At the start of the 2022 college football season, the dominance of the projected top three teams -- Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia, in some order -- was one of the sport's predominant storylines. (I certainly pushed it quite a bit.) They appeared to be so far ahead of the pack that it was almost impossible to see anyone else winning the national title.

In Week 1, Ohio State's offense stuttered and sputtered its way through most of three quarters against Notre Dame before doing just enough to come back and win. The Buckeyes seemed more vulnerable than expected!

In Week 2, Alabama needed some late heroics from Bryce Young and kicker Will Reichard (and an injury to opposing quarterback Quinn Ewers) to escape Texas with a 20-19 win. The receiving corps looked green, the defense was sloppy and the Bama penalties flowed like Shiner Bock. The Crimson Tide seemed more vulnerable than expected!

Georgia looked almost perfect for three weeks but laid the ball on the turf multiple times and had to battle through a more competitive-than-expected 39-22 win over Kent State. A week later, Kirby Smart's Bulldogs went to Missouri and trailed for 45 minutes before two perfect, late touchdown drives gave them a 26-22 win. The Dawgs seem more vulnerable than expected!

The plot twists have been frequent and intriguing ... and as we sit here, five weeks into the season, not much has actually changed, at least at the top of the food chain. Per the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia currently have CFP odds of 87%, 78% and 64%, respectively; those odds were 79%, 81% and 74% in the preseason. Georgia's odds have indeed shrunk slightly, but the hierarchy has barely changed, even if the narratives have shifted with the wind many times.

The first five weeks of the season have been delightful and weird and often unexpected, but we miss the forest for the trees sometimes. And after another week of upsets, surprises and the laying of eggs, I thought it might be worth stepping back and taking a gander at what has changed since the season kicked off. We'll start with some College Football Playoff-level topics, then work our way down from there.

Michigan has asserted itself (to Ohio State's slight detriment)

Current CFP odds, per the Allstate Playoff Predictor:
Ohio State 78% (preseason: 81%)
Michigan 41% (preseason: 17%)
Penn State 8% (preseason: 2%)

Big Ten title odds (among East division teams), per SP+:
Ohio State 49% (preseason: 54%)
Michigan 22% (preseason: 14%)
Penn State 5% (preseason: 5%)

The nation's top three has not changed much, but from a numbers perspective, the No. 4 spot has become pretty clear for now. Michigan's early domination of weak opponents, followed by its workmanlike controlling of two top-30 foes -- wins of 34-27 over Maryland and 27-14 over Iowa -- has given the Wolverines lofty computer rankings. They're currently No. 4 in both FPI and SP+, which gives them at least a 73% win probability in all their remaining games between now and their Nov. 26 trip to Ohio State, which, from a playoff perspective, might be the most high-leverage game remaining in the regular season.

"One of last year's top four teams is a top-four team" isn't exactly a stop-the-presses kind of development, but there was plenty of reason to wonder about Michigan heading into 2022. Jim Harbaugh had flirted seriously with the idea of leaving Ann Arbor for the NFL, and while he eventually stayed, both of last year's coordinators left, as did ace pass-rushers Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo. Harbaugh also implemented an unforced quarterback change, boosting J.J. McCarthy to the starting job over Cade McNamara.

Facing the No. 1 defense in the country (per SP+) in front of one of the sport's most intense crowds, McCarthy was solid and steady, completing 18 of 24 primarily short passes for 155 yards and a touchdown. He took only one sack and threw no interceptions, and with help from Blake Corum and his 133 rushing yards, he led scoring drives on four of Michigan's first five possessions. The Wolverines were up 20-0 before Iowa finally got on the board in the fourth quarter.

This season was going to be a test of the program's sustainability, and nearly halfway through, Michigan has passed. Obviously there are plenty of potential tests to come -- Penn State on Oct. 15, a reeling but dangerous (to Michigan at least) Michigan State team on Oct. 29, Illinois and its elite defense on Nov. 19 -- but McCarthy is 12th in Total QBR, and the Wolverines are in the top 11 in both offensive and defensive SP+. While Ohio State has not given us much reason for doubt over the past four games, the threat presented by both Michigan and Penn State has at least slightly dropped the Buckeyes' playoff odds.

Tennessee's odds have risen (to Georgia's slight detriment)

Current CFP odds:
Georgia 64% (preseason: 74%)
Tennessee 7% (preseason: 0.1%)

SEC title odds (among East division teams), per SP+:
Georgia 38% (preseason: 41%)
Tennessee 7% (preseason: 2%)
Kentucky 3% (preseason: 3%)

One of my biggest questions for Georgia this past offseason was pretty obvious: How would the Dawgs handle the national title hangover? No matter the talent levels, it is very difficult to repeat as national champion -- so difficult, in fact, that only two teams have done it in the last 25 years (2004 and 2005 USC, 2011 and 2012 Alabama). While competition levels, lost talent and plenty of other factors play a role, it's also simply difficult to keep everyone's attention span where it needs to be after a team has reached the promised land.

For three games, Kirby Smart and Georgia were doing an almost perfect job of avoiding this issue. The Dawgs began the season by obliterating what has turned out to be a rock solid Oregon team, 49-3, in Atlanta, and they quickly put away both Samford and South Carolina. But they were glitchy and unfocused against Kent State, and in front of Missouri's largest crowd in three years, they allowed a fired up Mizzou team to land some shots. The Tigers ripped off five gains of more than 20 yards -- including a 63-yard run by Cody Schrader and a 46-yard pass from Brady Cook to Mookie Cooper -- and scored six times in a seven-drive span. Meanwhile, the Tigers' defensive front outplayed Georgia's offensive line for most of three quarters, and Mizzou ended the game with nine tackles for loss, two sacks and seven quarterback hurries.

Georgia responded just in time. The Dawgs began the game with five straight scoreless drives but drove for four straight field goals to stay within reach, and when it was time to charge back in the fourth quarter, Georgia did exactly that, outgaining Mizzou, 185-30, and putting together two flawless and physical touchdown drives.

The fact that the Dawgs were able to dominate so thoroughly when they needed to suggests this is more of an attention span issue than anything else. But Missouri ranks 51st in SP+, Kent State 107th. Five of Georgia's seven remaining regular-season opponents rank 43rd or better, and three are in the top 15. If the Dawgs keep having to rouse themselves into action, it's going to backfire at some point.

Georgia's relative struggles have opened the door a smidgen for an SEC East usurper, and with Kentucky's Week 5 loss to Ole Miss, Tennessee is now the most likely team to take advantage. Josh Heupel's Volunteers were idle this week after a pair of MAC blowouts (wins by a combined 122-16 against Ball State and Akron) and tight wins over Pitt and Florida. They have their own rugged upcoming stretch -- home games against Alabama and Kentucky, road games against LSU and Georgia over the next five weeks -- so we'll know whether they're up to the task soon.

The Pac-12 has improved (and so have its CFP odds)

Current CFP odds:
USC 18% (preseason: 0.1%)
Utah 12% (preseason: 7%)

Pac-12 title odds, per SP+:
Utah 30% (preseason: 31%)
Oregon 24% (preseason: 26%)
USC 21% (preseason: 25%)
UCLA 21% (preseason: 9%)

At the end of last season, the Pac-12's average SP+ rating was a dismal 2.6, narrowly ahead of that of the American and far behind the other members of the Power 5. USC and Washington were spectacular disappointments, Oregon faded significantly, and Utah was the only team to finish in the SP+ top 25.

A year later, USC, Washington and Oregon have all rebounded to a degree, Utah is still Utah (or at least has been since an annoying Week 1 loss to Florida) and UCLA is unbeaten and just proved its immense upside with a 40-32 win over Washington on Friday night. We appear to have a four-way conference title race, per SP+, and it wouldn't be particularly surprising if Washington is able to jump back in and make it a five-way race in the coming weeks.

Of course, we've seen interesting Pac-12 title races in recent years; what we haven't seen is a genuine CFP push. The conference hasn't earned a playoff bid since 2016, but while ESPN's FPI -- the engine for the Allstate Playoff Predictor -- isn't yet sold on UCLA, it thinks both USC and Utah have solid chances of reaching 13-0 or 12-1 and claiming a semifinal spot.

USC is sixth in the AP poll but has leveled off a bit over the past two weeks. Lincoln Riley's Trojans were the most unprojectable team in the country in the offseason thanks to the combination of last year's awful numbers and this year's incredible class of transfer signings. As expected, they dramatically overachieved projections for the first few weeks of the season, but it might be noteworthy that SP+ has had an awfully good read on them over their past two games.

USC vs. SP+, first three games: +14.4 points per game average projected scoring margin, +31.0 actual scoring margin

USC vs. SP+, last two games: +9.0 average projected scoring margin, +8.5 actual scoring margin

If SP+ has indeed drawn a bead on the Trojans, that's a bad sign for their CFP hopes -- it gives them only a 3% chance of reaching 12-0 and a 16% chance of reaching 11-1 because of rough road games against Utah and UCLA and a visit from Notre Dame ahead.

Utah sent a serious message in pummeling Oregon State 42-16 a week after USC had beaten the Beavers by only 3. They are up to ninth in SP+ and look like the best team in the conference again, but the Florida loss means they almost certainly have to win out to reach the playoff. That will be difficult with tossup trips to UCLA and Oregon and the aforementioned USC game.

The awesome Big 12 has been nearly eliminated from CFP contention

Current CFP odds:
Texas: 6% (preseason: 13%)
TCU: 5% (preseason: 0%)
Oklahoma State: 4% (preseason: 4%)

Big 12 title odds, per SP+:
Texas 26% (preseason: 12%)
TCU 19% (preseason: 3%)
Oklahoma State 18% (preseason: 14%)
Kansas State 17% (preseason: 4%)
Oklahoma 9% (preseason: 55%)
Baylor 8% (preseason: 9%)

The Pac-12 legitimately stunk in 2021, but in the early years of the Pac-12's playoff drought, the drought itself was used as proof of the conference's poor quality. I always thought this was unfair -- on paper, the conference was better and deeper than the ACC in most years, but the ACC had Clemson and was therefore guaranteed an annual CFP spot. If Oregon or USC had dominated a lesser Pac-12 and scored CFP bids, would that have really proven the conference was good?

In 2022, the Big 12 is performing like an extreme version of the Pac-12. Its average SP+ rating is 13.8, second best behind only the SEC. Every team in the conference is ranked 55th or better, and the only reason Kansas (the No. 55 team) is that low is that preseason projections still play a significant role in the ratings. (Well, that and the Jayhawks slipped a few spots after Saturday's mediocre performance in a 14-11 win over Iowa State.)

The conference has six teams in the SP+ top 25 -- more than half of its roster! Every single week features at least one extremely important tossup game between conference contenders. But it's looking increasingly clear that the Big 12 probably won't have a CFP team. TCU and Oklahoma State are both unbeaten, but they haven't proven themselves dramatically superior to their peers, and SP+ gives both only a 1% chance of reaching 12-0. Both FPI and SP+ adore Texas, but despite the Predictor's slight optimism you have to feel the two-loss Longhorns are going to end up well out of the Playoff conversation.

If we had a 12-team CFP in 2022, the general narrative for this conference would shift dramatically. It would be virtually guaranteed at least one participant, and said participant would have an excellent chance of beating anyone outside of the nation's top three. Instead, the Big 12 will probably have to settle for enjoying a rather successful bowl season. A solid consolation, sure, but consolation all the same.

Kansas, Duke and the overachiever club

The SP+ win projections tend to fare quite well overall, but there are always some big swing-and-misses, and there might be even more than normal this year. As far as I'm concerned, that's awesome -- the thrilling and unexpected surge is among the most enjoyable story types sports produce. And 2022 is producing some doozies thus far.

Largest improvement in SP+ projected win total (preseason through Week 5):

Kansas: up 4.1 (from 2.8 to 6.9)

Duke: up 4.0 (from 3.0 to 7.0)

James Madison: up 3.6 (from 5.5 to 9.1)

UNLV: up 3.1 (from 4.2 to 7.3)

South Alabama: up 3.0 (from 5.7 to 8.7)

Illinois: up 2.8 (from 4.4 to 7.2)

Maryland: up 2.6 (from 5.5 to 8.1)

Syracuse: up 2.6 (from 5.2 to 7.8)

Rice: up 2.5 (from 3.2 to 5.7)

USC: up 2.3 (from 7.2 to 9.5)

Tulane: up 2.3 (from 5.4 to 7.7)

Kansas began the season with a 1% shot at making a bowl, per SP+. I was optimistic enough about the Jayhawks' long-term prognosis that I went to Lawrence in the spring to write about head coach Lance Leipold's fantastic culture building and the program's budding optimism, but even I figured the Jayhawks' ceiling for 2022 was somewhere around 5-7.

They're currently 5-0. Granted, every single opponent remaining on the schedule is a top-50 team, so the Jayhawks aren't guaranteed to top 5-7 just yet. (And since history sometimes has a sense of humor, I feel compelled to point out that the last time KU started 5-0, a seven-game losing streak followed.) Still, the odds are quite obviously now in their favor: SP+ gives the Jayhawks a 90% chance of bowling for the first time since 2008. Wow.

Kansas' early success has almost been unfair to some other incredible up-and-comer stories.

Duke won six of its last 29 games under David Cutcliffe, but has an 88% chance of winning six games this year under Mike Elko.

UNLV has bowled once since 2000 but currently has a 96% chance of doing so after a 4-1 start. Hell, SP+ currently gives the Rebels a 7% chance of winning the dang Mountain West!

South Alabama has yet to finish with a winning record in 10 years as an FBS team but now has a 97% chance of finishing the regular season with at least seven wins in Kane Wommack's second year.

Illinois hasn't finished with a winning record since 2011 and has won more than seven games just once in 20 years. Thanks to a brilliant defense that has risen to ninth in defensive SP+ and held Wisconsin to 208 total yards in Saturday's rousing 34-10 road win, the Illini have a 70% chance of finishing 7-5 or better.

Syracuse has rebounded! Maryland appears ready to take a swing at a nine- or 10-win season! Rice has a 55% chance of reaching bowl eligibility! Tulane went 2-10 last year but now has a 57% chance of going 8-4 or better and an 8% chance of winning the AAC! There are some fantastic stories percolating this season. We'll see which ones come to pass.

Oh dear, Wisconsin and Oklahoma (and Colorado State)

As always, for someone to overachieve, someone else must underachieve. Lord knows we've had plenty of those stories this season too.

Largest regression in SP+ projected win total (preseason through Week 5):

Colorado State: down 3.1 (from 5.5 to 2.4)

Louisiana: down 3.1 (from 8.7 to 5.6)

Michigan State: down 3.0 (from 8.2 to 5.2)

Fresno State: down 2.8 (from 9.5 to 6.7)

Nebraska: down 2.7 (from 6.9 to 4.2)

Wisconsin: down 2.7 (from 8.4 to 5.7)

Houston: down 2.6 (from 9.1 to 6.5)

Arizona State: down 2.5 (from 7.1 to 4.6)

Georgia State: down 2.5 (from 6.6 to 4.1)

Utah State: down 2.4 (from 6.9 to 4.5)

"When in doubt, pick Wisconsin." That's my general approach to making sense of the Big Ten West in the preseason, and this year was no different in that regard. Iowa's defense promised to be as good as ever this fall, Minnesota seemed particularly experienced and well-rounded, Purdue is perpetually a hard out and Nebraska seemed capable of just about anything good and bad. It was hard to make sense of the field, but again, when in doubt, go Badgers.

My faith has not proven to be well-founded. Wisconsin fell to 2-3 on Saturday with a shocking 34-10 home loss against Illinois. That was a follow-up to an almost equally surprising 17-14 home loss to Washington State in Week 2 and wound up costing head coach Paul Chryst his job. The Badgers have yet to beat a team that ranks better than 128th in SP+, and Chryst's attempt to modernize the offense with new coordinator Bobby Engram flashed upside but also has produced just 15 points per game in the losses.

Including sacks, Wisconsin rushed for two yards against Illinois. Two!

A lot of first-year coaches have found some rougher-than-expected rough patches -- namely, Jay Norvell at Colorado State, Michael Desormeaux at Louisiana and Jeff Tedford at Fresno State -- but some more well-tenured coaches have stumbled to a rather shocking degree. Chryst is one; Houston's Dana Holgorsen is another.

If there's any consolation in Madison, it's that other Big Ten foes have fared just as poorly early this season. Michigan State was expected to see its record regress in 2022, but Mel Tucker's Spartans now have a 61% chance of finishing under .500, per SP+. Nebraska had hopes of a grand rebound, but even with Saturday's 35-21 win over Indiana, the Huskers have an 88% chance of finishing under .500.

Actually, there's one more first-year coach we should probably mention.

Largest regression in SP+ power-conference title odds:

Oklahoma (Big 12): down 46% (from 55% to 9%)

Pitt (ACC): down 10% (from 18% to 8%)

NC State (ACC): down 9% (from 12% to 3%)

Wisconsin (Big Ten): down 7.6% (from 8.4% to 0.8%)

Ohio State (Big Ten): down 5% (from 54% to 49%)

Michigan State (Big Ten): down 4% (from 4% to 0%)

Arizona State (Pac-12): down 4% (from 4% to 0%)

Brent Venables' first season as Oklahoma head coach began with wins of 32, 30 and 35 points. The Sooners were projected a lofty fourth in SP+ and actually overachieved projections for three weeks. But following a sexy performance and 49-14 win over Nebraska, they returned home and fell to Kansas State, 41-34. Many expected them to rebound well at TCU on Saturday, but instead they caught haymaker after haymaker to the chin. The host Horned Frogs scored 41 points and gained 479 yards in the first half alone, which makes the 55-24 final score almost seem merciful.

After giving up 30 points in three games, the Sooners have allowed 96 in their last two. OU fans are used to watching pretty iffy defenses at this point -- the Sooners have finished in the defensive SP+ top 50 just once in the last six seasons -- but things have turned quickly in Norman now that Big 12 play has begun. Throw in a trip to concussion protocol for quarterback Dillon Gabriel following a nasty late hit, and you've got the first big storm for Venables to weather as a head coach.

Who won the Heisman this week?

We're attempting an experiment this season: What happens if I award the Heisman every single week of the season and dole out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second, etc.)? How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?

Here is this week's Heisman top 10:

1. Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA (24-for-33 for 315 yards and three TDs, plus 53 rushing yards and one TD vs. Washington)

2. Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama (18 carries for 206 yards and two TDs, plus 20 receiving yards vs. Arkansas)

3. Max Duggan, TCU (23-for-33 for 302 yards and three TDs, plus 116 rushing yards and two TDs vs. Oklahoma)

4. Drake Maye, UNC (26-for-36 for 363 yards and three TDs, plus 73 rushing yards and two TDs vs. Virginia Tech)

5. Adrian Martinez, Kansas State (12-for-19 for 116 yards and one TD, plus 171 rushing yards and three TDs vs. Texas Tech)

6. Clark Phillips III, Utah (three tackles, three interceptions, 1 pick six vs. Oregon State)

7. Miyan Williams, Ohio State (21 carries for 189 yards and five TDs, plus three receiving yards vs. Rutgers)

8. Jadrian Taylor, UTEP (four tackles, three sacks, one forced fumble, one 100-yard fumble return TD vs. Charlotte)

9. Garrett Shrader, Syracuse (17-for-17 for 238 yards and two TDs, plus one rushing TD vs. Wagner)

10. Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas State (six tackles, three sacks, one forced fumble vs. Texas Tech)

Any of the top five could have taken the top prize this week. Martinez found his confidence last week against Oklahoma and kept things rolling with a couple of huge runs to keep Texas Tech at bay; this week, Duggan found his confidence against OU, ripping off a long touchdown run and landing a series of haymakers through the air. Meanwhile, Gibbs had fourth-quarter touchdown runs of 72 and 76 yards to put away Arkansas, and Maye's mistake-free early play has put him in elite company.

P5 QBs w/20+ TDs and 1 or zero INTs through 5 games, past 10 years:

Marcus Mariota*
Justin Fields*
Tua Tagovailoa*
Matt Corral
Kenny Pickett*
Drake Maye

*1st round draft pick

They were all brilliant in Week 5. But we're going to give the nod to DTR. The fifth-year UCLA quarterback produced one of his best-ever performances in helping to take down Washington on Friday night in Pasadena. He was incredible with his arm, and he all but put the game away with a cruel and nasty juke in the third quarter.

Here are six more deserving honorable mentions:

• Dante Cephas, Kent State (13 catches for 246 yards and one TD vs. Ohio)

• Jayden De Laura, Arizona (33-for-46 for 484 yards and six TDs, plus 28 rushing yards vs. Colorado)

• Khalid Duke, Kansas State (eight tackles, three sacks vs. Texas Tech)

• Harrison Mevis, Missouri (5-for-5 on field goals, including 41-, 49-, 52 and 56-yarders, vs. Georgia)

• Monty Montgomery, Louisville (seven tackles, three TFLs, two sacks, two forced fumbles and an interception vs. Boston College)

• Caleb Williams, USC (27-for-37 for 348 yards, three TDs and one INT, plus 44 rushing yards and one TD vs. Arizona State)

Through five weeks, here are how the point totals have shaken out.

Jalon Daniels, Kansas (24 points)
Bryce Young, Alabama (17)
Caleb Williams, USC (16)
Stetson Bennett, Georgia (15)
C.J. Stroud, Ohio State (15)
Adrian Martinez, Kansas State (14)
Drake Maye, North Carolina (14)
Hendon Hooker, Tennessee (10)
Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA (10)
Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama (9)
Spencer Sanders, Oklahoma State (9)
Michael Penix Jr., Washington (9)
Max Duggan, TCU (8)
Derek Parish, Houston (8)

Also receiving points: Will Anderson Jr., Alabama (7); Blake Corum, Michigan (7); Bijan Robinson, Texas (7); Chase Cunningham, MTSU (6); Evan Hull, Northwestern (6); Bo Nix, Oregon (6); Anthony Richardson, Florida (6); Clark Phillips III, Utah (5); Raheim Sanders, Arkansas (5); DJ Uiagalelei, Clemson (5), Jaydn Ott, Cal (4); Tory Taylor, Iowa (4); Miyan Williams, Ohio State (4); Jordan Addison, USC (3); Braelon Allen, Wisconsin (3); Dillon Gabriel, Oklahoma (3); Garrett Shrader, Syracuse (3); Jadrian Taylor, UTEP (3); Sam Hartman, Wake Forest (2); Daiyan Henley, Washington State (2); Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland (2); Jacoby Windmon, Michigan State (2); Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas State (1); Todd Centeio, JMU (1) and John Rhys Plumlee, UCF (1)

Daniels still leads the way, but it's been interesting to watch how quite a few quarterbacks have stood out at one point or another. I still assume any or all of the favorites -- Young, Williams, Stroud -- might start to pull away at some point, but they have not done so yet. I'm enjoying this exercise quite a bit.

My 10 favorite games of the weekend

1. No. 14 Ole Miss 22, No. 7 Kentucky 19

2. No. 1 Georgia 26, Missouri 22

3. Coastal Carolina 34, Georgia Southern 30

4. Ball State 44, Northern Illinois 38 (2OT)

5. Georgia Tech 26, No. 24 Pitt 21

6. Tulane 27, Houston 24 (OT)

7. LSU 21, Auburn 17

8. Kent State 31, Ohio 24 (OT)

9. Rice 28, UAB 24

10T. D2: No. 10 West Florida 34, North Greenville 31

10T. D3: No. 3 Wisconsin-Whitewater 34, No. 9 Wisconsin-La Crosse 31

Ole Miss-Kentucky went down to the wire as expected, but here's a quick shout-out to the MAC, which didn't wait until November MACtion to get wild. There were seven games involving MAC teams this week, and among them were two overtime battles (NIU-Ball State and Kent State-Ohio) and games decided by three (Bowling Green-Akron), four (Buffalo-Miami) and seven (EMU-UMass) points.

Meanwhile, the biggest game of the weekend in Division III came down to a 39-yard buzzer-beating field goal by Wisconsin-Whitewater's Jeffrey Isotalo-McGuire, and 2019 Division II national champs West Florida erased a 13-point fourth-quarter deficit and won by the same score with an almost identical buzzer-beater (36 yards from Griffin Cerra).