It can be said that over the last nine years, we proudly identified 190 players out of 254 (74.8%) chosen in the first round of our PLAYBOOK NFL Mock Draft.
This includes 49 of 64 in the last two years, with 40 players matched to their correct teams.
We got off to a blistering start last season, identifying 19 of the first 22 player picked before we hit a 0-6 wall in player selections 23-28.
Still, a near-75% winning track record, good by any measure.
Every team this season seeks hidden talent, but after the combine and individual workouts, there's little more left to discover about this year's prospects.
Nineteen and Counting
We know that for the 19th straight year, the SEC produced the most players selected in the 2025 draft with a record-high 79 picks, with Ohio State paving the way of all teams at 14 players (13 for the SEC).
Who Goes Where
The quarterback position is most commonly picked at No. 1 overall. Since the draft’s start in 1936, an incredible 190 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round, including two in 2025 (Cam Ward and Jaxson Dart), with 36 QBs hearing their names called first on draft day (Ward last season). A QB has been the top pick in six of the last seven drafts and nine of the last eleven. Running backs (23) follow closely behind. Considering it’s been 30 years since this occurrence, it’s safe to say Ki-Jana Carter will likely be remembered as the last running back selected first overall. Defensive linemen (15) rank third.
7 Up
Speaking of QBs, technically, only seven quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall in NFL history have won a Super Bowl for the team that picked them:
• 1970: Terry Bradshaw (Pittsburgh Steelers)
• 1971: Jim Plunkett (New England Patriots)
• 1989: Troy Aikman (Dallas Cowboys)
• 1998: Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts)
• 2011: Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers)
• 2012: Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts)
• 2016: Jared Goff (Los Angeles Rams)
So, what’s in store for the Las Vegas Raiders and soon-to-be No. 1 pick, QB Fernando Mendoza? Only Mendoza and the man upstairs know the answer to that question.
The 2026 draft features 257 picks over seven rounds, yet hundreds more prospects remain—some will be signed as undrafted free agents while others will explore different paths.
Subject to trades, here is Playbook's final analysis of the 2026 NFL Draft, based on anticipated player availability and team requirements.
Teams with multiple first-round picks:
• Jets: 2, 16
• Giants: 5, 10
• Browns: 6, 24
• Chiefs: 9, 29
• Dolphins: 11, 30
• Cowboys: 12, 20
Teams without a first-round pick:
Colts, Bengals, Jaguars, Broncos, Packers, Falcons Note: Each team's needs are assessed under the assumption that no trades occur (although trading is highly likely), with player references and analysis from the Our Lads Football Draft Guide – undeniably the best draft guide available.
In the meantime, enjoy this year's Playbook NFL Mock Draft.
1 - Las Vegas Raiders - Primary needs: QB, DL, OL
Projected Selection: Fernando Mendoza, QB – Miami, FL
Comment- If you think the defending Heisman Trophy winning quarterback isn’t a lock to go first overall, chew on these odds: -20,000-1 to be first player to be plucked. That is an 99.5% implied probability. In other words, he’s in the “ink is bone dry” territory. Andrew Luck at -50,000-1 in the 2012 draft remains the gold standard, but Mendoza is damn close.
2 – New York Jets - Primary needs: QB, Edge, WR
Projected Selection: Arvell Reese, Edge – Ohio State
Comment – Reese sits atop Dane Brugler’s “The Beast” big board and grades elite on Our Lads. Gang Green was 31st in sacks (26) and 27th in pressure rate (28.8%).. He fits like a custom glove.
3 – Arizona Cardinals - Primary needs: QB, DL, OL
Projected Selection: David Bailey, Edge – Texas Tech
Comment – As expected, after Arizona’s defense collapsed late allowing 35 or more points in six of its final nine games, a brutal housecleaning ensued this spring. Pass rush was a major culprit – only Josh Sweat 35 pressures, Bailey brings the juice they need.
4 – Tennessee Titans - Primary needs: Edge, OL, RB
Projected Selection: Jeremiyah Love, RB – Notre Dame
Comment – Love can do it all, run, catch, and block —and gives last year’s No. 1 pick, Cam Ward, the perfect complement. First running back taken this high since Saquon Barkley went No. 2 in 2018. He’s every bit as dynamic.
5 – New York Giants - Primary needs: DL, OL, CB
Projected Selection: Sonny Styles, LB – Ohio State
Comment – The Giants were last in the league in yards allowed per rush and rushing EPA per play allowed last season. Carnell Tate paring up as opposite Malik Nabers is tempting, but Styles is more the “Harbaugh” fit – a tone-setter who fixes the run defense.
6 – Cleveland Browns - Primary needs: QB, OL, WR
Projected Selection: Carnell Tate, WR – Ohio State
Comment – With Chief strategy officer Paul DePodesta gone, Andrew Berry’s love for blue-chip Power Four talent remains. Tate is a perfect, high-floor fit.
7 – Washington Commanders - Primary needs: WR, DB, RB
Projected Selection: Caleb Downs, S – Ohio State
Comment – Downs could be the first safety in the top five since Eric Berry in 2010. “The Beast” raves about his elite tackling and two straight years without allowing a touchdown. Ballhawks who made stops at Alabama and Ohio State don’t last this long.
8 – New Orleans Saints - Primary needs: WR, Edge, LB
Projected Selection: Rueben Bain, Jr., Edge - Miami
Comment – The Saints let both top pass rushers walk and turned to free agency. Bain led all FBS edge players with 83 pressures. Instant impact as their new alpha rusher.
9 – Kansas City Chiefs - Primary needs: DB, Edge, WR
Projected Selection: Spencer Fano, OT, – Utah
Comment – Priority One in Kansas City: keep Patrick Mahomes upright. Our Lads’ top tackle in the class—an absolute steal for Andy Reid.
10 – New York Giants - Primary needs: OL, DB, DL
Projected Selection: Francis Mauigoa, OL, - Miami
Comment – Huge value for John Harbaugh, who demands elite pass protection. Mauigoa surrendered just 15 pressures in 16 games (under one per game). Music to Jaxson Dart’s ears after he was sacked 35 times in 14 games last year.
11 – Miami Dolphins - Primary needs: DB, Edge, WR
Projected Selection: Makai Lemon, WR – USC
Comment – The new regime talks trenches, but Jeff Hafley knows you can’t win without playmakers, and Miami has lost many. Lemon is tough as nails—an absolute dog who elevates the passing game.
12 – Dallas Cowboys - Primary needs: LB, WR, DB
Projected Selection: Mansoor Delane, CB – LSU
Comment – Dallas allowed 6.1 yards per play (2nd-worst), 30.1 points per game (worst), and ranked dead-last in defensive EPA. The long rebuild starts on the perimeter with Delane.
13 – Los Angeles Rams - Primary needs: WR, LB, Edge
Projected Selection: Monroe Freeling, OT– Georgia
Comment – With Rob Havenstein retired and Alaric Jackson carrying massive cap hits, the tackle situation is urgent. Freeling allowed just eight pressures in 14 games as Georgia’s starting left tackle. He’s plug-and-play.
14 – Baltimore Ravens - Primary needs: OL, TE, WR
Projected Selection: Kenyon Sadiq – TE – Oregon
Comment – The best tight end in the class—an athletic freak. Fills the void left by Isaiah Likely. Pairs beautifully with Mark Andrews in new OC Declan Doyle’s 12-personnel scheme. With it, Lamar’s one happy dude.
15 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Primary needs: Edge, DB, LB
Projected Selection: Jermod McCoy – CB – Tennessee
Comment – Missed 2025 with an ACL but posted an elite 89.6 PFF coverage grade in 2024, holding receivers to 50% completions in the SEC. Opposing QBs had a 97.5 rating against the Bucs last season—McCoy changes that.
16 – New York Jets - Primary needs: QB, Edge, WR
Projected Selection: Jordyn Tyson, WR – Arizona State
Comment – Wide catch radius, clutch hands, and playmaking ability. Frequently compared to Stefon Diggs. Our Lads’ third-best receiver is a nice fit.
17 – Detroit Lions - Primary needs: OL, Edge, DL
Projected Selection: Olaivavega Ione, OG – Penn State
Comment – The consensus top guard: a thick, nasty mauler built for a decade of dominance working alongside Penei Sewell. Dave Campbell’s kind of guy. Day-one starter.
18 – Minnesota Vikings - Primary needs: DB, DL, RB
Projected Selection: Dillon Thieneman, S - Oregon
Comment – Only Caleb Downs ranks higher among safeties. Seamless fit for Brian Flores—tackler, cover guy, alley-filler, and blitzer rolled into one.
19 – Carolina Panthers - Primary needs: DB, DL, OL
Projected Selection: Keldric Faulk, Edge – Auburn
Comment – The youngest and one of the most talented players in the draft. Five-star pedigree, third-team All-SEC, and a nasty bull rush. Only getting better—high-upside steal.
20 – Dallas Cowboys - Primary needs: LB, WR, DB
Projected Selection: CJ Allen, LB – Georgia
Comment – Scored plenty (471 points) but allowed a league-high 511. Kenneth Murray Jr. walked—Allen, with back-to-back 88.0+ PFF run-defense grades, brings the needed thump.
21 – Pittsburgh Steelers - Primary needs: OL, QB, DL
Projected Selection: Blake Miller, OT - Clemson
Comment – Draft host team with 12 picks (most in the draft) and five in the top 100 starts strong. Miller: fourth true freshman OT starter at Clemson since 1972. High-character, versatile, high-motor—immediate contender for starting job.
22 – Los Angeles Chargers - Primary needs: OL. Edge, DB
Projected Selection: Akheem Mesidor, Edge – Miami
Comment – Bolstered the line in free agency; now address the edge. Odafe Oweh left, Kahlil Mack is 35, Marcus Dupree is 33. Mesidor’s 92.5 PFF pass-rush grade makes the advanced age (25) look like a breath of fresh air.
23 – Philadelphia Eagles - Primary needs: OL, Edge, TE
Projected Selection: Caleb Lomu, OT – Utah
Comment – Lomu stock soared after a dominant season and combine (4.99 at 313 lbs, 32.5" vertical). Allowed one sack all year and earned first-team All-Big 12. Ready to compete for snaps immediately.
24 – Cleveland Browns - Primary needs: QB, OL, WR
Projected Selection: Kaydn Proctor, OT – Georgia
Comment – Another Andrew Berry Power Four 5-star special. Three years of steady improvement at left tackle; allowed two or fewer pressures in each of his last 14 games. Critical against Watt, Hendrickson, and Heyward twice a year.
25 – Chicago Bears - Primary needs: DB, Edge, WR
Projected Selection: Emmanual McNeil-Warren, S – Toledo
Comment – Ben Johnson wants “trained killers.” McNeil-Warren dominated run and coverage with 83.0+ PFF grades every year (91.9 last season), 16 INTs/PBUs, and 56 stops. “Killer” might be underselling it.
26 – Buffalo Bills - Primary needs: WR, LB, DB
Projected Selection: Omar Cooper Jr., WR – Indiana
Comment – No-brainer. Josh Allen will be handing out cigars. Second-team All-Big Ten, Biletnikoff semifinalist with elite ball skills, strong hands, and Deebo-like YAC explosiveness. Potential steal.
27 – San Francisco 49ers - Primary needs: Edge, OL, DB
Projected Selection: Avleon Terrell, CB – Clemson
Comment – Two-year starter, first-team All-ACC. Undersized but fluid, plays bigger than his frame, and has the pedigree (brother of AJ Terrell). “The Beast” says bet on the quickness and skill set.
28 – Houston Texans - Primary needs: OL, DL, RB
Projected Selection: Kayden McDonald, DL – Ohio State
Comment – McDonald makes it five Buckeyes in Round 1 (Bama and Miami tops with 6). Top nose tackle in the class—exactly what Houston needed after losing Tim Settles Jr. and multiple linemen in free agency.
29 – Kansas City Chiefs - Primary needs: DB, Edge, WR
Projected Selection: Colton Hood, CB – Tennessee
Comment – After trading Trent McDuffie and losing Jaylen Watson and others., the secondary is cartilage thin. Hood’s man-coverage chops and press ability make him a perfect fit.
30 – Miami Dolphins - Primary needs: DB, Edge, WR
Projected Selection: Denzell Boston, WR - Washington
Comment – No-brainer. Our Lads loves the oversized, physical, sure-handed receiver who’s a security blanket and deep threat across the entire route tree. Completes Miami’s first-round WR double-down with an NFL-ready skill set.
31– New England Patriots - Primary needs: Edge, OL, DL
Projected Selection: Cashius Howell, Edge –Texas A&M
Comment – Unanimous All-American, SEC Defensive Player of the Year. Violent bull rush with speed-to-power. Our Lads says ideal 3-4 outside ‘backer—a Mike Vrabel-type player.
32 – Seattle Seahawks - Primary needs: DB, RB, edge
Projected Selection: KC Concepcion, WR – Texas A&M
Comment - Best player available and a luxury pick. Three-year starter, 2023 ACC Rookie of the Year at NC State, Paul Hornung Award winner at A&M. Back-to-back Aggies close out Round 1—most defending champs would kill for this talent.
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The tallies by conference – Big Ten (11), SEC (9), ACC (6), Big 12 (4), MAC (1), IND (1)
The tallies by school – Ohio State (5), Miami (4), Georgia (3), Clemson (2), Indiana (2) Oregon (2), Tennessee (2), Texas A&M (2), Utah (2), and (1) each by Arizona State, Auburn, LSU, Nores Dame, Penn State, USC, Washington
The tallies by position – OT (6), WR (6), CB (5), Edge (5), S (3), LB (2), OG (1), TE (1), QB (1), RB (1), DL (1)
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Teams With the Most 2026 NFL Draft Capital:
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Las Vegas Raiders
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New York Jets
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Cleveland Browns
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Kansas City Chiefs
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Pittsburgh Steelers
Teams With the Least 2026 NFL Draft Capital:
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Atlanta Falcons
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Green Bay Packers
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Seattle Seahawks
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Indianapolis Colts
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Los Angeles Chargers
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