 15 points. A 48-yard fumble-return touchdown gave the Trojans the lead, and Washington’s potential winning drive died in the red zone during the closing seconds.
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Iowa quarterback Hank Brown left the Ohio State game with an injury after completing 12-of-27 passes for 132 yards. Backup Jeremy Hecklinski then went 5-for-5 for 67 yards and directed Iowa’s only touchdown drive. Brown’s status is a major early-week checkpoint.
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Washington owns the quarterback advantage if Brown is limited. Demond Williams Jr. has completed 67.5 percent of his passes for 1,327 yards with an 8-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Iowa’s quarterbacks have combined for 1,053 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions.
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Washington has not exceeded 24 points against an FBS opponent this season. Iowa has held four of five opponents below 20 points. Something figures to remain stubbornly low—hence the total parked near 42.
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Iowa is 4-1, but its three Power Four games have produced only 50 offensive points—16 against Iowa State, 20 at Michigan and 14 against Ohio State, an average of 16.7.
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Both teams face a six-day turnaround. Iowa must travel roughly halfway across the country for a game kicking off at 9:00 PM on its body clock, while Washington returns home after playing at USC.
The Final Edge-
Iowa and Washington enter Friday a combined 1-3 in Big Ten play, with the conference’s two least productive rushing attacks. Better yet, Iowa has been outgained 913-523 in its two league games, while Washington remains winless in the conference despite losing twice by a combined seven points. With an early total near 42, this one has all the markings of a Friday-night fistfight fought in a phone booth.
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DID YOU KNOW…
Friday Night Lights: Wyoming ats SAN JOSE STATE
Kickoff: 9:00 p.m. ET Friday
Site: CEFCU Stadium, San Jose
TV: CBS Sports Network
Records: Wyoming 2-3; San José State 3-2
Super stats-
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One quarterback has outscored an entire offense. San José State’s Luke Weaver has thrown 11 touchdown passes. Wyoming has scored only eight offensive touchdowns of any kind—six rushing and two passing
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The quarterback comparison is drastic:
QB/team |
Pass yards/game |
TD |
INT |
Luke Weaver, SJSU |
255.6 |
11 |
5 |
Tyler Hughes, Wyoming |
141.6 |
2 |
6 |
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Four of Weaver’s five interceptions came in the same game against Fresno State.
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Wyoming is 0-3 on the road, scoring only 23 total points—7.7 per game—and losing by a combined 64 points. Its road scores: 13-35, 10-24 and 0-28.
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The Cowboys arrive after an offensive collapse: zero points, 162 total yards, five completed passes and only 52 passing yards at North Dakota State.
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Wyoming’s season passing ledger is upside down: two touchdowns against six interceptions. The Cowboys are averaging only 14.2 points and 293.6 yards, while converting just 33.9% of their third downs.
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Run-game warning: Wyoming permits 190.8 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. It surrendered 559 rushing yards in the road losses to Central Michigan and North Dakota State alone.
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San José State’s Jabari Bates enters with 487 rushing yards, including 163 against Cal Poly, 119 at Eastern Michigan and 94 against Fresno State. He added 74 on 27 carries in Saturday’s win at Hawaii.
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The common-opponent oddity: Wyoming handled Hawaii 27-10 at home; one week later San José State won 20-16 at Hawaii. The Cowboys produced 387 yards against the Warriors, their only game above 350 this season.
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Under machines: both teams are 1-4 to the Over this season—a combined 8-2 Under mark. Wyoming is also only 1-4 ATS, compared with San José State’s 3-2 ATS record.
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The deeper Wyoming trend is even colder: the Cowboys are 2-8 ATS and 1-9 to the ‘Under’ over their last ten games. They have scored seven points or fewer in six of those ten.
Series nuggets-
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Wyoming won last year’s meeting 35-28 in overtime, despite San José State throwing for 340 yards.
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San José State won the previous meeting in San Jose, 24-14, while outgaining Wyoming 498-366.
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The favorite is just 2-6 ATS in the last eight meetings.
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The series has produced some wild extremes: a 51-44 shootout in 2013, a 20-17 upset by an 18-point underdog in 2017 and last season’s overtime thriller.
The handicapper’s pulse-
This is essentially San José State’s passing efficiency against Wyoming’s inability to score away from Laramie. The Cowboys’ defense has generated pressure and takeaways, but unless Hughes reverses a 2-to-6 TD/interception ratio, Wyoming may need another low-possession rock fight to remain competitive. The most compelling statistical combination is Wyoming road futility plus the teams’ combined 8-2 Under record.
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DID YOU KNOW…
Friday Night Lights: Iowa State at BYU
Friday: Iowa State at BYU
Kickoff: 10:15 p.m. ET
Site: LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo
TV: ESPN
Records: Iowa State 3-2, 1-1 Big 12; BYU 4-0, 2-0
Early line: BYU -10.5; total 47.5. The Cougars opened -13.5, while the total opened at 50.5.
Super Stats-
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BYU is perfect twice over: 4-0 straight up and 4-0 ATS. The Cougars have outscored opponents 149-57—an average victory margin of 23 points per game.
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Strength meets strength: Iowa State averages 197.4 rushing yards and 5.2 yards per carry. BYU’s defense allows only 75 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per attempt.
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BYU is surrendering just 14.2 points and 268 yards per game, including only 4.5 yards per play. Opponents have scored an average of 1.8 third-quarter points against the Cougars.
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Last week’s box-score contrast was staggering. Iowa State amassed 577 yards and 45 points against West Virginia. BYU managed only 216 yards and 17 points at TCU—and both teams won.
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BYU won despite Bear Bachmeier passing for only 62 yards, averaging 2.6 yards per attempt. The Cougars’ defense held TCU to 259 yards, recorded four sacks and produced a 59-yard interception return that created their first touchdown.
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Iowa State’s Aiden Flora produced a video-game line against West Virginia: 212 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns and two touchdown passes. He personally accounted for five of the Cyclones’ six touchdowns.
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Iowa State has scored on all 16 of its red-zone possessions. Eleven ended in touchdowns and five in field goals.
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The Cyclones average 33.6 points and have outgained opponents by 350 yards, but those numbers carry a warning label: they scored 93 points against Southeast Missouri and Bowling Green, compared with 75 in their other three games.
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The Iowa State defense was punctured for 518 yards last week, including 291 rushing yards at 7.3 per carry. West Virginia scored touchdowns on four consecutive second-half possessions before fumbling away its final opportunity.
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BYU has permitted only 57 points in four games. Iowa State surrendered 42 last week alone—and 73 over its first two conference games.
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Iowa State is averaging only 34.5% on third down, yet its defense has limited opponents to 30.3%. The Cyclones also own a 31:17 average time-of-possession advantage.
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BYU is one of the nation’s least-penalized teams, averaging only 3.8 flags and 31.2 penalty yards. That matters against an Iowa State offense facing a double-digit road spread.
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Close-game comfort: BYU is 9-2 in one-score games over the past three seasons. Saturday’s 17-10 escape at TCU was its latest tightrope walk.
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Market message: despite BYU’s perfect SU and ATS record, the spread dropped from -13.5 to -10.5, while the total fell three points. Early money clearly leaned toward Iowa State and the Under.
Series Super Stats-
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Iowa State leads the all-time series 5-1.
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The Cyclones are a perfect 3-0 in Provo.
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Iowa State hammered BYU 45-13 in its most recent visit to LaVell Edwards Stadium in 2023.
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BYU finally earned its first series victory last season, winning 41-27 in Ames.
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The last two meetings both sailed Over, producing 58 and 68 points.
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Iowa State outgained BYU 443-318 in Provo in 2023; BYU returned the favor with a 495-410 yard advantage last year.
The Super Stat-
BYU enters 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS, allowing only 14.2 points and 75 rushing yards per game—but it is laying double digits against an Iowa State team that is 5-1 all-time in the series, 3-0 in Provo, and won its last visit there by 32 points. Something has to give. |
