Posted: 2021-05-24 Don’t worry about who’s attending voluntary workouts or whether or not the Jaguars sign Tim Tebow. (You obviously haven’t looked closely at players 85-90 at training camps if you think the old man is taking away someone else’s opportunity.) What you should be focused on is the release of the NFL season win totals. People should be breaking down the rosters and schedules and looking for value, before everyone gets their grimy little hands on what you thought was a good number. There are only 31 teams on the board right now, as the oddsmakers are still leery of what’s going to happen in Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers. For a while, Denver’s total was also off the board, as that was the likely trade destination, but those rumors have cooled off and you can now burn your money on the Broncos again. Last year, at this time, we split our four favorite bets (winning on the Browns and Packers overs and losing on the Ravens over and Cardinals under) but ended up going 19-12-1 overall on season bets. Without further ado, here are the best bets, followed by the rest of the teams and a couple of bonuses at the end if you make it that far. Best bets(All numbers come from BetMGM. If you want to wager on the win totals, use this link for a bonus and a free three-month subscription/extension) Washington Under 8 (plus 115) You gotta love Fitzmagic … and apparently you do love Ryan Fitzpatrick as the Washingtons are now -140 (you have to wager 140 to win 100) to go over the number. Ron Rivera overachieved and they won 7 games last year (on a fourth-place schedule) to win the NFC East. Now, Washington gets to play a first-place schedule against the likes of the Chiefs, Buccaneers and Bills. And for every comeback that Fitzpatrick has led for the nine teams that he has been on … he has been on nine teams. Saints Over 9 (-110) The Saints won 12 games last year carrying Drew Brees like a sack of potatoes (no offense to the Brees fans. He’s a Hall of Famer who stuck around one year too long). And his departure means they’re three games worse? (If he had played just marginally better in the playoff game and Jared Cook hadn’t fumbled, they beat the Bucs and Aaron Rodgers has another ring and a new contract). Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill will be just fine. (Fantasy bonus: Michael Thomas has averaged half a catch and eight yards more (7.7 and 92) in games where Brees did not play for the Saints.) Lions Under 5 (-110) I am going to need to see it with the new “bite your kneecap off” coach. And the schedule is a killer as the Lions open with the 49ers, at Green Bay, the Ravens, at Chicago and at Minnesota. They also have road games at the Rams, Steelers, Browns and Seahawks. That said, I do think Goff and the Lions will cover the point spread in a lot of losses. (Getting a franchise left tackle in Penei Sewell with the seventh pick was huge for Goff and something I think the top 6 teams look back on.) Patriots Over 9.5 (plus 125) Remember, there are 17 games this season. So, we’re saying New England just has to go at least 10-7, a year after it was a play away from being 8-8 when their starting quarterback (Cam Newton) was awful his first two games back from having COVID-19. The Patriots also got a lot better in free agency (with Matthew Judon and yes, I liked the Nelson Agholor signing and think he can be a No. 1) and the draft. Cardinals Under 8 (plus 120) The Cardinals added J.J. Watt but play in the toughest division in the NFL. Kyler Murray is one of the most exciting players in the league, but I am still not sold on whether Kliff Kingsbury can get the best out of him or this team. He is not good at making in-game or in-season adjustments. They also could be behind the eight-ball early as they have three road games in the first four weeks. (We should have cashed on the Cardinals under last year and are back like John Wick.) The rest of the leagueChiefs Over 12 (-120) Kansas City won 14 games last year despite some injury issues and now has a rebuilt offensive line and a Top 10 defense to go with the best player in the NFL. The only reason to consider the under is if you think the AFC West is improved this year. I don’t. Buccaneers Under 11.5 (plus 100) The Bucs are the first Super Bowl champ to bring back all 22 starters ever. Which tells me they are going to be focused on the playoffs and not winning 13 games in the regular season. Ravens Over 11 (-110) I have Baltimore winning 12 games, but six of their nine home games are against teams that reached the playoffs last season. Bills Over 10.5 (-150) Buffalo has won double digit games each of the last two years and now gets an extra home game. Browns Over 10 (-140) The Browns were one of the most injured teams last year and they get Odell Beckham back, so there could still be some value here Colts Under 10 (-130) Carson Wentz takes over for Philip Rivers and and gets a brutal schedule (NFC West, Buccaneers, at Ravens, at Bills). Rams Over 10 (-130) The Rams made the big move and traded for Matt Stafford, and when it happened everybody was pretty excited. But people around the league may have a point in that by panicking to dump Jared Goff for Stafford, Sean McVay won’t be able to do as much schematically because Stafford is a lot less mobile than Goff. And that the gap between Stafford and Goff is not that big if you look closer at Stafford’s losses in Detroit. I will still take the over because of the Rams’ defensive stars and improving run game, but I do now have cold feet. 49ers Over 10 (-140) The NFL itself has money on this one, as they gave a six-win team five prime-time television games. Trey Lance, even if you’re a fan, is going to need some time to be ready to play, coming off a one-game season for North Dakota State. So you’re betting on Jimmy Garoppolo and the players around him — which is fine, since the Niners have won 72.7 percent of the games Garoppolo has started since 2017. Seahawks Over 9.5 (-140) The NFC West is going to have three 10-win teams, as Pete Carroll didn’t just forget how to coach pass defense and Russell Wilson could easily have that long overdue MVP season. Dolphins Over 9 (-150) Miami won 10 games while playing more rookies than any other team in the NFL. Giddy up. Chargers Over 9 (-115) Justin Herbert was impressive last year and Anthony Lynn’s clock management and playcalling was so dreadful that it’s probably worth two or three wins. And L.A. gets its best defensive player back in Derwin James. Cowboys Under 9 (plus 125) Dak Prescott is back. Though it wasn’t like the Cowboys were winning before he got hurt last season. They probably get to nine wins, but that might be their ceiling with games at Kansas City, at Tampa Bay, at New England and at New Orleans. Titans Over 9 (-120) People love to doubt Ryan Tannehill and now the departure of coordinator Arthur Smith gives them new reason to do that. Not me. He is the real deal and this team is tough. Their defense has some question marks again but added Bud Dupree; a two-win drop from last year seems like a little much. Especially when they play the Texans and Jaguars four times. Vikings Under 9 (plus 100) That’s a good line. I think the Vikings probably win nine games. It’s hard to have much more faith in Kirk Cousins or Mike Zimmer than that. Broncos Under 8.5 (plus 115) Some people apparently still think this is where Rodgers ends up, as the over-under has been bet up from 7.5 to 8.5. Either that or Teddy Bridgewater has some friends with deep pockets. The defense is definitely better, though. Steelers Under 8.5 (plus 105) Pittsburgh started off 11-0 last season and then lost four of five. This probably is 39-year-old Ben Roethlisberger’s last season ands while he can still sling short passes to his plethora of receivers, I don’t think Najee Harris is enough to take the load off him or a suspect offensive line and defense. Falcons Under 7.5 (plus 120) Their schedule looks manageable enough, and Matt Ryan has a pretty cool new toy in Kyle Pitts. But Atlanta hasn’t won more than seven games in three years and new coach Arthur Smith is under no pressure to win now. Panthers Under 7.5 (-140) The Panthers were a very competitive 5-11 last season (without Christian McCaffrey for 13 games) and I don’t think rolling the dice on Sam Darnold is a bad idea. They even have a relatively friendly opening schedule (vs. Jets, vs. Saints, at Texans, at Cowboys, vs. Eagles). I put my toes in the water, but all of that still doesn’t mean they are going to win three more games than last season. Bears Over 7.5 (plus 105) Matt Nagy may think he can play $10 million man Andy Dalton and groom Justin Fields. That would not be smart. Fields is good enough and smart enough to play now, and the Bears could rely on their defense and running game until he gets comfortable enough to make big plays with his feet and arm. Raiders over 7 (-125) The Raiders have faded down the stretch the last two seasons but still managed to top last year’s over-under of 7.5 wins with 8. Their defense has to be better this season, but is their offense as good with a younger snd cheaper line and no Agholor? No. We’ll still go with the over as 7 or 8 wins is the likely outcome. Giants Over 7 (-140) This would be up in the best bets section if I had more faith in Daniel Jones. They get Saquon Barkley back and added Kenny Golladay Eagles Under 6.5 (plus 125) That would be a three-game jump for Jalen Hurts and Co. That’s not out of the question given a healthy offensive line, a good secondary featuring Darius Slay and Anthony Harris and a last-place schedule. It would also require a leap of faith on new coach Nick Sirianni. Jaguars Under 6.5 (-120) Do you love Trevor Lawrence? Then the over is for you. If you don’t think he is as good as Joe Burrow, that the Jags didn’t address their defense enough and are not convinced Urban Meyer will have the same success in the NFL that he did in college, may we suggest the under. Bengals Over 6.5 (-110) Joe Burrow is the truth. The Bengals were 2-5-1 before he was carted off, so 7 wins is definitely not out of the question. Plus, Zac Taylor probably gets fired if the Bengals don’t win at least six. Trey Hendrickson and Mike Hilton definitely make the defense better. Jets Under 6 (-110) Zach Wilson seems like a reach at the No. 2 overall pick. That said, everyone around the league is super high on new coach Robert Saleh and the schedule is not that scary. But a four-game jump from last year seems ambitious. (A lot could actually be riding on the opener in Carolina against old friend Sam Darnold.) Texans Under 4 (-110) Yeah, it’s a bonfire. Houston dumped talent and made an uninspiring coaching hire and then drafted quarterback Davis Mills with its first pick (which came in the third round) as Deshaun Watson is out with 22 pending lawsuits surrounding sexual-assault allegations. Will any team go 0-17? This one pays 14-1 and I think Houston has a shot. But Tyrod Taylor got a raw deal last year with the Chargers and is probably good enough to get one or two wins, with the help of new defensive coordinator Lovie Smith. Will any team go 17-0? The Chiefs and Bucs would have a small chance to do it (and have you cash in on the 18-1 bet) if they were really motivated, but they probably each lose one or two games in their division alone. |
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