Regular Bubble Watch 2022 readers know that the NET rankings come up from time to time when assessing a team's chances of earning an at-large bid.

Strictly speaking, the NET is a sorting metric. The ranking carried by an opponent is used along with the game's location (home, road or neutral) to assess how much credit to give a team for a particular win.

In theory, a team's own NET ranking is useful merely for weighing the profiles of its opponents. That's the case in most instances.

Nevertheless, in the 2019 and 2021 selections that used the NET rankings, there was quite naturally a relationship between carrying a good number in the metric and a team's placement in the bracket. For example, here's how Selection Sunday played out last year from the perspective of the NET.

The top 41 teams in the NET rankings all heard their names called. Conversely, no team ranked lower than No. 72 earned an at-large bid.

In between Nos. 41 and 73 is where, in effect, the committee went shopping for profiles they liked. There were some teams with very good NET rankings in that range that were passed over (Penn State at No. 42, Saint Louis at No. 43), and there were teams with lower NET rankings that earned a bid anyway (Michigan State at No. 70, Wichita State at No. 72).

Perhaps the same dynamic will play out this March. Despite not being shown here at Bubble Watch 2022, teams like Mississippi State, Saint Louis and Missouri State all have very good NET rankings, in the 50s. On the other hand, the 70-or-lower rankings of Oregon, Rutgers, Iona and Virginia are being discussed here thoroughly.

Here's our current projection of the bubble:

Locks: 22 teams
The bubble: 39 teams for 25 available spots
Should be in: 14 teams
Work to do: 25 teams

ACC

Locks

Duke Blue Devils

Should be in

Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Wake Forest has often won with defense in ACC play, but when Notre Dame drained 14 3s the Demon Deacons had to come up with a new plan at home. Alondes Williams put up 23 points, Khadim Sy pulled down six offensive boards and as a team Wake rebounded 39% of its misses. Putting up more shots than the Fighting Irish made the difference in the Deacons' five-point win. Steve Forbes has Wake Forest in position to earn a No. 9 seed in its first NCAA tournament in five years. (updated Feb. 19)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Blake Wesley's six 3s and 24 points weren't enough in the Fighting Irish's 79-74 loss at Wake Forest. Mike Brey's team is a game behind Duke in the loss column in the ACC race, but a favorable remaining schedule suggests we might not have heard the last of this group. Unless Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Florida State or Pitt wins the ACC's automatic bid, Notre Dame has seen its last NCAA tournament-level opponent. The Irish could finish the regular season as a projected No. 9 seed and carrying something in the neighborhood of a 22-9 record.(updated Feb. 19)

Work to do

Miami Hurricanes

It's possible Miami is a bit more nervous than you'd expect from a projected No. 9 seed that has a win at Duke on its profile. The Hurricanes will finish with three of their last four on the road, and the team was already carrying a relatively low 60-something NET ranking before losing by three at home to Virginia. UM is 6-5 since the win at Cameron Indoor Stadium, and Jim Larranaga's team was swept this season by both the Cavaliers and Florida State. In retrospect, Charlie Moore's half-court buzzer-beater giving Miami the win at Virginia Tech last month was a significant shot. (updated Feb. 19)

North Carolina Tar Heels
With 21 points and seven assists from Caleb Love, North Carolina followed up one of its worst performances of the season with one of its best. Just three days after a loss at home to Pitt, the Tar Heels recovered and notched their best profile victory of the season with an eight-point win at Virginia Tech. For a UNC team that had fallen down to "last four in" status, the win over the Hokies was crucial. The Heels will be favored to win their next three games leading up to the season finale at Duke. (updated Feb. 19)

Virginia Tech Hokies
Going into their home game against North Carolina, the Hokies had earned numbers in the NET rankings, and for strength of record, that suggested this team was being slightly undervalued by mock brackets. Mike Young really hopes that is indeed the case, because (A) Virginia Tech lost to UNC 65-57, and (B) the Hokies were already in the "next four out" area before the defeat. If the numbers are to be trusted, this is a team that has a slight but not insignificant shot at going 2-0 in upcoming road games against Georgia Tech and Miami; and it appears increasingly likely Virginia Tech will have to do just that. (updated Feb. 19)

Virginia Cavaliers
Bubble Watch wishes to be clear: Virginia really needed that win at Miami. A blind review of competing bubble profiles, if done before the victory over the Hurricanes, would have suggested the Cavaliers were a very long way from the field of 68. Now they're a bit closer, and the upcoming home date against Duke offers still another means of ascent on the bubble. Jayden Gardner was the man of the hour against UM, scoring 23 points and adding seven boards and three blocks. (updated Feb. 19)

Big 12

Locks

Should be in

Iowa State Cyclones
The Cyclones picked a good time to record their most accurate shooting of the season. With a 75-54 win at home over Oklahoma, Iowa State put together two consecutive Big 12 victories for the first time since the 2019 Big 12 tournament. Izaiah Brockington required just 11 shots to score 22 points, and as a team ISU hit 73% of its 2s and 53% of its 3s. At just 5-9 in the Big 12, this is still a team that's likely to finish with a sub-.500 conference record. But the wins over Texas Tech, Texas, Iowa, Xavier, Memphis, at TCU and at Creighton have the Cyclones earning a No. 9 seed in mock brackets. (updated Feb. 19)

Work to do

TCU Horned Frogs
Things are getting a bit tense for a TCU team that was being projected as high as a No. 8 seed earlier this month. Since then the Horned Frogs have lost four of five, and the lone victory in that stretch was a four-point win at home over Oklahoma State. Jamie Dixon's team has had difficulty scoring and, more specifically, holding onto the ball against the defenses of the Big 12. Texas Christian had dropped to the 10 line in some brackets before a 10-point loss at short-handed Baylor, and, at 5-7 in the Big 12, this group still has two games to play against Kansas. There is some suspense building for the Frogs. (updated Feb. 19)

Oklahoma Sooners
It's do-or-die time for the Sooners, who have now lost six of their past seven. The only reason a team that's 14-13 and 4-10 in the Big 12 is being discussed at Bubble Watch is a series of impressive wins recorded by OU. Defeating Texas Tech, Arkansas, Iowa State, Florida and Kansas State will earn you a look from the committee. Now Oklahoma needs to pair those victories with several new ones. The Sooners close with a rematch with the Red Raiders on the road, home games against Oklahoma State and West Virginia, and the season finale at Kansas State. (updated Feb. 19)

Kansas State Wildcats
Rising from "next four out" membership to earn a bid was already going to be a tall order for Bruce Weber's group. The overtime loss at Oklahoma State makes that hill even steeper. Consecutive wins over Texas Tech and Texas form the cornerstone of the Wildcats' profile, with the victory over the Longhorns coming on the road. Those games will always look beautiful, but the danger for Kansas State is that the rest of the profile won't rise to the level needed for those wins to matter. The Wildcats are 14-12 and 6-8 in the Big 12 with games still to be played against Kansas, Iowa State, the Red Raiders and Oklahoma. (updated Feb. 19)

Big East

Locks

Should be in

Marquette Golden Eagles

Shaka Smart's team had dropped three of four before the 11-point win at home over Georgetown, and, yes, the road loss at Butler was a surprise. Even so, the one win in that stretch was a 10-point victory at home over Villanova. Marquette is still the most accurate shooting team in Big East play by a fairly healthy margin. And the Golden Eagles are still earning a spot in the top half of mock brackets on the No. 7 line. There was a slight bump in the road in early February, but Marquette is still on track for a really nice seed in the Smart era's first year. (updated Feb. 16)

Xavier Musketeers
Xavier built an exemplary profile from November through January, which is good because the Musketeers are having a difficult February. Travis Steele's team has now dropped four of five, though the win was a particularly valuable Quadrant 1 victory at home over UConn. That game, plus earlier home wins over Ohio State and Marquette, mean Xavier's body of work still looks good enough for a spot on the No. 7 line. On the other hand, things don't get any easier for Steele's group, which will now visit Providence and host Seton Hall. (updated Feb. 19)

Seton Hall Pirates
The Pirates trailed at home to DePaul in the final minute, but a bucket by Kadary Richmond and a free throw by Jamir Harris gave Seton Hall the two-point win. Kevin Willard's group appears to be on track for a No. 8 seed after wins over Texas, UConn, Xavier and at Michigan. While this is the worst 2-point shooting offense in Big East play not named Georgetown, Alexis Yetna rebounds a fair share of those misses while Ike Obiagu defends the rim masterfully. (updated Feb. 19)

Work to do

Creighton Bluejays
Bubble Watch is sounding like a broken record, but Creighton is still being shown as one of the last four teams in the field. The Bluejays have won road games at Marquette and UConn, defeated BYU on a neutral floor and inflicted a 20-point loss on Villanova in Omaha. At the same time, this is also a team that was being outscored in Big East play until Greg McDermott's group won back-to-back games against Georgetown. Throw in a NET ranking in the 70s, and purveyors of mock brackets see CU's position as somewhat precarious despite the impressive wins. (updated Feb. 17)

Big Ten

Locks

Should be in

Michigan State Spartans
The story so far: Michigan State is still 40 victorious minutes away from being promoted to lock status here at Bubble Watch. When that occurs, Tom Izzo will tie Bob Knight for all-time Big Ten wins. But, even for a likely No. 5 or 6 seed, getting that victory in the loaded top half of this conference is no simple matter. The Spartans fell short by five points at home against Illinois, and now a road trip to Iowa awaits. After that Purdue will pay a visit to the Breslin Center. The win will happen somewhere in here for MSU, and when it does the Watch will be there with the good news. (updated Feb. 19)

Iowa Hawkeyes
The knock on the Hawkeyes used to be that this team had no big wins. Iowa answered that objection with a very big 13-point victory at Ohio State. Keegan Murray totaled 24 points on 8-of-12 shooting inside the arc, and this offense scored more than 1.20 points per possession for the third time in its last four outings. Catching Purdue for the title of "best offense in Big Ten play" will take some doing, but Fran McCaffery's team is suddenly closing the gap. The No. 8 seed currently projected for the Hawkeyes may be on the low side. (updated Feb. 19)

Work to do

Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Rutgers has now played its way right into the field as a projected double-digit seed. The 70-59 win over Illinois at Jersey Mike's Arena stood out because it felt so unsurprising. This is a Scarlet Knights team that had already recorded home wins against Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa and Michigan -- plus a seismic road victory versus Wisconsin just for variety. The Knights are 10-5 in the Big Ten and playing for a bid as they prepare for road dates with Purdue and Michigan. (updated Feb. 16)

Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana appeared on its way to a win at home over Wisconsin, until Johnny Davis scored the Badgers' final 13 points and sent the Hoosiers to their fourth consecutive loss. In those four defeats, IU converted just 42% of its 2-point tries and 25% of its attempts from beyond the arc. To make matters worse, Indiana couldn't grab a win at home even when it outscored Wisconsin on 3s, making five shots from beyond the arc to the Badgers' four. Mike Woodson's group was seen as a No. 10 seed prior to the game against the Badgers, and now an Indiana team that is 16-9 and 7-8 in the Big Ten has a road date with Ohio State. (updated Feb. 15)

Michigan Wolverines
Moussa Diabate lit up the Iowa defense to the tune of 28 points on 12-of-15 shooting in Michigan's five-point victory. Beating the Hawkeyes on the road could be sufficient to push the Wolverines from "first four out" to "last four in" on many brackets. While the 14-10 record may not look particularly impressive, UM has outscored the Big Ten by a larger per-possession margin than Wisconsin or Rutgers. Speaking of the Scarlet Knights, if they do end up earning a bid the entirety of Michigan's remaining schedule will be made up of tournament teams. That's life in the Big Ten, where Juwan Howard's team is on the rise. (updated Feb. 17)

Pac-12

Locks

Should be in

USC Trojans
Andy Enfield's team has rather quietly won five of its last six on its way to what appears to be a No. 6 seed. Since arriving at USC by way of Charleston and Wofford, Chevez Goodwin has developed to the point where on any given evening he's likely to be the leading scorer for a Pac-12 team in the process of locking up a bid. For example, the 6-foot-9 senior posted 24 points and nine rebounds in the Trojans' 10-point win at home over Washington. Note additionally that Southern Cal's likely to look better on defense as soon as conference opponents stop shooting 38% on their 3s. On the whole the Pac-12's averaged just 33% from beyond the arc in league play. (updated Feb. 18)

Work to do

Oregon Ducks
On the same day that Oregon played at Arizona, the Wildcats were named a No. 1 seed in the NCAA's bracket preview. And seeing a desperate bubble team like the Ducks go toe-to-toe on equal footing with a confirmed No. 1 seed was both thrilling and a bit disconcerting. The basketball was amazing, but how did a team as self-evidently good as Oregon get to the point where it's being shown on the "first four out" list? At least Dana Altman's team still has hope even after falling to the Wildcats by three points. Home games are up next against UCLA and USC. (updated Feb. 19)

SEC

Locks

Work to do

Florida Gators
The final seconds of Florida's potentially season-saving 63-62 win at home over Auburn showed once again how success and failure in this game are separated by the tiniest margin. Every fan of the Gators had a sinking feeling when UF gave the ball back to the Tigers on a botched inbounds pass with nine seconds remaining and a one-point lead. But, after a timeout, Auburn failed to even attempt a shot. The floor was stormed and rightfully so: Florida's tournament hopes are still alive, and the win could lift the Gators into "first four out" territory. Give much of the credit to Tyree Appleby, who hit five 3s and hung 26 points on the Tigers. (updated Feb. 19)

American

Locks

Work to do

Memphis Tigers

Penny Hardaway's team has now won six straight, a stretch of basketball that has lifted the Tigers from well off the bubble all the way up to "first four out" status. The difference in this late-season run has been offense. Memphis has rung up 1.12 points per possessions during the win streak by hitting shots from both sides of the arc. Tyler Harris, Jalen Duren, Landers Nolley II and DeAndre Williams have all contributed to a balanced and increasingly effective attack. Now Memphis will go for seven in a row in a showdown game at SMU. (updated Feb. 15)

SMU Mustangs

SMU was being shown in brackets as a No. 11 seed prior to a seven-point defeat at Temple. That's not a bad loss in the traditional bubble sense of that term (it was Quadrant 2), but a win would have been handy for the Mustangs in advance of their bubble battle at home against Memphis. While the collision with the Tigers may be billed as an elimination game, that's a bit too simple. Southern Methodist and Memphis each have a game coming up against Houston, and both teams are on the edge of the field with a fair amount of basketball to be played. A better name for Memphis vs. SMU might therefore be an "enrichment game." It's going to make one profile even better. (updated Feb. 16)

Others

Locks

Should be in

Murray State Racers
KJ Williams made a 3-point play the old-fashioned way with 10.2 seconds remaining to give Murray State a 62-60 lead at UT Martin. When KJ Simon missed a 3 for the Skyhawks as time expired, the Racers escaped with their 16th consecutive win. At 26-2 and with two regular-season games remaining, Matt McMahon's team is a projected No. 8 or 9 seed. If Murray takes care of business and wins out, the team will have an even better case to make that 8 or 9 is too low.  (updated Feb. 19)

Saint Mary's Gaels
Whenever Tommy Kuhse outscores his age, it's going to be a good night of offense. The 24-year-old put up 25 points as Saint Mary's recorded a tough five-point win at home against BYU. As they have throughout the West Coast Conference season, the Gaels pressured the ball and forced a high number of turnovers against the Cougars. SMC has been shown as a No. 7 seed through much of this current stretch during which Randy Bennett's team has won 10 of 12. Saint Mary's closes with a trip to San Diego and a home game against Gonzaga. (updated Feb. 19)

Wyoming Cowboys
Bubble Watch has touched on this previously, but any scouting report on the Wyoming offense really does have to concentrate to an unusual extent on Graham Ike and Hunter Maldonado, period. In the Cowboys' eight-point win at home over Air Force, Ike and Maldonado combined for 56 points on 28 shots from the field. Rest of team: 19 points on 21 attempts. Jeff Linder's team is a No. 8 seed in brackets, and the Cowboys will now pay a visit to Colorado State. (updated Feb. 19)

Boise State Broncos
While they occupy a position on the No. 8 line in mock brackets, Leon Rice's team is playing for the program's first Mountain West title in seven years. The Broncos take pretty good care of the ball and crash the offensive glass, but mostly they've excelled this season with defense. A 14-game win streak spanning the entirety of December and January coincided, not coincidentally with a run of contests in which every opponent failed to score a point per possession. Now Boise State is preparing for a home game against the even more daunting San Diego State defense. Take the under in this one. (updated Feb. 19)

Colorado State Rams
Colorado State is 0-2 against UNLV and 21-2 against the rest of Division I. An easy win over the Rams in Las Vegas means the average margin of victory recorded by the Runnin' Rebels in the two games was just over 17 points. Niko Medved's team was being penciled in as a No. 7 seed prior to the loss, an evaluation backed up by top-25 status in both the NET rankings and in strength of record. Those rankings will drop a notch, but CSU has a chance for immediate redemption in the form of a home game against Wyoming. (updated Feb. 19)

Work to do

North Texas Mean Green
Since losing by six points to Miami (Florida) on a neutral floor the day after Thanksgiving, North Texas has won 18 of 19. The only setback in that span was a six-point loss at home to UAB, and the Mean Green just avenged that game with a one-point win of their own on the road against the Blazers. Tylor Perry hit the game-winning 3 with two seconds remaining, and now UNT is 20-4. Grant McCasland's team will continue to be shown in brackets as the presumptive winner of Conference USA's automatic bid, but this is also a profile worthy of at-large consideration. A blend of NET rankings and the strength of record metric, for example, had North Texas on the No. 10 line even before the win at UAB. (updated Feb. 19)

Davidson Wildcats
Hyunjung Lee required just 30 minutes to score 29 points in Davidson's 21-point victory at home over Saint Louis. The win continued the Wildcats' impressive streak of scoring at least one point per possession in every Atlantic 10 game so far this season. Bob McKillop's team is being shown in brackets on either the No. 11 or 12 line. A decisive win over the tough Billikens could nudge Davidson upward slightly, but for the next three contests, this team is in "games you're supposed to win" territory. After that comes a season finale at Dayton that could potentially decide the A-10 title. (updated Feb. 19)

San Francisco Dons
If you had told Todd Golden before the season that his team would be swept by Saint Mary's, lose at Gonzaga by 16 and suffer a home defeat at the hands of Portland, he probably wouldn't have thought much of his chances for an at-large bid. Yet San Francisco is very much in the mix as a projected No. 10 seed, thanks in part to a defense ranked in the top 25 nationally at KenPom. Even in their five-point loss at SMC, the Dons held the Gaels without a field goal for the last 4:45 of the game. (updated Feb. 17)

San Diego State Aztecs
It's one thing to glance at KenPom.com and see that San Diego State ranks No. 1 in the country for adjusted defensive efficiency. It's quite another thing to be a Fresno State fan who was in attendance at the Save Mart Center and saw the Bulldogs held to 44 points in 55 possessions on their home floor by the Aztecs. Brian Dutcher's team defeated the Bulldogs by 17, and now SDSU has a pivotal date at Boise State. A win against the Broncos would provide a timely lift for a group being shown as either "last four in" or "first four out" material. (updated Feb. 19)

BYU Cougars
The suspense will continue for BYU. A win at Saint Mary's was likely to give the Cougars just enough of a nudge to gain a toehold in the projected field. Instead, Mark Pope's team was edged 69-64. Now the first order of business for BYU is winning two games at home, against Loyola Marymount and Pepperdine. Assuming that is accomplished, the Cougars are at least fortunate in one respect: This year's West Coast Conference tournament figures to have more non-Gonzaga opportunities for good wins than usual in the form of both the Gaels and San Francisco. (updated Feb. 19)

Loyola Chicago Ramblers
The consensus in the wake of Loyola Chicago's loss at home to Drake appears to be that four defeats in conference play in this season's Missouri Valley is one too many for at-large consideration. The committee could, indeed, reach that conclusion. In the meantime, the Ramblers still have three games remaining, and Drew Valentine's team had a fair amount of cushion underneath it as a projected No. 10 seed prior to the loss to the Bulldogs. Loyola was also a solid at-large by the numbers, and a home loss to KenPom's No. 94 team will damage but not destroy those numbers. Bubble Watch is going to take in some more Loyola Chicago basketball and see what happens. (updated Feb. 19)

Belmont Bruins
Casey Alexander's team lost at home by 22 to Murray State in January, and Belmont has been perched just outside the projected field ever since. Over that span, Belmont has won 11 of 12, and now the time has come for a rematch with the Racers. A win at Murray State would join the Bruins' victory at Saint Louis as Quadrant 1 results and give this team its best chance at an at-large bid. (updated Feb. 19)

VCU Rams
VCU has won five straight and eight of its past nine, a run the Rams extended with a 77-57 thrashing of local rival Richmond. This defense continues to look outstanding, as Mike Rhoades' team forces Atlantic 10 opponents to commit a turnover on 24% of their possessions. True, all those takeaways have, so far, come at the price of a good many fouls, and opposing teams are shooting far more free throws than VCU. Still, it's a style that has lifted VCU to "next four out" status in many brackets, as the Rams compete with Davidson and Dayton for the A-10 title. (updated Feb. 19)

Iona Gaels
Iona is 21-5 with five games remaining to be played and a neutral-floor win over Alabama on its profile. If the Gaels were to, say, win out the rest of the way, would that add up to an at-large profile? We might get to find out. Rick Pitino's team is indeed favored in each of its remaining contests. Running that table isn't a foregone conclusion, but it could happen. If this scenario occurs, it's possible Iona's NET ranking will have risen slightly by that time from where it is now, in the high 70s. Some observers have gone so far as to write off this team's chances, but the Gaels are still hanging around. (updated Feb. 15)

Dayton Flyers
The Flyers are trying to play their way into the field from "next four out" territory, and if excellent defense can get that job done Anthony Grant's team should be in fine shape. Over the course of this current four-game win streak, Dayton has held its opponents to just 0.89 points per possession. In the latest victory, a 12-point win at Saint Joseph's, the offense rose to the occasion as well. DaRon Holmes II put up 18 points along with four blocks. Malachi Smith recorded a 16-10 double-double and made six assists. UD appears to be hitting its stride heading toward a season finale at home against Davidson. (updated Feb. 19)