There is a simple, logical and unlikely to be implemented solution to the Houston Texans’ crisis with quarterback Deshaun Watson. There are also much more disruptive possibilities, including trade scenarios like the five blockbusters we’ll reveal in this divisional-round playoff edition of the Pick Six column. Last week, we explained why Watson absolutely could force a trade if he were serious enough about his grievances. Subsequent reports have suggested Watson is indeed serious. He could be bluffing. Perhaps not. We do know this: While the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers were advancing to the championship round, Watson continued to dominate the NFL conversation.

The five Watson blockbusters include deals involving a range of teams. The full Pick Six menu emerging from this divisional-round weekend:

• Five sizzling Deshaun Watson trade packages
• Huge difference between Brady and Rodgers
• Early thoughts on AFC, NFC title games
• What the Chiefs’ win says about Andy Reid’s system
• Bills cornerback makes huge play (here’s how huge)
• Cook Index: Stacking all eight divisional teams

1. The gulf between Deshaun Watson and the Texans has grown. Here are the options and, as promised, five blockbuster trade proposals.

Let’s jump into the blockbuster trade proposals first. I’ve arranged these by 2021 first-round draft positioning of the acquiring teams, on the logic that higher picks would be of greater value for the Texans, who would need to land a quarterback in the absence of Watson.

We assume the Jacksonville Jaguars will use the first pick on Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence, instead of immediately creating unrealistic expectations by adding Watson. We assume the price for acquiring Watson will be higher for Houston’s brethren in the AFC. And we realize Watson’s no-trade clause would let him screen potential suitors. Finally, while it’s easy to find salary-cap reasons for why certain trades might not work, it’s also easy for teams to find ways around those problems, should sufficient motivation exist.

My partner on The Football GM Podcast, former NFL executive of the year Randy Mueller, shared this trade for the Jets. He set the price too high on purpose, because he would prefer repairing the relationship with Watson or waiting out the quarterback to shipping away the best thing Houston has going. This deal would dent the draft capital Jets general manager Joe Douglas has accumulated, but Watson would bring instant star power to the only franchise without a Pro Bowl selection on offense over the past five seasons.

“I wouldn’t do that if I were the Jets because they have (Mike) LaFleur coming in as offensive coordinator and they will probably feel Sam Darnold can be salvaged to some degree,” an exec said. “I think Darnold has a chance if he gets out from under what he’s been under. They need to fill that roster.”

The Texans went 4-12 last season even though Watson ranked first in expected points added (EPA) per pass attempt. The Miami Dolphins went 10-6 even though Tua Tagovailoa, their rookie quarterback, ranked 29th in that category (Ryan Fitzpatrick was 17th). Imagine how many games the Dolphins might win with Watson throwing passes for them.

“This works for Houston if they like Tua,” an exec said.

Houston would be buying back the third pick in April’s draft, which Miami acquired in the Laremy Tunsil trade. The 2023 second-round pick involved in this deal would upgrade to a first-round choice if the Dolphins reached the playoffs. Right now, the Dolphins might not know whether they have a quarterback good enough to overtake Buffalo in the AFC East and contend for a championship. Watson would make them such a team.

“The one constant with Tua, even though he was up and down, is his accuracy,” an offensive coach said. “From that standpoint, you can say he’s got a chance.”

Watson goes home to Atlanta in this scenario, revitalizing a franchise whose owner, Arthur Blank, hopes for a quick return to relevance under new coach Arthur Smith and new GM Terry Fontenot. The Texans would not get Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan in return, preferring instead to use the No. 4 pick on a Watson replacement. The Falcons could try to trade Ryan to another team (San Francisco?) if the Texans were not interested, perhaps as part of a three-team deal. The 2023 second-round choice headed to Houston in this deal could upgrade to a first-rounder if the Falcons reached the playoffs.

“Matt Ryan would be a hard sell in Houston with a new coach,” an exec said.

Matthew Stafford would head home to Texas under this scenario, finally escaping Detroit, only to land with a franchise that appears to have sunk lower. Houston would regain some of the draft capital needed to refortify its offensive line and defense over the next couple of seasons. Would Watson approve a trade to Detroit? That’s a question for another day.

“I like this deal best of the five,” an exec said. “Stafford is only 32 and can play another five years, at least. You might not get a quarterback at seven if you are Houston, but you wouldn’t need one.”

The Texans would be getting from the 49ers a premium pass rusher to succeed J.J. Watt, plus a quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo who would be familiar to new GM Nick Caserio, a fellow New England alum. The 2022 conditional second-round pick would upgrade to a first-rounder if the 49ers reached the playoffs with Watson. This deal was tough on a couple of fronts. Garoppolo and the 12th pick might not sufficiently replace Watson, while the 49ers would be losing a dominant pass rusher one year after unloading DeForest Buckner.

Three paths forward for Watson

The Texans could solve this problem, it seems, in a single news release announcing the hiring of a head coach with impeccable integrity and credibility — Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier comes to mind as an example — while announcing a mutual parting of the ways involving executive vice president Jack Easterby. Owner Cal McNair seems all-in with Easterby, so the second part of this scenario might be unlikely. But if the Texans were to hire an especially credible coach who reached out to Watson in a respectful manner, the tensions that have persisted would seem to dissipate some, unless Watson and his agents were dead set on forcing their way out, in which case public opinion could turn against the quarterback.

Another option would include the Texans trading Watson for a bounty in a James Harden-type deal that would turn Watson and his agents into trailblazers who toppled the established NFL system of player control. Football players (and especially football agents) have long envied their more empowered counterparts in the NBA and MLB. Under this scenario, Watson would invoke his no-trade clause to hand-pick potential destinations, then broker what could become a massive trade involving multiple first-round draft choices.

The third option would have Watson and the Texans engaging in a staring contest. If Watson blinked first, he would report to the team and resume his role as starting quarterback, probably in time for the start of the season, to avoid missing game checks. This has generally been the way of the NFL world for decades, but that could be changing. If the team blinked first, Watson might pull a Carson Palmer by threatening to retire, missing regular-season games and making it clear he would not report to the team no matter what. Under this scenario, the regular season might begin without Watson, with the Texans deciding after a while they would be better off getting whatever value they can command, which might be less at that time of the year. Palmer went that route with the Cincinnati Bengals a decade ago. The Oakland Raiders acquired him for a first-round pick in the draft and a second-rounder in the draft after that (the second-rounder could have upgraded to a first-round choice if the Raiders had reached the AFC title game).

2. Tom Brady’s Buccaneers versus Aaron Rodgers’ Packers is must-see TV in the championship round. One big contrast between the quarterbacks could become the storyline if the Bucs pull an upset.

Brady wanted the Buccaneers to sign former New England Patriots teammate Rob Gronkowski even though coach Bruce Arians didn’t really feature tight ends. The Bucs promptly lured Gronkowski out of retirement and gave him a $9 million salary. Brady wanted the Bucs to sign controversial wide receiver Antonio Brown, who had been all but blacklisted from the league, even though Arians had said previously the team did not intend to sign Brown. Sure enough, the Bucs signed Brown and began featuring him in their offense. Brown leads the team in receptions over the past eight games, counting the playoffs. Gronkowski has played in all 18 games and ranks third on the team in receiving yards.

You might have noticed the Packers taking a slightly different approach to fulfilling their quarterback’s requests for personnel upgrades. Rodgers made it clear before the draft that he hoped the team would select receiving help. The Packers then traded up to draft his potential successor in the first round, making no meaningful offseason investment in pass catchers. Rodgers famously quipped that he had graduated from scotch to tequila while fielding post-draft calls and texts from friends concerned about his state of mind.

In a credit to the Packers’ decision-makers, their existing receivers overcame a rough start to outperform expectations, one of the big keys to Rodgers putting up MVP-caliber stats once again.

But, after the Bucs trampled the Packers 38-10 in Week 6, a case could have been made that Green Bay lacked sufficient weaponry to win matchups quickly enough after the snap for Rodgers to beat immediate pressure. That may or may not have been the case. It’s a subjective evaluation. If the Packers’ offense picks up where it left off against the Los Angeles Rams on Saturday, Rodgers’ offseason plea for additional weaponry will remain a footnote to this season. If this game against Tampa Bay resembles the last one, the following reference material could apply.

The Packers traded up to select Love at No. 26. Teams selected five wide receivers over the next 32 picks. Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, Laviska Shenault Jr., K.J. Hamler and Chase Claypool averaged 51 receptions for 653 yards and five touchdowns as rookies. They averaged nine regular-season starts. Pittman had five catches for 90 yards for the Indianapolis Colts in the playoffs. Claypool’s postseason production included five catches for 59 yards and two touchdowns for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Davante Adams led the Packers with 115 receptions for 1,374 yards and 18 touchdowns. No other wide receiver on the roster had more than 33 catches.

Higgins, Pittman and Claypool are 6-foot-4 and between 215-238 pounds. Though Claypool was the last of those five selected, a veteran offensive coach said the former Notre Dame wide receiver would be the one from this group most able to improve the Packers’ Super Bowl chances right now.

Next five WRs drafted after Jordan Love

RD-PICK	WR	REC	YDS	TD
2-33	Tee Higgins	67	908	6
2-34	Michael Pittman	40	503	1
2-42	Laviska Shenault Jr.	58	600	5
2-46	K.J. Hamler	30	381	3
2-49	Chase Claypool	62	873	9

3. It’s Buccaneers-Packers and Bills-Chiefs in the championship games. A few early thoughts.

Buccaneers-Packers: The warm-weather Bucs are heading to Lambeau. Brady, Gronkowski and Brown should be fine. All three have played and won postseason games in the cold. The rest of Brady’s supporting cast on offense will be in focus as Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and company make their postseason debuts in conditions forecast to include temperatures in the 20s and the potential for snow.

“Tom has to make sure his skill does not go up there and shut it down,” an opposing coach said.

Another coach thought the Buccaneers’ defense was able to cheat its coverages against the Saints in ways that will not be plausible against Green Bay.

“Tampa was less afraid because New Orleans does not have that real speed guy, and then Jared Cook always seems to make a turnover or miss a ball,” the coach said. “They’ll have more to worry about against Green Bay with Davante playing so well, and the tight end is playing a lot better. Tampa could pack the box against New Orleans because they were not afraid. They were able to limit (Alvin) Kamara. And then Drew (Brees) can’t throw it.”

Bills-Chiefs: The two most recent MVPs, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, did not finish their playoff games this weekend after entering the concussion protocol. Players who have concussions one week usually are not cleared in time to play the next week. However, Chiefs coach Andy Reid sounded optimistic about Mahomes’ condition, suggesting there might not be symptoms. Replays did not appear to show Mahomes taking a direct blow to the head. It could be possible medical personnel diagnosed a concussion out of caution, and that Mahomes actually did not have one. If that is the case, his chances for playing against the Bills seem excellent. But as doctors warn, if you’ve seen one concussion, you’ve seen one concussion. Symptoms can be unpredictable.

If Mahomes plays, this game could become a shootout with both offenses enjoying advantages over less-than-stellar defenses. The Bills have covered the point spread 65 percent of the time and 73 percent of their games have gone over the projected point total. Both of those figures rank third in the league, counting playoffs. Forecasts call for temperatures in the 40s, wind around 10 mph and rain, which could affect that outlook.

“Buffalo won’t match up as well with Kansas City as they did with Baltimore,” an exec said. “Who is going to cover Tyreek Hill? Their safeties are good, but they are not speed guys. If Josh Norman is playing, he is not going to cover any of those guys. They will play zone and Mahomes will find holes in that zone.”

The Bills played zone 74 percent of the time against Baltimore, their fourth-highest rate of the season, according to TruMedia and Pro Football Focus. They played 76 percent zone against the Chiefs during a 26-15 defeat in Week 6. In that game, the Bills allowed about 2.5 times as much EPA per play in man coverage compared to zone, with the Chiefs doing the most damage against man coverage on passes to running backs Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams, plus a scramble by Mahomes.

4. Bills cornerback Taron Johnson’s interception return for a touchdown was huge. Here’s how huge.

Johnson’s pick-six interception off Jackson late in the third quarter was so big, it produced the sixth-largest EPA swing on a single postseason play since at least 2000, according to TruMedia. Here’s how that play produced a 10.7-point swing, tied for the Bills’ second-largest positive swing on any play since 2000:

The Ravens faced third-and-goal from the Buffalo 9-yard line with 58 seconds left in the third quarter. That situation is worth about 4 EPA to the offense, which represents the likelihood of all the potential outcomes. In that situation historically, there’s roughly a 20 percent chance the offense will throw a touchdown pass, a 10 percent chance the offense will incur a sack, a 5 percent chance the offense will suffer a turnover, etc. Barring a turnover or especially bad sack, the offense will be in prime position to attempt a high-percentage field goal, at least.

Bottom line: The Ravens were expecting to get about four points from that situation on average. A field goal would have cut a 10-3 deficit to 10-6 while a touchdown likely would have tied the score. Those are not disastrous outcomes from the Ravens’ standpoint. What the Ravens got, instead, was the worst possible outcome, a pick-six and a Bills PAT, converting that 4 EPA into a touchdown and PAT for the Bills. That’s how 10.7 EPA change hands in a single play.

For the Bills, only two plays since 2000 are in the same realm. Safety Da’Norris Searcy’s 74-yard fumble return for a touchdown against New England in the 2013 opener produced an 11.4-point swing. And then safety Donte Whitner’s 76-yard interception for a touchdown off Tampa Bay’s Byron Leftwich in a 2009 Week 2 victory matched Johnson’s big play from Saturday night (Whitner’s return was shorter, but it occurred on first down, increasing the value).

The five postseason EPA swings larger than Johnson’s big return since 2000 included:

• No. 1 (12.5 EPA): Steelers linebacker James Harrison’s interception and 100-yard touchdown return off the Arizona Cardinals’ Kurt Warner in Super Bowl XLIII shortly before halftime stands as one of the most consequential plays in postseason history.
• No. 2 (11.1 EPA): Seattle Seahawks safety Kam Chancellor’s 90-yard interception return for a touchdown off the Carolina Panthers’ Cam Newton broke open their divisional-round game following the 2014 season.
• No. 3 (10.9 EPA): Denver Broncos cornerback Champ Bailey’s 100-yard interception return off Brady to the New England 1-yard line produced a 10.9-point swing during a 27-13 victory over the Patriots in a divisional-round game following the 2005 season.
• No. 4 (10.8 EPA): Buccaneers cornerback Ronde Barber’s 92-yard interception return for a touchdown off the Philadelphia Eagles’ Donovan McNabb in the NFC Championship Game following the 2002 season helped the Bucs to a 27-10 victory.
• No. 4 (10.8 EPA): Raiders cornerback Tory James’ 90-yard interception return for a touchdown off the Dolphins’ Jay Fiedler sparked a 27-0 victory in a divisional-round game following the 2000 season.

5. Andy Reid’s fourth-and-1 play call for the clinching first down showed a business-as-usual approach even with backup Chad Henne filling in for Mahomes. Here’s what that says about the Chiefs.

The Chiefs closed out the Cleveland Browns with a staple play in which the No. 3 receiver (third from the sideline) slipped behind the No. 2 receiver into the clear for an easy completion. That they executed such a play with so much on the line and Mahomes unavailable to them sent a message.

“It instills confidence in the rest of the team to say what’s on the play sheet is what we are calling,” a defensive coach said. “Henne played the entire game in Week 17, he knows what they are doing, they are not going to call the timeout, they will run the pick play, slide the No. 3 to the flat and Henne will throw it accurately. ‘We believe in our system, it is superior and whoever is in there runs the plays.’ Before that, they were protecting Henne with their play calls, but when it mattered, they ran their offense.”

A review of all the Chiefs’ third-and-1 and fourth-and-1 completions for first downs over the past two seasons showed Kansas City running the same play against Miami (see visual above), Tennessee and Denver. In another game, the Chiefs ran a similar play in which the No. 2 receiver was targeted instead of the No. 3. The play the Chiefs ran Sunday was a play the Browns had seen on video, in other words, and the Chiefs still felt comfortable running it with their backup quarterback in a high-stakes situation. Hill juked cornerback M.J. Stewart off the line and was wide open.

6. Cook Index

The Cook Index measures how frequently teams pass on early downs in the first 28 minutes of games, before time remaining and score differential influence play calling. Teams that lean toward the pass are letting their quarterbacks cook.

The Bills passed 16 times in their first 17 plays on early downs in the first 28 minutes against Baltimore, good for a 94.1 percentage that ranks fourth out of 11,180 games played across the league since 2000, according to TruMedia. The Bills hold the top spot on that long list after passing 24 of 25 times in those situations during a 44-34 victory over the Seahawks. Buffalo’s pass-happy approach in its 17-3 victory over the Ravens did not seem well-suited for windy conditions as both teams struggled to deliver accurate passes downfield.

The table below ranks divisional-round teams by how frequently they passed on the Cook Index. Passing frequently does not necessarily ensure production, as the Bills demonstrated. Three teams in the divisional round produced positive EPA on early downs in the first 28 minutes. The Chiefs (+9.9), Packers (+5.2) and Rams (+2.5) took varied approaches to their early run-pass ratios.

During the regular season, the Chiefs ranked first (66 percent) and the Bills were second (65 percent) on the Cook Index, setting up a potentially pass-happy matchup at Arrowhead Stadium. The Buccaneers were fifth (58 percent) and the Packers 17th (53 percent) on the Cook Index. Green Bay led the league in offensive EPA.

Cook Index: Divisional-Round Games

RANK	OFFENSE	PASS-RUN	COOK INDEX
1	Buffalo Bills	16-1	94.1%
2	Cleveland Browns	12-5	70.6%
3	Kansas City Chiefs	16-10	61.5%
4	New Orleans Saints	14-11	56.0%
5	Green Bay Packers	13-15	46.4%
6	Baltimore Ravens	9-12	42.9%
7	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8-11	42.1%
8	Los Angeles Rams	5-9	35.7%