CFB 2021: Teams Most Likely To Make First Playoff Appearance
Posted: 2021-07-27

As we enter the eighth season of the revamped, four-team College Football Playoff, it's become pretty clear that it's an exclusive club. Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma have grabbed the lion's share of bids as the top teams in college football who get a chance to play for the national championship in each of the past few seasons.

In total, 11 teams have made at least one CFP appearance. The previous four schools have made it at least four times each since 2014 and Notre Dame has made two appearances. Six more teams have made it just once: LSU, Oregon, Georgia, Florida State, Michigan State, and Washington. These schools represent the five power conferences of FBS Division I college football and have a general consensus that they were one of the nation's four best teams from their respective season. The Tigers, in their only CFP showing two years ago, ran away with the 2019 national title behind quarterback Joe Burrow.

These five teams, through a mixture of results and circumstance, have the best shot to earn their first trip to the College Football Playoff this season.

Last season's CFP marked the first time that a team did not make its first appearance. Notre Dame, in its second time around, lost in the semifinals to Alabama en route to another Crimson Tide national title. Clemson, in its sixth appearance, lost to Ohio State in the other semifinal — and the Buckeyes were in their fourth CFP.

The CFP is an elite, exclusive club that has been dominated by a handful of teams, and hopefully some new blood will inject more interest in the national title race that's starting to become awfully predictable each year.

Here are the five teams that have the best chance to reach their first CFP for the 2021 season:

5. Boise State

Before you scoff at the notion of the Broncos becoming the first Group of Five team to make the CFP, consider the scenarios that could easily play out this upcoming fall.

Boise State would have to run the table and do so in a convincing fashion. That means piling up big numbers, scoring bunches of highlight-reel touchdowns, and dominating its Mountain West competition en route to an undefeated season.

Before that, Boise State would need to win its non-conference matchups, including a home date with the Big 12's Oklahoma State. The Cowboys don't often face quality non-conference opponents on the road, and the team is replacing several important All-America playmakers on the offensive side of the ball.

If Boise State pulls off a win on the blue turf against OSU and the Cowboys turn around and perform well later in the season (think of Iowa State last year after falling to Louisiana in the season opener), the Broncos' stature looks better and better to a CFP Committee if several other power conference leaders get one or two losses by season's end.

New head coach Andy Avalos is keen to prove that he's a worthy successor of departed coach Bryan Harsin, who had compiled four consecutive seasons with 10+ wins before 2020 in Boise.

4. Penn State

The Nittany Lions had an odd setback on the football field in 2020, notoriously beginning the shortened season with an unfathomable 0-5 stretch before rallying to win their final four games of the season. It was the first losing record for a Penn State football team since 2004.

Odds are, the hiccups that occurred in October and November of last year will not be repeated for Penn State. Quarterback Sean Clifford returns for his third season as the starter under center and will look to continue his dual-threat abilities. He had a shaky start to the year in 2020.

Penn State has several opportunities to burnish its postseason resume for the CFP Committee early in the 2021 season: they open the season with a road trip to Madison, Wisc. to face the Badgers and they get Auburn at home in Week 3. They can survive a loss to Ohio State, who would presumably go on to play in the Big Ten championship game.

An undefeated Ohio State squad and a one-loss Penn State squad can both fit in the CFP, as it's been shown before that two teams from the same conference can qualify in the same year. The program is capable of restoring its swagger from an 11-2 record and Top-10 finish in 2019, and a CFP bid could result if things fall its way.

3. North Carolina

Head coach Mack Brown has North Carolina positioned to enjoy its finest season on the gridiron since 1997, which was ironically Brown's final season with the Heels during his first stint. That year's squad finished with an 11-1 record and the nation's No. 6 ranking following a 42-3 Gator Bowl against then-Big East member Virginia Tech.

Quarterback Sam Howell returns to lead UNC this year after a prolific 2020 season in which he passed for 3,586 yards, fourth-most in the nation. Many other playmakers return, too, making many believe that UNC is the one team in the ACC that has any chance of challenging Clemson.

UNC has home dates with several other upstart conference opponents such as Virginia, Miami (Fla.), and Florida State. A road visit to Notre Dame on Oct. 30 could provide the Tar Heels with a signature win, and Clemson is notably absent from the regular-season schedule.

A respectable loss (and of course, a season-defining win) against the Tigers in the ACC championship game would put North Carolina in a great spot to make the CFP.

2. Texas A&M

Fourth-year head coach Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M have a chip on their shoulder after last year, with many Aggies fans believing that their team deserved the final 2020 CFP spot instead of Notre Dame.

A 52-24 loss to Alabama early in the season ended up preventing the Aggies from reaching their first CFP, but it was abundantly clear that a path exists for Texas A&M even with one regular-season loss.

Alabama visits College Station on Oct. 9 — and the Aggies will be favored to be undefeated in their first five games before this home date. If the Aggies can navigate the waters of the SEC West with an unproven quarterback to replace Kellen Mond (either Haynes King or Zach Calzada), a regular-season loss to the Crimson Tide doesn't automatically knock them out of national title contention.

With a Texas A&M team that may pass the "eye test" as one of the country's best heading into December, a couple other things can happen to help: a Big 12 and/or Pac-12 champion can also suffer one or two losses to open the door. If that happens, don't expect an undefeated Notre Dame to resurface in 2021, as the Fighting Irish have some major holes to fill and a tougher schedule compared to last year's.

1. Iowa State

Iowa State's chances to contend for the 2021 national championship hinge on a returning cast of experienced, accomplished players. Quarterback Brock Purdy is getting preseason Heisman hype, and the defense returns all but one starter from last year's unit that ranked among the nation's top 25 defenses in yards allowed and points allowed, including the country's eighth-best (and the Big 12's best) rush defense (103.1 yards allowed per game).

Running back Breece Hall led the nation in 100-yard rushing games (nine) from last year and hopes to equal or improve on that mark this fall.

Recent has proven that a one-loss team can make it to the CFP from the Big 12. The Cyclones can afford a slip-up to OU on the road in Week 12 (Nov. 20), given that Iowa State can beat the Sooners in the ensuing Big 12 title game a few weeks later.

Iowa State has an early home date with Iowa in Week 2 — a game that the Hawkeyes have won five years in a row. If the Cyclones can get over the hump and defeat their in-state rival, the squad will build some early momentum heading into the Big 12 portion of their schedule. Texas, TCU, and Oklahoma State will all visit Ames this year, giving the Cyclones a shot to perhaps enjoy the greatest season in school history.