The 2020 college football season might have been the oddest we've ever seen, but that doesn't mean my offseason calendar has to change! Last week, I shared my returning production rankings for 2021, and now that the 2020-21 recruiting cycle is (mostly) complete, it's time to share my annual SP+ projections.

As a reminder, I base these projections based on three primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:

1. Returning production. As I wrote last week, I have updated rosters as much as possible to account for transfers, graduation and the announced return of many 2020 seniors. The combination of last year's SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production now make up more than two-thirds of the projections formula.

2. Recent recruiting. Returning production aims to tell us what kind of talent and experience a team is returning. Recruiting rankings inform us of the caliber of the team's potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. They make up about one-quarter of the projections formula. This piece is determined not only by the most recent recruiting class but also, in diminishing fashion, the last three classes as well.

3. Recent history. Last year's ratings are a huge piece of the puzzle, but using a sliver of information from previous seasons (two to four years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right? This is a minor piece of the puzzle, but the projections are better with it than without.

We'll see what impact last season's uniqueness has on this approach. Some FBS teams played as few as four or five games, which means their year-end SP+ ratings still heavily involved last year's preseason projections. But I'm plugging ahead all the same.

I will update these numbers in August, once further transfers, injuries and more can be taken into account. But here are the estimates to date.

A reminder on SP+: It's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. Here are the full rankings:

A quick note: For the three FBS teams that canceled their fall seasons (Old Dominion, UConn and New Mexico State), I am using last year's preseason projections as a placeholder. After their rosters are updated this spring, and after I've had a chance to tinker with some different approaches, I'll produce more 2021-specific projections for the Monarchs, Huskies and Aggies in August.

SP+ vs. conventional wisdom

For the most part, the top of these rankings mirror Schlabach's -- the top two in both lists are Alabama and Clemson in some order, Ohio State and Oklahoma are in the top five of both lists, and Georgia is in the top six in both. There are some disagreements as we scroll further down, however. Let's talk about some of them.

No. 5 Oregon

Despite a good but less-than-elite recent history (they finished 15th in SP+ in 2019 and 17th in 2020), Mario Cristobal's Ducks appear to all be in a row for 2021. They rank ninth in returning production -- quarterback Tyler Shough, every primary skill corps player, every linebacker and all but one key DB are scheduled to return -- and Cristobal's outstanding recent efforts have them sixth in my recruiting rankings. Losing defensive coordinator (and new Boise State head coach) Andy Avalos could have an ill effect here, but SP+ doesn't take that into account.

Ranking them fifth feels rather aggressive, but they'll have every chance to back this rating up when they head to Columbus to face No. 4 Ohio State on Sept. 11.

No. 8 Miami

Someone is aggressively ranking Miami higher than what it has earned on the field? Nature is healing!

The Canes sank to 20th in SP+ at the end of 2020, but they rank third in returning production -- they are scheduled to return 10 offensive starters, and they also added Oklahoma's Charleston Rambo at receiver. While there's a little bit of shuffling on the defensive line, the linebacking corps and secondary are loaded with experience.

If this doesn't convince you The U Is Back, that's fine; I'm not sure I'm convinced either. But if nothing else, this is a reminder that the ceiling the Canes hinted at during portions of 2020 could be more sustainable this time around.

No. 9 Wisconsin and No. 14 Penn State

I have absolutely no idea what to make of Wisconsin heading into 2021. The Badgers' defense will be outstanding once again, but the offense is a mystery. Wisconsin played seven games in 2020 and scored 40+ in three and single digits in three. Ranking them 36th on offense is a decent splitting of the difference, but any top-10 potential the Badgers have will require a more extended glimpse of the Graham Mertz we saw at the beginning of the 2020 season.

Penn State, meanwhile, wants to lean primarily on what we saw at the end. The Nittany Lions weren't as bad as their 0-5 start suggested (they outgained decent-to-good opponents by 200+ yards in two of those losses), and James Franklin made a bold offensive coordinator change, dropping Kirk Ciarrocca after just one year for Mike Yurcich. He'll need to do some great things with QB Sean Clifford for PSU to bounce back to its top-10 ways.

No. 13 Texas A&M

Jimbo Fisher's Aggies finished in the AP top four last season for the first time since winning the national title in 1939. SP+ didn't like them quite that much though, ranking them ninth, and now they're among the only teams in their portion of the rankings that has to replace their starting QB. That alone explains their potential drop here.

That said, the defense should be elite or very close to it, and if the new QB (likely either Zach Calzada or Haynes King) plays at a close level to what Kellen Mond established -- a high bar, but not ridiculously high -- they'll have a solid chance at overachieving.

No. 17 USC

Thanks to ridiculously high returning production averages, SP+ is very bullish on the Pac-12 this year, not only ranking Oregon in the top five but also placing five more teams between 11th and 21st. This, combined with dreadfully low projections for both South Carolina and Vanderbilt, is enough to give the Pac-12 a higher average SP+ rating than the SEC, even if it has fewer national title contenders.

Unlike fellow early-2000s power Miami, however, SP+ doesn't necessarily give USC benefit of the doubt. The Trojans finished last season 13th in SP+ and return quarterback Kedon Slovis, but they have to replace their two most heavily-targeted receivers, and they rank a middling 67th in returning production. The upside is there, and the defense could improve further, but they've still got work to do to return to the top 10.

No. 18 Arizona State, No. 19 Utah and No. 21 UCLA

The Sun Devils, Utes and Bruins went a combined 8-8 in 2020, so you can be forgiven if you're not necessarily thinking big things for any of them this coming fall. But they all have quite a bit of upside.

ASU had an unexpectedly brilliant run game, and backs DeaMonte Trayanum and Rachaad White both return, along with four offensive line starters. They also defended the pass well, and while they do lose two starters in the secondary, a front seven that returns almost literally everyone could pick up the slack.

Utah, meanwhile, has finished in the SP+ top 25 for four straight years and is scheduled to return 10 defensive starters and five offensive line starters. If a massively redesigned offensive backfield holds up -- quarterbacks Charlie Brewer (Baylor) and Ja'Quinden Jackson (Texas) and running backs T.J. Pledger (Oklahoma) and Chris Curry (LSU) all arrive via the transfer portal -- the Utes could be the best team in a Pac-12 South logjam.

UCLA feels like the biggest reach here, but you can at least understand the logic: The Bruins jumped from 79th to 46th in SP+ last season, and despite a 3-4 final record, their four losses came by a combined 15 points. And they have the highest returning production figure among power conference teams.

No. 23 Michigan

SP+ is not giving up on Jim Harbaugh just yet. His Wolverines finished 2-4 in 2020, and part of the reason they only fell to 33rd in the final rankings is that their rating was still propped up by preseason ratings because of the low game total. But the combination of strong recent history (they ranked between sixth and 13th in SP+ every year from 2015-19) and solid recruiting (11th in my recruiting rankings) propped them up just enough to squeeze into the top 25.

You say you'll believe it when you see it? I concur. But at the very least, the Wolverines will be far more experienced at QB, in the skill corps and in the secondary.

No. 25 Notre Dame

Brian Kelly's Fighting Irish have finished in the SP+ top 20 for six straight years -- including when they lost a ton of close, unlikely games and finished 4-8 in 2016 -- so dropping them out of the top 20 is as aggressive as putting Oregon in the top five.

Why did they end up this low despite top-10 level recruiting? A combination of two things: SP+ utterly hated their performances against Clemson and Alabama to finish 2020, dropping them from fourth in early December to 16th. Then they lost more production than almost anyone in the country: They rank ahead of only four teams in the category (BYU, Northwestern, Temple and South Carolina). I'll still assume they play at a top-20 level, but this does suggest that their floor might temporarily be lower than we've seen in recent years.

No. 27 Indiana

Tom Allen's Hoosiers were among the best stories of 2020, finishing in the AP top 15 for the first time since their 1967 Rose Bowl run. That antisocial SP+ didn't love them, though, ranking them just 24th overall.

They do rank 24th in returning production, bringing back quarterback Michael Penix Jr., receiver Ty Fryfogle and about eight defensive starters. But the boost from that is undone by a recruiting ranking of 51st. Allen has built a sturdy, confident program without the benefit of big-time recruiting rankings, but the margin for error is always slimmer without the blue-chippers.

No. 37 Coastal Carolina and No. 42 Liberty

The Chants and the Flames finished the season 14th and 17th, respectively, in the AP rankings, but only 25th and 44th in SP+. That's pretty common, of course, with teams with high win percentages and low strength-of-schedule ratings.

They're both in the returning production top-25 in 2021 and could very well match much of 2020's output. They are favored in 21 of their 24 combined games, so they're both likely to have huge seasons once again, even if SP+ only likes them and doesn't love them.