The Keys to Every NFL Wild-Card Game
Posted: 2021-01-09

We made it. The NFL playoffs are here. This is the first wild-card weekend under the league’s expanded postseason format, meaning 14 teams made the playoffs this season (up from 12) and just two got first-round byes (Kansas City and Green Bay). The result is back-to-back tripleheader days of playoff football on Saturday and Sunday, which the NFL insists on calling “Super Wild-Card Weekend.” The name needs work, but the slate looks fun.

There are six games this weekend, but the most important matchup is between old quarterbacks and Father Time. Six quarterbacks in these playoffs are 36 or older—Tom Brady (43), Drew Brees (41), Philip Rivers (39), Ben Roethlisberger (38), Aaron Rodgers (37), and Alex Smith (36). Aside from Brady and Rodgers, all of them could be in their final postseason run. Or maybe “light jog” is more apt.

Let’s get to the games, which we will not be referring to as “Super Wild-Card Weekend,” no matter how many times the TV networks try to force that name upon us.

Baltimore Ravens (11-5) @ Tennessee Titans (11-5)

Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
Channel: ABC/ESPN
Opening point spread: Ravens -4
Over/under: 54.5

A year ago, the 14-2 Ravens entered the playoffs as Super Bowl favorites. But in their divisional-round game against the Titans, they turned the ball over on their first two drives and lost. Now, though, the Ravens are playing their best football in a long time, and they have a chance at revenge this week.

These are the two best rushing teams in the NFL. The Ravens rank first and Tennessee ranks second in total rushing yards and in rushing yards per attempt. Derrick Henry just pulled off the eighth 2,000-yard rushing season in NFL history. The Titans have an elite offense and were one of just five teams to score more than 30 points per game this season. But they also have a terrible defense. They allowed 27.4 points per game this year, the most of any team that made the playoffs. Tennessee is basically a Big 12 team (or should I say an SEC team) that hopes to run up the score faster than its opponent. The Ravens, meanwhile, are on a five-game win streak. They're averaging more than 37 points per game since Week 13, and while they've been playing bad defenses, Tennessee's isn't much better.

The key to this game will be what happens on third down. The Ravens offense converted the most third downs in the league this season (101) while Tennessee’s defense allowed an astonishing 52 percent conversion rate on third down, which is the highest in a full season since the stat was first tracked in 1991.

Perhaps the primary reason Tennessee can’t get stops is because they can’t get to the quarterback. Tennessee ranks 30th in sacks (19) and 31st in pressure rate (17 percent) this season. The Titans are just the third team with fewer than 20 sacks to ever make the playoffs, and the other two played in 1982—the year sacks became an official statistic. The Titans have one of the worst pass rushes of any playoff team in the past four decades. Now they have to limit Lamar Jackson.

Both of these offenses are great. But the game will probably be decided by which one of those offenses can stay on the field. That’s Baltimore.

Chicago Bears (8-8) @ New Orleans Saints (12-4)

Time: 4:40 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS (and streaming on Nickelodeon, lol)
Opening point spread: Saints -9.5
Over/under: 48

The Bears are playing for their jobs. Head coach Matt Nagy could very well be fired if his team doesn’t win this game, and Mitchell Trubisky may need a memorable performance to earn a contract extension this offseason. The only reason Chicago even made the playoffs is because Trubisky dunked on some of the league’s worst pass defenses down the stretch. But Chicago’s run of luck is likely coming to an end this week.

The Saints were the overall no. 1 team in Football Outsiders’ DVOA this season. The Bears ranked 15th. Chicago’s offense was the 25th best by DVOA this season, while New Orleans’s defense ranked second. The Bears did manage to take the Saints to overtime in Week 8, but that was with Nick Foles at quarterback, and the Saints won 26-23.

New Orleans may be getting some important players back for this game. Receivers Michael Thomas (ankle) and Deonte Harris (stinger), plus safety Marcus Williams (ankle) all returned to practice this week and may play. Running back Alvin Kamara is on the COVID-19 list, though he has a chance to play on Sunday if he is asymptomatic and gets medical clearance, including passing a cardiac test. Guard Nick Easton could miss this weekend’s game with a concussion, but the Saints still have one of the league’s best offensive lines, even with rookie Cesar Ruiz filling in for Easton. Plus, Chicago’s defense isn’t healthy either. Bears linebacker and leading tackler Roquan Smith could miss this game with an elbow injury.

The Saints offense has been fantastic since Drew Brees returned from injured reserve. New Orleans nearly beat the Chiefs in Week 15, erupted for 52 points (and six Kamara touchdowns) against the Vikings in Week 16, then manhandled the Panthers 33-7 last week. New Orleans has the edge on Chicago in nearly every facet of this contest, and that will likely show on Sunday.

Cleveland Browns (11-5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Channel: NBC
Opening point spread: Steelers -3.5
Over/under: 47

The Browns beat the Steelers last week to secure their first playoff berth in 18 years, but the feel-good story is already being overshadowed by COVID-19. The Browns will be without head coach Kevin Stefanski plus multiple other assistants for this game because of positive COVID-19 tests and contact tracing. Stefanski is the team’s main play-caller, but by NFL rules he is not allowed to communicate with the team during the game (the rules are dumb). So special teams coach Mike Priefer will act as head coach, and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt will be calling plays for the first time this season.

That’s just the coaching staff. Pro Bowl guard Joel Bitonio, Cleveland’s best offensive lineman and longest-tenured member, will also miss this game due to a positive COVID-19 test. In the secondary, starting safety Ronnie Harrison tested positive for the virus this week and will miss Sunday’s game, and Cleveland’s best cornerback, Denzel Ward, is also still on the COVID-19 list after missing Week 17. It’s the same story for cornerback Kevin Johnson, who started six games this season. For the second week in a row, the Browns may have to start cornerback Robert Jackson, who was a special teams player until Johnson was placed on the COVID-19 list.

“Hopefully [Robert Jackson] can make that jump this week,” Browns defensive coordinator Joe Woods told reporters this week. “Because I definitely think they’re going to target him.”

The Steelers are looking for a chance to get back on track. Pittsburgh walloped the Browns 38-7 when they played in Week 6, but the game was so long ago it feels almost irrelevant. The Steelers started the season 11-0 but finished 12-4, essentially making them the worst 11-0 team in NFL history. They’ve struggled to catch the ball, run, and throw downfield for most of the season. Ben Roethlisberger is getting the ball out of his hands at a historically fast rate to avoid taking hits. But Pittsburgh seemed to turn a corner in its 17-point rally against the Colts in Week 16. And now this Browns team looks ripe for the Steelers to feast.

Cleveland barely beat the Steelers last week despite Pittsburgh resting Roethlisberger and NFL sack leader T.J. Watt. A lack of practice will make the Browns’ job even harder this week. The team had virtual walk-throughs on Wednesday and Thursday instead of practice. Baker Mayfield mentioned in his press conference Thursday that he hasn’t thrown a ball this week, but said “it won’t have an impact.” But football doesn’t work that way. Practice is more important in football than any other American team sport. There’s a reason football players practice five times more than they play. Cleveland is stacking so many disadvantages entering this game that the X’s and O’s almost seem secondary. The Browns’ drought is over, but the rain may not last long.