College sports is moving closer to the inevitable: a direct athlete-compensation model. As industry leaders and plaintiff lawyers negotiate a settlement in the landmark House vs. NCAA antitrust case, details of that model are starting to emerge.

The new model: The proposed settlement would (1) see the NCAA pay roughly $2.9 billion in back damages, (2) establish a framework for schools to share revenue with athletes and (3) implement roster limits and scholarship expansion, as Yahoo Sports' Ross Dellenger reports.

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1. $2.9 billion in back damages: The NCAA would pay $2.9 billion over 10 years to college athletes who say they were illegally prevented from making NIL money. The funds are expected to come from the NCAA's annual distribution to schools, mostly from the men's basketball tournament (upwards of $700 million annually). Power schools could see a reduction in distribution by at least $2 million annually.

2. Revenue sharing: Athletes would receive millions in revenue from schools, who would have a spending limit similar to a pro sports team’s salary cap. Estimates put the amount at $17-22 million per program -- a figure that was determined through a percentage (roughly 22%) of an average of Power Four athletic department revenue streams, most notably ticket sales, TV contracts and sponsorships.

3. Roster limits, scholarship expansion: The NCAA currently sets roster and scholarship limits (11.7 scholarships across a baseball roster of 32 players, for example). Under this new model, schools could set roster limits and expand scholarships across those limits. Two power conference administrators told Yahoo Sports that they plan to add more than 100 new scholarships at the expense of $9-10 million annually.
   

By the numbers: Add it all up and the 10-year settlement agreement could cost each power conference school roughly $300 million over the decade, or $30 million a year. For reference, the SEC brought in $852.5 million in revenue for the 2023 fiscal year and distributed - $51 million to each of its 14 member schools.

When would this be put in place? If a settlement is reached in House vs. NCAA, the revenue-sharing model will begin no sooner than the fall of 2025 and could be delayed until 2026. The timing and the settlement hinges, somewhat, on another antitrust case: Fontenot v. NCAA, which seeks billions of dollars for college athletes in compensation from televised broadcasts.