2021 NFL Season Win Totals With True Strength Of Schedule
Posted: 2021-06-20

This is an important exercise we do each summer prior to the start of a new NFL season.

By conventional measure, weighing an NFL team's strength of schedule is simple and straightforward.

The common approach is to collectively add-up each opponent's win-loss record from the previous season to help determine each opponent's potential win probability for the coming campaign.

But that has little merit this season given each team’s personnel changes, coaching transformations and scheduling nuances.

NFL True Strength Of Schedule Versus Opponent’s Season Win Totals

A different approach that we developed a few years back was simply to assess each team and its opponent's season win totals by tallying the accumulative amount of projected wins for the season ahead.

It's our contention that this represents a truer methodology. After all, which is more relevant: knowing how an opponent fared in last year's battles, or the expected degree of difficulty awaiting them this year?

2021 Las Vegas Season Win Totals

Let's take a look at the opening 2021 NFL season win totals posted by the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas in May.

Teams are ranked overall from top-to-bottom below based on each team's foes projected win totals for the 2021 season, from most difficult to easiest and are extracted from the 2021 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide Magazine.

RANK TEAM WIN TOTAL FOE WIN TOTAL VS DIV  NON DIV
1. LAS VEGAS 7.5 156.6 62 94.5
2. PITTSBURGH 8.5 154 56 98
3. HOUSTON 4 153 51 102
4. CINCINNATI 6.5 152 60 92
5. WASHNGTON 8 151 47 104
6. NY GIANTS 7.5 149.5 48 101.5
7. DETROIT  4.5 149.5 51 98.5
8. BALTIMORE 11 149 51 98
9. KANSAS CITY 12.5 149 52 97
10. NEW ENGLAND 9 148 53 95
11. LA CHARGERS 9.5 148 58 90
12. ARIZONA  8.5 148 62 86
13. GREEN BAY 9 147.5 42 105.5
14. NEW ORLEANS 9.5 147.5 53 94.5
15. CHICAGO 7.5 147 45 102
16. LA RAMS 10.5 146.5 57 89.5
17. TENNESSEE 9 146 41 105
18. PHILADELPHIA 6.5 146 50 96
19. ATLANTA 7.5 145.5 57 88.5
20. CAROLINA 7.5 145.5 57 88.5
21. NY JETS 6.5 145.5 57 87.5
22. DALLAS 9.5 145 44 101
23. MIAMI 9 144.5 53 91.5
24. DENVER 9 144.5 53 91.5
25. SEATTLE 9.5 144.5 59 85.5
26. MINNESOTA 9 144 42 102
27. TAMPA BAY 11.5 144 49 95
28. INDIANAPOLIS 10 143.5 39 104.5
29. JACKSONVILLE 6.5 143.5 46 97.5
30. BUFFALO 11 143.5 49 94.5
31. CLEVELAND 10.5 142 52 90
32. SAN FRANCISO 10.5 137 57 80

As you can see by this method, Las Vegas will take on the most difficult schedule with opponents’ projected season wins totaling 156.5, followed by Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Houston and Washington. On the flip side, San Francisco has the cushiest schedule in 2021, with Cleveland, Buffalo, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis also beneficiaries of a soft slate.

In addition, New Orleans is scheduled to face the toughest non-division schedule with San Francisco going up against the easiest non-division foes. Meanwhile, Arizona and Las Vegas will each tackle the strongest division slate this season, while Indianapolis goes up the weakest division schedule in 2021.

The bad news for the Bengals, though, is they will face the toughest division slate, while the Colts draw the easiest division pairings.

Also note that many of the opening season-win totals carried extra "juice" or vigorish (i.e. Detroit 4.5 “over” -150) For the purpose of this study the extra cost was removed from all season win totals.