We Belong 
Since its inception in 2013, the AAC has produced six New Years Six teams and one claimed national champion, UCF (the Knights won the championship in the Colley Matrix, which is officially recognized by the NCAA) in 2017. The season is the ninth since the former Big East Conference dissolved and became the American Athletic Conference.

In just a few years, the AAC has become the strongest member of the Group of Five. The conference presents itself as a member of the “Power Six” as it views itself among the big boys of college football.

The loss of UConn could easily be viewed as addition by subtraction. They didn’t add much, especially in recent years, and that takes away what had become one of the most winnable games on the schedule.

Conference Call

When the Huskies left to pursue their independence in 2020, the AAC dropped its divisions.  Thus, much like the Big 12, all 11 teams in the AAC will compete for the top two spots in the conference, with each meeting in the title game.

Each of the 11 teams in The American will once again play eight conference games in 2021. The top two teams in the final single-division regular-season standings will meet on Dec. 4 in the seventh American Athletic Conference Football Championship.
 
The schedule features five non-conference games against teams ranked in the top 10 of the final Associated Press poll of 2020 and eight games against top-25 opponents (No. 2 Ohio State, No. 5 Notre Dame, No. 6 Oklahoma, No. 11 BYU, No. 12 Indiana, No. 13 Florida, No. 20 Oklahoma State). Plus, The American will have five visits from Power 5 conference teams to their home stadiums.

In addition, the Navy’s September 11 game against Air Force will commemorate the 20th anniversary of the 2001 terrorist attacks.

Talking Points
• Danger ahead: since the AAC formation in 2014 the conference has struggled mightily as home favorites when coming off consecutive losses, going just 14-38 ATS.  When favored by 10 or fewer points they dip to 4-28 ATS.
• Over the same span, the best role for AAC teams has been on the road when facing foes coming off a SU favorite loss where they stand 25-9 ATS, including 19-2 ATS the past four seasons.
• Worth Noting: The loop has struggled in bowl games the past three seasons, going just 7-13 SUATS, including 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS last season. 

Note: Team write-ups are excerpts from the 2021 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine – on sale at newsstands nationwide or PlaybookSports.com. A breakdown of the numbers includes the team’s national recruiting ranking, of 130 teams, by 247Sports as well as the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. The RPR represents each team’s overall, offensive, and defensive rankings in overall returning production experience among all Group of 5 programs.

CINCINNATI

TEAM THEME: BASKIN-ROBBINS

2021 Recruit Rank: 42 • Ret Starters: Off - *7 / Def - 7 • G5 RPR: Total: 47 (40 O / 49 D)

If you were to put tape over the names of the Bearcats’ opponents last season and simply peruse their stat-logs (visit: PlaybookSorts.com/statlogs to view), you’d insist they were a College Football Playoff team. Nine wins in a row, including a conference title game victory, landed them a ducat to the Peach Bowl against Georgia. Luke Fickell’s crew finished the regular season with more wins vs. Top 25 foes and more wins vs. teams with winning records than did either Notre Dame or Texas A&M. They were ranked in the Top 20 in scoring (37.5 PPG), total offense, and total defense. Only Clemson, Oklahoma, and BYU could lay claim to the same. With QB Desmond Ridder primed for a huge senior season, they become the flavor of the year in college football this season – projected to be the Group of 5 teams in the Top 25.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Cincinnati has been ranked No. 124 and 121 the past two seasons in Most Penalty Yards Per Game.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Temple (10/8)

EAST CAROLINA

TEAM THEME: FOUR DIMES SHOULD DO IT

2021 Recruit Rank: 97 • Ret Starters: Off - *10 / Def - 10 • G5 RPR: Total: 11 (15 O / 8 D)

With just 16 wins in its last five seasons, East Carolina is in serious need of something good happening for the program. The attrition began after Ruffin McNeill’s final season in 2015 when they had a three-year bowl skein snapped in a 5-7 effort. Scottie Montgomery replaced McNeill and posted 3 wins each year in his 3 seasons with the Pirates. Now Mike Houston enters his third campaign, with ECU pretty much in the same boat. We like what Houston did last season, though, as the Pirates led the nation with more starts by underclassmen than any team in the land. With 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense, and No. 10 in overall rankings in both Returning Production and Offensive Production, four tens should do it. That and an offense that averaged 174 rushing yards per game last season - the most since 2007.   

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
After going 1-26 ATS against conference foes with a winning record from 2010-19, the Pirates are 7-1 ATS vs. the same since.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: at Navy (11/20)

HOUSTON

TEAM THEME: HANG ON HOLGO

2021 Recruit Rank: 84 • Ret Starters: Off - *9 / Def - 9 • G5 RPR: Total: 29 (32 O / 31 D)

So let’s see if our scorecard reads right: In two seasons with the Cougars, Major Applewhite was 15-10 and went to two bowl games. In two seasons with Houston, Dana Holgorsen is 7-13 and went to a bowl game with a 3-4 record last year, and was blown out by Hawaii. Despite the disparity, Holgorsen is currently the highest-paid Group of Five coaches in history, hauling down a $20M contract in 2018. From it, he’ll make $4.1M in 2021, $4.2M in 2022, and $4.3M in 2023. Meanwhile, Applewhite is joining Butch Jones at Arkansas State to become his offensive coordinator. It’s hard to go 3-5 with 19 returning starters and the 3rd most Returning Production. The heat is returning QB Clayton Tune on Holgorsen in 2021. Together they will need to be in better harmony this season.    

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Head coach Dana Holgorsen’s teams are 6-21 ATS with rest, including 1-12 ATS when coming off a loss.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY
PLAY ON: vs. Memphis (11/19)

MEMPHIS

TEAM THEME: SERIOUS SLIPPAGE

2021 Recruit Rank: 46 • Ret Starters: Off - 8 / Def - 8 • G5 RPR: Total: 44 (57 O / 14 D)

Sometimes looking at stats can be misleading. Take for instance Memphis’ Returning Production Rankings among fellow Group of 5 teams. While they bring back 8 starters on both sides of the ball, they ranked #57 (among the 62 total Group of 5 squads this 2021 season) in offensive production but #14 on defense. All of which tells us the playing experience on defense is deep, whereas it’s shallow on offense. The fact of the matter is the Tigers took serious backward strides in every key statistical category last season, Ryan Silverfield’s first at the helm with Memphis. Losing a pair of record-setting skill players in QB Brady White and RB Kenneth Gainwell certainly won’t help matters. Simply too many negative vibes to get excited about here.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Tigers are 0-6 SUATS as underdogs in bowl games.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite at Temple (10/2)

NAVY

TEAM THEME: LOST AT SEA

2021 Recruit Rank: 104 • Ret Starters: Off - *6 / Def - 9 • G5 RPR: Total: 61 (62 O / 50 D)

After earning the most improved FBS team honors in 2019 by increasing a net +8 games over 2018, the Navy finished the 2020 season with a 3-7 record. It was just the third losing season for the Midshipmen in the last 18 years. In the process, the Navy started three different quarterbacks in its first three games of the season last fall for the first time since 1992. The good news is over the last three games of the season, the Navy defense held the opposition to under 300 yards of total offense in each game for the first time since 1997. That and the fact that the last time the Middies incurred a losing campaign they bounce back to go 11-2 the following year. And finally, in-game players need to remember this: Navy is 84-5 (.944) under Ken Niumatalolo when entering the fourth quarter with the lead.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Since 2006, the Midshipmen have won 48 one-possession games, which is tied with Northwestern for the most in the country.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: at Memphis (10/14)

SMU

TEAM THEME: SONNY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN

2021 Recruit Rank: 51 • Ret Starters: Off - 9 / Def - 9 • G5 RPR: Total: 55 (53 O / 41 D)

One of the hardest hits football teams suffered last season occurred with the cancellation of various bowl games. The Mustangs were tossed for a loop when their scheduled game against UTSA in the Frisco Bowl was scratched due to COVID-19 protocols. (UTSA then met UL-Lafayette later in the First Responder Bowl). Nonetheless, the 17 wins for the past two seasons have been the most for SMU in a two-year span since 1983-84. Sonny Dykes’ squad returns the third-most offensive line starts in the nation (142). WR Reggie Roberson is back as a “super senior” after missing most of the 2020 season due to injury. However, when healthy, he’s one of the top Group of 5 receivers in the nation. The bottom line is the Ponies backloaded schedule is a gauntlet. But should the defense step up, Sonny could be money in 2021.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Head coach Sonny Dykes is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS at home versus sub .500 conference opponents.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY AGAINST: at Memphis (11/6)

TULANE

TEAM THEME: INCH BY INCH

2021 Recruit Rank: 81 • Ret Starters: Off - *10 / Def - 6 • G5 RPR: Total: 29 (21 O / 48 D)

The Green Wave have gone from pretender to contender under Willie Fritz, and the upsurge is growing higher. That’s confirmed by the three bowl games they’ve attended the past three seasons – a school record. It also registers in the recruiting wars as all 17 of the 2021 recruits signed this year carry 3-star ratings from 246 Sports, as do three of the four transfers joining the class. Fritz’s strength is the ground game, one that has averaged 228 rushing yards per game with the Wave. The good news is their two best running backs return, along with four starting offensive linemen. With no consecutive road games on the itinerary, and behind an offense that averaged nearly 35 PPG last season, watch as they inch closer toward a fourth bowl game in as many years.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Willie Fritz is 25-3 SU and 20-6 ATS against .333 or fewer foes, including a perfect 10-0 ATS away.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PASS

TULSA

TEAM THEME: CALM BEFORE THE STORM

2021 Recruit Rank: 127 • Ret Starters: Off - 10 / Def - 10 • G5 RPR: Total: 36 (40 O / 31 D)

Slow starts held the Hurricane back last season as they averaged a nation-low 1.3 PPG during the first stanza of games – worse than UMass! – and just 8.0 PPG in the first half of the games. Things improved dramatically thereafter, with Tulsa averaging 18.1 PPG in the third and fourth quarters. With 10 starters back on both sides of the ball this season, including its top five wide receivers, head coach Phil Montgomery is poised to raise the bar back to 2016’s level when his troops won 10 games. Big play threat WR Keylon Stokes is back as a “super senior”, ready to lead the attack. And the ground game includes a deep stable of running backs behind one of the top offensive lines in the AAC. Still, the Big Breeze needs to overcome a nasty string of 12 defeats the past three seasons in one-possession losses.  

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Golden Hurricane are 27-7-1 ATS in games in which they score 30 or more points, including 15-1 ATS as a dog.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: at Oklahoma State (9/11)

TEMPLE

TEAM THEME: INOCULATED

2021 Recruit Rank: 117 • Ret Starters: Off - 8 / Def - 6 • G5 RPR: Total: 57 (55 O / 52 D)

Temple was a good indicator of the collateral damage COVID-19 caused last season. For starters, the Owls were down to their 5th-string quarterback for the seventh, and final, the game of the virus-impacted season. Nine different offensive linemen took 70 or more snaps. They dropped their final five games of the season by an average score of 38-14. Making matters worse, Temple lost about a dozen veterans to the transfer portal at the end of the season. As head coach Rod Carey put it, “We dealt with COVID, and quite frankly COVID won.” After dusting themselves off, the Owls picked up nine incoming transfers, nearly all from Power Five teams. The addition of new faces should help reverse the destruction incurred by the virus.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Owls coach Rod Carey is 25-16 SU and 28-12-1 ATS as a visitor in his CFB head-coaching career.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: as a dog at East Carolina (11/6)

UCF

TEAM THEME: PAY ME NOW OR PAY ME LATER

2021 Recruit Rank: 54 • Ret Starters: Off - *8 / Def - 9 • G5 RPR: Total: 49 (29 O / 57 D)

UCF’s coaching carousel continues behind its 4th head coach since 2015, as Gus Malzahn begins a new phase in his career. In the process, Malzahn received a $21,450,000 staged buyout from Auburn, so it’s not as if he’s starting again from scratch. He brings a powerful offensive playbook, which fits like a glove next to QB Dillon Gabriel’s 7,223 career-passing yards (in two seasons). He will certainly need to improve the Knights’ sloppy play on the field last season (3rd worst squad on Most Penalties Per Game) as former UCF head coach Josh Heupel left behind a defense that imploded last season, surrendering 494 YPG. Fortunately, Malzahn brings along Auburn transfer Big Kat Bryant, a second-team all-SEC defensive lineman last year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Knights have averaged 12.6 PPG in the first quarter points the past four seasons, second only to Alabama (12.8). They’ve also averaged at least 40 PPG in all four seasons. 

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: vs. Memphis (10/22)

USF

TEAM THEME: BULL MARKET

2021 Recruit Rank: 64 • Ret Starters: Off - 9 / Def - 9 • G5 RPR: Total: 44 (35 O / 45 D)

The first thing you’ll notice when you peruse the College Football Stat Logs from the 2020 season (read them this year at: PlaybookSports.com/statlogs) is that the Bulls had “bookend stats”, winning the stats in their first game and last game, but losing them all in between. That, in a nutshell, is how the season played out for Jeff Scott, a former co-offensive coordinator at Clemson. He is widely recognized as one of the most respected recruiters in the nation and was just that this offseason with USF’s team recruiting ranking up 38 places. Along with a healthy infusion of transfers, including former Miami starting QB Jarren Williams, look for that bull rush of new talent to start paying dividends in 2021 with Scott benefitting in his second year at the helm following the restraints of a disastrous pandemic last season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Bulls are 14-3 ATS as road dogs versus foes coming off a SUATS win.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: at UCF (11/26)