It's hard to overshadow the NFL draft, but the reigning league MVP wanting out of the only organization he has ever known took a run at doing just that last week. ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that quarterback Aaron Rodgers doesn't want to return to the Packers, a decision that could radically alter the balance of power within the league. This feels like a phrase we've said a lot about various quarterbacks over the past two years, but how often do teams have a realistic chance to acquire a player like Rodgers?

Let's get into what would make or break a Rodgers deal, when and why a deal might come, and which teams should be considered out of the Rodgers sweepstakes. Then we'll finish up with seven deals from teams that could be considered viable candidates to make one of the biggest trades in recent league history. A few teams have entrenched starting quarterbacks, but I'll explain why Rodgers would be an upgrade.

Jump to a trade offer:
Browns | Broncos
Raiders | Dolphins
Giants | Titans | Washington

The ground rules for an Aaron Rodgers trade

Let's start with the biggest problem: The Packers don't actually want to trade their star quarterback. Every quote from team president Mark Murphy and general manager Brian Gutekunst over the past few days has made it clear that they don't intend to trade Rodgers. If the organization decides that it is simply unwilling to negotiate a trade, the quarterback doesn't have any alternative. He can't directly force his way to another team.

There are ways Rodgers can pile more pressure on the organization to do his bidding, but they also have consequences. The 2020 collective bargaining agreement makes it difficult for veterans to hold out, as they're fined $50,000 per missing day with no ability for teams to waive those fines if the player returns. If a player is absent without permission for more than five days, he doesn't accrue a season or move any closer toward free agency. Rodgers' deal would toll in perpetuity if he doesn't show up to training camp.

He could retire, but there would be significant financial repercussions. As Jason Fitzgerald noted, Rodgers could be forced to repay his 2021 roster bonus and a portion of his signing bonus. In all, he might owe the Packers nearly $30 million. They team could waive the repayments, as the Colts did with Andrew Luck after their star quarterback retired, but there have been no suggestions that the Packers would be willing to do so. Rodgers has made more than $240 million from his on-field play alone, but would he really be willing to retire while playing at an MVP level and pay the Packers $30 million for the privilege?

Figuring out what Rodgers, 37, is worth on the trade market is also difficult. Quarterbacks do change teams in their late 30s and early 40s, as we saw with Peyton Manning in Denver and Tom Brady in Tampa, but those moves came via free agency. Rodgers' three-year, $73 million deal is eminently reasonable, but he might ask for a raise as part of a trade. Players just don't get traded immediately after winning league MVP. Rodgers was incredible last season, but that run arrested what had been a declining QBR. The Packers likely chose Jordan Love in the first round of last year's draft, in part, because they thought Rodgers was reaching the end of his career as a superstar.

The reality is that the Packers aren't going to just let Rodgers go for a couple of midround picks. To justify this deal to their fans/owners, Gutekunst needs to bring back a significant return. I don't even think two first-round picks would be enough. Given that the Packers will now have to wait a full year before they can even use fresh draft picks, the return should start with two first-round picks and at least one other significant asset: either another first-rounder, a pair of midround selections or a meaningful player. Rodgers doesn't have a no-trade clause, so unlike Russell Wilson or Jimmy Garoppolo, the team can deal him wherever it wants.

One other issue is the Packers' cap situation. They aren't in phenomenal cap shape this year, and things are only going to get worse in 2022, as they are more than $27 million over the projected cap. Trading Rodgers would create room, but they would have to be deliberate about how they handle the finances of this deal.

If they trade him before June 1, they would eat a record $38.4 million in dead money, all on this year's cap. He is currently on the books for $37.2 million, the largest hit for any player in football. Green Bay can narrowly afford to eat his dead money this year if it gets creative, and that would leave the organization in much better financial shape in 2022. More realistically, the Packers will need to wait until June 1 to make a Rodgers trade, which would result in dead cap charges of $21.1 million in 2021 and $17.2 million in 2022.

The other factor with a trade is something only the organization can know: Is Love ready to start? When the Packers initially drafted Love, the most logical timeline suggested that the Packers would insert Love into the starting job after the 2021 season. Rodgers' MVP campaign might not have changed that timeline, but they have now seen Love for a full year at practice.

It's possible that they think Love would be ready to start in 2021; it's also possible that they regret their decision and don't think he is a viable starting quarterback after watching him behind the scenes. The trades I'm going to propose below allow for a few different opinions of Love. Some will make more sense if he's ready to go for Week 1; others are long-term replacements if the organization has soured on him as their passer of the future.

The easiest scenario for me to imagine involves Rodgers staying put. He reportedly turned down an extension, but we don't have any details on what that deal looked like. If the Packers gave him a raise, guaranteed the next three years of his deal -- and added a no-trade clause -- it would lock the future Hall of Famer into the starting role in Green Bay until he's 40. It would also end the Love revolution before it starts. Would that be enough for Rodgers to change his mind? If not, we have to start thinking about alternatives for this franchise.

The teams that can't make a Rodgers trade

Let's assume that Rodgers wouldn't be dealt within the NFC North. The Packers certainly would prefer to deal him to the AFC if possible, but we have to at least consider the other 12 teams in the NFC. The Cowboys, Falcons, Buccaneers, Seahawks and Rams are all committed to a veteran quarterback. The Cardinals and 49ers have their quarterbacks of the future. The Panthers probably aren't close enough to contention to justify trading multiple first-rounders for Rodgers. The Eagles can't afford him, and I can't see the Packers rekindling the Saints' Super Bowl chances by handing them an MVP.

What about the AFC? The Chiefs aren't trading Patrick Mahomes. The Jags and Jets are rebuilding and just drafted first-round passers. The Bengals are one year removed from the first overall pick. The Patriots probably took themselves out of the quarterback market after drafting Mac Jones. The Chargers feel great about Justin Herbert, and the Bills have to be thrilled with Josh Allen.

The Steelers certainly would love to add Rodgers, but they don't have the cap space to swap Ben Roethlisberger and eat his dead money. Indy just acquired Carson Wentz. The last thing the Texans are in a position to do is trade away a bunch of draft picks, and the Packers couldn't make a Deshaun Watson trade while sexual assault allegations against the quarterback are being investigated. Lamar Jackson is a superstar, but the Packers would need to totally change the way they run their offense on the fly if they traded for the 2019 MVP.

We're left with seven teams -- two in the NFC and five in the AFC -- that would be realistic suitors in a trade. I'll sort through them in terms of the various deals, starting with the one I think would be least appealing to Green Bay before working my way to the most appealing option:

7. Tennessee Titans

Packers get: QB Ryan Tannehill, 2022 first-round pick, 2023 first-round pick

Titans get: Rodgers, 2023 fourth-round pick

If there's a scenario in which the Packers want to trade Rodgers and get the best possible veteran quarterback they can as part of the return, this swap makes sense. Tannehill has been brilliant since joining Tennessee, posting the league's fifth-best QBR (73.4) and second-best passer rating (110.6) over the past two seasons. He has topped Rodgers in both categories over that time frame. Tannehill, who is five years younger, was also running a similar offense in Tennessee to what the Packers use under former Titans offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur, so he's as close to a plug-and-play replacement as possible.

For the Titans, this would be a move to get over the hump. Tannehill has been an incredible surprise since joining the organization as part of a salary dump with Miami, but his playoff performances haven't been overwhelming. The Titans relied heavily on Derrick Henry in the 2019 postseason, with Tannehill unable to win a shootout against Mahomes in the AFC Championship Game. In the wild-card round earlier this year, Tannehill led a quick touchdown drive against the Ravens and didn't make it into the end zone again the rest of the way.

He has averaged fewer than 7 yards per attempt in both playoff defeats, and while Tannehill wasn't dragging the Titans down in either game, he wasn't able to take them to the next level. We know Rodgers has that in him. This would be a two- or three-year window to try to win with Rodgers and Henry as a devastating one-two punch on offense.

6. Las Vegas Raiders

Packers get: QB Derek Carr, 2022 first-round pick, 2022 second-round pick, 2023 first-round pick

Raiders get: Rodgers, 2023 fourth-round pick

In some ways, the Raiders make sense as a landing spot for Rodgers. Jon Gruden has called not drafting him in 2005 with the Bucs "one of the greatest regrets in my lifetime." The Raiders have pass-catchers to work with in Darren Waller, John Brown and 2020 first-rounder Henry Ruggs. While Carr hasn't been the problem with their team, Rodgers is a different caliber of quarterback. Moving to Vegas would bring him within a short flight of Southern California, where fiancée Shailene Woodley works and where "Jeopardy!" is taped. If Rodgers actually did want to simultaneously quarterback an NFL team and host a game show, Vegas would be the next-best location short of Los Angeles proper.

At the same time, though, I'm not sure the Raiders fit what the Packers would want outside of moving Rodgers to the AFC. There's not much on the Las Vegas roster that they would want back in a trade. The Raiders have a few players they won't want to trade away (Waller and their recent high draft picks) and a bunch of free agents who haven't looked good on their current salaries. Vegas can offer draft picks, but a trade would imply that those picks will come back somewhere in the 20s.

Carr would head back to the Packers, in part because there isn't a place for him to go elsewhere. Every team in the league is either locked into a veteran quarterback or a young passer on a rookie deal. The only exceptions might be the rival Broncos, who aren't likely to make an intradivisional trade, and the Saints, who can't afford Carr. He has two years and just under $40 million left on his deal, so the Packers could go with Carr in 2021 before moving to Love in 2022. Carr could have some trade value next year if he plays well in Green Bay, but he really wouldn't be worth more than a late-round pick as part of this deal.

I think the Packers would only do this if they were truly convinced that Rodgers wasn't going to ever play for them again. Carr would give them a shot at staying competitive in 2021 if they don't think Love is ready, but this would most likely be a one-year rental of a pretty good quarterback and a bunch of late first- and second-round picks. Other teams have more interesting quarterbacks, players the Packers would want at other positions, and/or more exciting draft picks to send to Green Bay. If Rodgers had a no-trade clause, it's possible he could steer his way to Las Vegas. As is, unless they want to just blow away the competition and offer years of first-round picks, I don't think they're in position to make the best offer imaginable.

5. Cleveland Browns

Packers get: 2022 first-round pick, 2023 first-round pick, QB Baker Mayfield, TE David Njoku

Browns get: Rodgers, CB Josh Jackson

Would the Browns dare consider trading their former first overall pick? They should at least consider the possibility. Mayfield took major strides forward under the Kevin Stefanski regime in 2020, as the former Oklahoma star posted a 16-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio over the final 10 games of the season. The Browns then blew out the Steelers in the wild-card round before giving the Chiefs a scare in Kansas City. Mayfield is mostly beloved in Cleveland, and it would be incredibly risky to trade him away for a quarterback in his late 30s.

The Browns would have to consider it, though, because they're facing a difficult question with Mayfield's future: do they really want to pay Mayfield the going rate for franchise quarterbacks? While he was effective on a per-pass basis last season, the Browns were a run-first football team. Mayfield threw 486 passes, the second-fewest of any quarterback who played in all 16 games and behind only Tannehill. The Browns ran on early downs at the ninth-highest rate in football, and while you could make that same argument for Tannehill, he has been more efficient than Mayfield as a passer.

Mayfield was solid as a rookie, but he was also abysmal during a disastrous 2019 season when his support systems failed. The Browns surrounded him with an excellent offensive line last season, but if he needs that sort of protection to succeed, that would put him in the same category Carson Wentz and Jared Goff. Both the Eagles and Rams regretted those deals. It's not a guarantee that the Browns do the same if they extend Mayfield, but the case for extending him is murkier than it is for Allen or Jackson.

Upgrading to Rodgers would drastically alter the ceiling for the Cleveland offense, which might have a case as the second-best in football with him at the helm. The analytically inclined Browns would be able to create a more efficient attack by dramatically upping their pass rate. These two teams also run similar-ish offenses from the Shanahan/Kubiak tree, which would make the transition easier for both attacks. The Browns will need to find their quarterback of the future, but they'll expect to have four or five more years with Rodgers, who would reunite with former Packers quarterbacks coach Alex Van Pelt in Cleveland.

The Packers would have a two-year window to see if Mayfield is significantly better than their expectations for Love. If the Mayfield of 2020 shows up in Green Bay and even improves further, the Browns can parlay Rodgers into their quarterback of the future, two additional first-rounders and a swap of disappointing former draft picks in Njoku and Jackson. They could also sign Mayfield to an extension now and move forward with him as their star attraction. I think this trade is fair, but I also suspect neither team's fans will be happy with the idea.

4. New York Giants

Packers get: 2022 first-round pick, 2022 first-round pick (from Bears), 2023 first-round pick (conditional), WR Darius Slayton

Giants get: Rodgers

Daniel Jones hasn't shown enough to keep the Giants out of any quarterback trade discussions. I wrote in my column last week about how quarterbacks who start their careers with two below-par seasons across their first three years have struggled to turn into viable pro starters afterwards. Jones already has those two dismal seasons before even making it to Year 3. He has struggled to stay healthy, cost the Giants dearly with turnover problems and hasn't shown any sort of natural feel for dealing with the pass rush. He wouldn't net more than a midround pick at this point, and it's difficult to see the Packers wanting him back as part of this deal.

The Giants aren't exactly close to winning the Super Bowl, but they're desperate to become relevant again. They haven't won a playoff game since the 2011 run to the Super Bowl; their lone foray into the postseason over the past nine years was a blowout loss to the Packers at Lambeau in 2016. Rodgers would inherit a deeper set of weapons than the ones he has in Green Bay, although he wouldn't have anybody on Davante Adams' level in his new digs. Slayton would be a cheap option to add to the receiving corps, although he might not profile as much better than Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

What would make this deal work for the Packers is the opportunity to add one of the juicier first-round picks on the market. The 2022 first-rounder the Giants acquired from the Bears as part of the Justin Fields deal could land anywhere in the top 20. If it were to end up in the top five, the Packers would get a true premium pick for their star quarterback and the opportunity to add a significant asset in next year's draft.

To make this creative, let's incorporate some NBA-style rules for the conditional pick in 2023:

• If both the first-round picks of the Bears and Giants land in the top five in 2022, the Giants don't owe any conditional pick in 2023.
• If both the first-round picks from the Bears and Giants land in the top 10 in 2022 -- or if one of the two picks lands in the top five -- the Giants send their 2023 third-round pick to the Packers.
• If only one of the two first-rounders lands in the top 10 in 2022, the Giants would send their 2023 second-round pick to the Packers.
• If neither of the two first-rounders land in the top 10 in 2022, the Giants would send their 2023 first-round pick to the Packers.

3. Miami Dolphins

Packers get: 2022 first-round pick (via 49ers), 2023 first-round pick (better of Dolphins and 49ers), 2023 fifth-round pick (from Dolphins); 2022 first-round pick (from Steelers)

Steelers get: QB Tua Tagovailoa (from Dolphins)

Dolphins get: Rodgers, 2023 fourth-round pick (from Packers)

We get a third team involved here to have this deal make sense. The Dolphins committed to Tagovailoa this offseason by trading out of the No. 3 overall pick, but the ability to add Rodgers is different from going after Trey Lance or Mac Jones. Rodgers would bring the Miami rebuild to a screeching halt and push the team into the thick of the division race against the Bills. He would suddenly have a receiving corps with Will Fuller, Jaylen Waddle, DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki. No complaints there.

Would the Packers want Tagovailoa in return? Given that they already have Love on the roster, they probably would rather move forward with their own 2020 first-rounder. Getting a third party involved makes sense, and while the Steelers can't afford to trade for Rodgers, shipping off a first-round pick for a possible Roethlisberger replacement in Tagovailoa makes perfect sense. The Heisman Trophy winner could step in as early as this season if Roethlisberger continues to look like the guy who couldn't throw the ball downfield in the second half of 2020.

So, the Packers would get three first-rounders, possibly from three different teams. They would gain some option value by taking home the better of the two first-rounders between the 49ers and Dolphins in 2023, leaving open the possibility to land a premium pick. Ending up with three picks in the mid-to-late 20s is a distinct possibility with this trade, though, which would be a disappointing return for Green Bay's franchise player.

2. Washington Football Team

Packers get: 2022 first-round pick, 2022 second-round pick, 2023 first-round pick, 2023 second-round pick, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, DT Matt Ioannidis

Washington gets: Rodgers

I don't think it's remotely out of the question to suggest that Washington would be among the favorites to make it to the Super Bowl if it pulled off a Rodgers trade. Washington's defense ranked third in the league in defensive DVOA last season and arguably got better in free agency by replacing Ronald Darby with William Jackson. If that seems outlandish, remember that the 7-9 Buccaneers finished fifth in DVOA in 2019, added Tom Brady, then won Super Bowl LV.

Rodgers would be a transformative quarterback for a Washington team that has cycled through starter after starter over the past 25 years. He wouldn't be a long-term solution, but for an organization that has been downright adversarial to its fans during the Daniel Snyder era and wasn't exactly packing the stadium before the pandemic, he would represent a new era. The offensive line is questionable, but he could again look toward a promising one-two punch at receiver in Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel.

Washington would have to pay more than its AFC competition to get a deal done. The Packers would get four high draft picks, a useful defensive lineman in Ioannidis and a short-term replacement to compete with Love in Fitzpatrick, who has a better QBR over the past four years (67.8) than Rodgers (65.6).

1. Denver Broncos

Packers get: CB Patrick Surtain II, WR Tim Patrick, QB Drew Lock, 2022 first-round pick, 2023 first-round pick

Broncos get: Rodgers, CB Eric Stokes

This is the most interesting offer a team could make for Rodgers, in my opinion. The Packers get only two first-round picks, but they get to add young, exciting talent at multiple positions who can step in immediately. If LaFleur & Co. think they can win with Love in 2021, this probably would be the best swap for them to consider.

The Packers would essentially get a third first-round pick as part of this deal by adding Surtain, who was the No. 9 overall selection on Thursday. In return, they would send their own first-round cornerback in Stokes, but the difference between the ninth and 29th picks is pretty significant, amounting to something like the 25th in a typical year. If Surtain pans out, he would team with Jaire Alexander and form one of the best sets of cornerbacks in football. Surtain would also crucially be on a below-market deal for at least the next three years, which is critical for a Green Bay team in rough cap shape at the moment.

The Packers would also add a new starting wide receiver in Patrick, who is a restricted free agent. He was impressive for stretches last season as he filled in for the injured Courtland Sutton, but with Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler ahead of him on the depth chart, his future is likely away from Denver. The Packers could sign Patrick to an extension or use him to net a compensatory pick in the fourth or fifth round down the line. Lock would just be coming over as a backup to Love and wouldn't represent significant pick capital.

The Packers get what amounts to three first-round picks as part of this deal, with the added benefits of Patrick and Lock to put the deal over the top. If you want to be cynical, it might not be all that exciting: an unproven cornerback, a wide receiver with one year of success, a backup quarterback and two first-rounders likely to land late in their respective rounds. Viewed through the lens of getting something for a player who has already made up his mind that he's done with the organization, though, this could be the sort of haul that would help keep the Packers in contention now and for years to come.