2020 NFC BETTING PREVIEW
Posted: 2020-09-09

As we enter into a new era of pandemic football, let’s take a look at a few quick facts about the NFC: The Arizona Cardinals are facing a three-game road trip for the first time since 2011 ... New Carolina head coach Matt Rhule will be the first Panthers head coach since Dom Capers in 1995 to start the season with two road games in his first three contests ... The Cowboys haul of of five prime time games this season extends their streak of consecutive seasons with five-plus prime time game to 15 ... for the ninth straight season Drew Brees and the Saints are in four prime time games... NY Giants head coach Joe Judge will become the first Giants rookie head coach to kickoff the season with a prime time games since Ray Handley in 1991 ... The Eagles will meet the Cowboys in prime time for the 17th consecutive season, the most in NFL prime time history ... this will mark the fifth time since 1990 that the Seahawks will have a bye week in Week Six ... From 1956-93 when CBS had the NFL/NFC package, Washington played on Thanksgiving five times. Since 1994, they will have played six times on FOX.

Note: Team write-ups are excerpts from the 2020 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine on sale at newsstands nationwide.

 

 

NFC EAST PREVIEW

 

DALLAS COWBOYS
TEAM THEME: DOMINATING THE OFFSEASON

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 10
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 130

New Dallas head coach Mike McCarthy went 125-77-2 in 13 seasons with Green Bay, won 6 NFC North Division titles, made playoff appearances in 9 of those 13 seasons, and won the 2011 Super Bowl. And as only Jerry Jones would have it, McCarthy is on record as saying his team is preparing for a 20-game season. That’s a pretty tall order for a team that has won more than 13 games only one time in its franchise history. However, there is no refuting the talent the Cowboys will have on display this season. Pro Bowl RB Ezekiel Elliot and a cast of wide receivers join QB Dak Prescott as good as any in the league. Not only did the Cowboys rip the doorknob off the 2020 NFL draft, per Pro Football Focus, they finished #1 in total offense last season while racking up 431.7 yards per game. The Baltimore Ravens finished a distant second, 23.9 yards behind Dallas. And it didn’t hurt signing former No. 1 picks DT’s Gerald McCoy, Dontari Poe, and S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix to boost the defense. Remember, though Dallas was only 8-8 last season, they outscored foes by 113 points. While 20 wins might be a pipedream, a deep run in the playoffs certainly is not.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Cowboys were 0-5 in ‘one-possession’ games last season, but are 6-0 SUATS in its last six games versus AFC North opponents.  

 

NEW YORK GIANTS
TEAM THEME: THE CLAPPER IS BACK

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 6.5
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 138

Clap your hands if you enjoyed the hire of new Giants’ head coach Joe Judge. Now do the same if you feel bringing former Dallas Cowboys head coach Jason Garret in as offensive coordinator was a smart move. With it, Garrett brings the Cowboys’ playbook to the Big Apple and it figures to benefit QB Daniel Jones the most (18 fumbles and 38 sacks in 13 starts last year), as the G-Men will be running the Dallas offense now. Thus, Jones is understandably excited about working with his new rookie OC and bodyguards, starting with first-round draft pick, offensive tackle Andrew Thomas. Look for the games between these two division rivals to be more of a chess match than track meets this season. Garrett also knows this division like the back of his hand. Judge was a former assistant under Nick Saban and most recently an 8-year assistant under Bill Belichick with New England, so he also knows the importance of team play. “I don’t want 53 independent contractors. I want one team,” insists Judge. Smart. Tough. Fundamentally sound. They are all traits Judge will demand. That’s what one comes to expect from a coach whose teams have won three Super Bowls and two BCS National Championships.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Giants were tied with the Chargers as the worst team in net turnovers in the league last season (-1.1 per game).

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: vs. Arizona (12/13)

 

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
TEAM THEME: OFF TO THE RACES

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 9.5
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 134.5

Philadelphia quarterback Carson Wentz knows he is the Eagles’ main man. Like Aaron Rodgers, he signed a four-year $128 million extension last June. And like Rodgers, he was likely taken aback when Philly selected Oklahoma QB Jalen Hurts in the second round of this year’s draft. Unlike Rodgers, though, Wentz is entering the prime of his career. The problem is teams don’t draft a quarterback in the second round with the expectation for him not to play. Our best guess is Hurts will play a “Taysom Hill-like role” with the Eagles as long as Wentz stays healthy and delivers the goods. Wentz’s numbers last season were solid but the fact of the matter is he is only 14-14 in his starts the past two seasons. Hurts’ 191.2 Passing Efficiency Rating last season was the 7th best all-time in College Football history. He was also 39-4 as a starter at Alabama and Oklahoma. Meanwhile, USA TODAY reported the Eagles, who ranked 31st in receiving yards per game last season, assembled a virtual 400-yard relay team when they drafted Jalen Reagor and two other speedsters in the draft, while also trading for Marquise Goodwin, labeled by GM Howie Roseman as one of the fastest men in the world. The table has been set.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
It’s been 15 consecutive years since the reigning NFC East division champion (Eagles this season) has repeated.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY AGAINST: at Green Bay (12/6)

 

WASHINGTON REDSKINS
TEAM THEME: WHIFFLE BALL

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 5.5
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 134.5

In nine seasons with the Panthers, Carolina won 3 division titles under Ron Rivera while going 76-63-1 in that span. His hire was one of the best moves Washington owner Daniel Snyder has made after numerous whiffs. Best of all, there are a lot of reasons to look for improvement this season, starting with the offensive and defensive lines being vastly improved. In addition, word is QB Dwayne Haskins shed 10 pounds of plenty of body fat in the offseason. That’s a good start for a quarterback who struggled mightily in his rookie season last year. With it, the Redskins along with Detroit and the LA Chargers were egged in division play last season, going 0-6. And right on cue, compliments of the well-oiled machine, it’s worth noting NFL teams that went 0-6 in division games the previous season are a trustworthy 100-69-3 ATS in division games the following season since 1999. The addition of DE Chase Young (30.5 sacks in 34 games) with the second pick in this year’s draft instantly makes the front seven a top-flight unit, especially under new defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio’s schemes. Should former Stanford star Bruce Love rise up to replace Adrian Peterson, the offense may even chip in too.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Washington has played in seven Thanksgiving Day games since 1990. Six of them have been against Dallas.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Baltimore (10/4)

 

2020 NFC NORTH PREVIEW

 

CHICAGO BEARS
TEAM THEME: NOT-SO-SWEET ODOR

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 8
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 126.5

Safe to say, lost in the anguish of last season’s disappointment was a solid effort from a Bears defense that allowed the fourth fewest points in the league. With it, no defense has allowed fewer points in the past two seasons. In fact, only Baltimore has surrendered fewer yards per game over the two-year tenure of Matt Nagy. The white elephant in the room, though, is Chicago’s offense more specifically, it’s starting quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, who has averaged 208.6 passing yards per game in his 41 NFL starts, with a wobbly QB Rating of 85. That storyline will continue more so this season with Nick Foles now challenging Trubisky for playing time. With the offense badly in need of a fresh coat of paint, new OC Bill Lazor and OL coach Juan Castillo will hope to put the paint where it ain’t. However, the Bears tight ends were deplorable (36 receptions, the worst in the league) last season. Worse, the draft yielded little to nothing, while the free agent offseason signings were negligible. So as good as the defense has been, the offense needs to clean up its act. Before Chicago fans start waving rally towels, they need to know that if the rag smells like chloroform... it usually is.  

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Bears are 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS all-time versus greater than .375 AFC West opponents.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: at Green Bay (11/29)

 

DETROIT LIONS
TEAM THEME: CRANK UP THE MOTOWN

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 6.5
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 127.5

Let’s get this out of the way first: Detroit head coach Matt Patricia and GM Bob Quinn will be history should the Lions prove not to be a playoff contender in 2020. That was the directive issued by team owner Martha Ford. With it, the focus immediately swung from a franchise rebuild to an emphasis on winning now. It all starts with QB Matthew Stafford. Detroit was 0-8 without Stafford last season, 3-4-1 with him in the lineup. His 106 QB rating last season was the best in his career and if he’s healthy, they stand a chance.  Still, there is a lot to overcome, such as the questions that abound with the league’s worst pass defense, something they feel Jeff Okudah will help address. Of major concern is that the Lions allowed 400-plus yards in over half of their games last season after having done so in only 19 of their previous 91 contests. Still, if the 7 ‘one possession’ losses suffered last season reverse itself behind a healthy Stafford, then it’s game on. Hey, the auto industry has knuckled down and rebuilt itself a few times since the heyday of Motown. It’s time for the Lions to do the same and give their long-suffering fans a reason to start ‘Dancing in the Street’.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Lions are 17-2-1 ATS in games after scoring 3 or fewer points, including 10-0-1 ATS as dogs.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: vs. Washington (11/15) - *KEY

GREEN BAY PACKERS
TEAM THEME: HEIR JORDAN

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 9
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 129.5

Had you not followed the draft and learned that the Packers spent six of their first seven picks on offensive players, you would have thought that a move was on to get future HOF QB Aaron Rodgers some badly needed help. Then to learn they actually traded up in the First Round to select QB Jordan Love was a WTF moment. Magnifying the move was the fact that the Packers actually tabbed 6 offensive players with their first 7 picks none of whom may play in 2020. And to top it off, in a year featuring one of the deepest wide receiver corps in recent draft memory, Green Bay selected NONE. To which we ask: who’s minding the store in Green Bay these days? Which brings us to the age-old debate: should a team that was one game away from a Super Bowl, draft for the present in hopes of getting over the hump? The answer was a resounding no. Not after they won the NFC North by three games when Matt LaFleur became the first Packers head coach to win the division, make the playoffs and win 10 games in a rookie season. Instead, Packers GM Brian Gutekunst and LaFleur felt that this draft would be best spent investing in the future. Good luck with that this year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Packers were 7-1 in ‘one-possession games’ last season.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: at San Francisco (11/5) - *KEY

MINNESOTA VIKINGS
TEAM THEME: PURPLE PEOPLE EATERS

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 9
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 128.5

It was truly an offseason for the ages in Purple People Eater-land this year. It started when Minnesota traded WR Stephon Diggs to Buffalo for four draft picks, and continued in the draft when the Vikings made an all out assault on draft day by wheeling-and-dealing their way up to 15 selections, leaving with a pair of first-rounders in the haul including Diggs’ successor in LSU, WR Justin Jefferson. Through it all, though, Minnesota still has their leading receiver from 2016-18 in Adam Thielen who suffered through a hamstring injury in a 10-regular season campaign last year. Best of all, RB Dalvin Cook enters off a career year with a contract that runs out this season, all but guaranteeing an injury-free best effort. And then there is much maligned QB Kirk Cousins, who suddenly for a stretch became the hottest quarterback in the NFL last season. The question is can he perform at last year’s 3,600-yard, 69.1 completion and 26/6 TD/INT ratio level with Diggs and OC Kevin Stefanski having departed? The one constant that remains, however, is head coach Mike Zimmer’s assault on the pointspread. The ATM machine is 62-36-3 ATS overall with Minnesota. Even better yet, see our STAT YOU WILL LIKE below.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Vikings are 19-3-1 ATS in non-division games when coming off a loss under Mike Zimmer.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: vs. Chicago (12/20) - *KEY off a loss

 

2020 NFC SOUTH PREVIEW

 

ATLANTA FALCONS
TEAM THEME: 10TH AVENUE FREEZE OUT

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 7.5
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 137.5

Don’t look now but with the RB Todd Gurley signing and the TE Hayden Hurst acquisition, the Falcons’ offense now boasts 10 former 1st-round picks that are projected starters for 2020. According to Elias Sports, no team has started 10 offensive players selected in the 1st round in the Common Draft Era (since 1967). That figures to give QB Matt Ryan plenty to work with on offense, especially with WR Calvin Ridley surprisingly sitting atop the NFL Next Gen Stats as the NFL’s top-rated receiver last season. The promising news for Atlanta this year is, after a 1-7 start to the 2019 season, the Falcons won 6 games during the second-half of the campaign last year. Nevertheless, with the addition of Tom Brady to the NFC South, there won’t be many layups this year in what shapes up the be the toughest division in the NFL this season. Rest assured, the Dirty Birds will likely need more of last year’s season-ending mojo in 2020 when they face Drew Brees and the Saints in Weeks 11 and 13, and Brady and the Bucs in Weeks 15 and 17. The bottom line is with the Falcons coming off back-to-back 7-9 seasons, it’s Matty Ice time in Atlanta this season. 

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
QB Matt Ryan is 11-1 SUATS in home openers with the Falcons.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY: 
PLAY ON: vs. Seattle (9/13)

CAROLINA PANTHERS
TEAM THEME: LET’S SEE WHAT NEW CAN DO

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 5.5
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 135.5

Carolina lost its final 8 games of the season last year by an average of nearly 17 PPG. Should they do anything similar this season, it will be labeled as ‘Tanking for Trevor’ Lawrence, the next Number One pick in the 2021 NFL draft. While most pundits are betting on Jacksonville to earn the honor, new head coach Matt Rhule realizes he will have to rely heavily on his rookie class to help build the team from the ground up, something he’s done in each of his last two head coaching stays at Baylor and Temple. It took him two years to accomplish the trick with the Bears and the Owls. The ground zero starts on defense where the Panthers became the first team since the AFL-NFL merger to select all seven picks on defense this year. See our STAT YOU WILL LIKE below for reasons why. Nonetheless, Rhule will turn to new OC Joe Brady, the architect of the high-powered LSU offense last season. And speaking of new, QB Cam Newton is out and recently acquired QB Teddy Bridgewater (28-7 ATS NFL career starts) from New Orleans takes his place in the backfield alongside star RB Christian McCaffrey, who owns 303 receptions since entering the NFL three seasons ago.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Including the retirement of 7-time Pro Bowl LB Luke Kuechly, the Panthers lost 40 sacks from last year’s squad.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: at Green Bay (12/20)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
TEAM THEME: SAINTITUDE

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 10.5
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 132.5

There's always going to be a chance that 41-year-old Drew Brees will drop off in a way similar to how Tom Brady did in 2019, but the Saints are eagerly going to take another shot at a Super Bowl with him behind center. Knowing offseason addition WR Emmanuel Sanders is one of only 7 NFL players to appear in a Super Bowl game with three different teams, they’ll gladly play that card. He’ll look to become the first to do so with four teams this season. In addition, they also signed safety Malcolm Jenkins, previously with the Saints from 2009-13, to reclaim his old leadership role in what seems like an icing on the cake sort of move. It won’t be a cakewalk, though. Not with Tom Brady joining the NFC South fray. In fact, when the future Hall of Famers lock horns at the Superdome to kick off the 2020 season on Thursday, September 13, the season opener will feature 1,088 career TD passes between the two HOF gunslingers. Meanwhile, Jameis Winston and his 5,109 passing yards last year, will back up Brees knowing that he becomes the first QB since the merger in 1970 to change teams after leading the league in passing yards the previous season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: 
Saints WR Michael Thomas (321) and Panthers RB Chris McCaffrey (303) are the only two players in NFL history with at least 300 receptions in their first three seasons.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY AGAINST: at Philadelphia (12/13)

 

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
TEAM THEME: LORD OF THE RINGS

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 9.5
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 129.5

As you might expect, this will be very interesting. With Tom Brady now at the helm for Bruce Arians’ Bucs, each brings a different juxtapose in their style of play to the field. Brady has leaned heavily on his running backs since turning 40 in 2017. Over that span, he has completed an NFL-high 364 passes to RBs. Will he be able to do the same in Tampa where Buccaneers RBs have only caught 3 TD passes over that same span, tied for the fewest in the NFL? We do know in terms of average passing yards per attempt, going back to when Arians took over as Steelers offensive coordinator in 2007, in each of his past 11 seasons his teams have ranked in the Top Ten passing attacks. And with six losses last season by touchdown or less, you know the Bucs are anxious to get Brady on the field. The acquisition of Brady’s favorite target, TE Rob Gronkowski, was huge. And his new bodyguard, first round OT Tristan Wirfs, has drawn comparisons to Lane Johnson. However, ESPN reported that the Bucs will play six games with fewer days rest than their opponent this season, the most such games in the NFL. Not good news for a soon-to-be 43-year-old quarterback.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Tom Brady is 39-13 SU and 37-11-4 ATS against foes with a better record, and 10-1 SUATS in games when his team owns a losing record.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY: 
PLAY ON: at NY Giants (11/2)

 

2020 NFC WEST PREVIEW

ARIZONA CARDINALS 
TEAM THEME: RESERVOIR DOGS

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 7.5
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 130.5

After a slow start, QB Kyler Murray, the NFL top choice in the 2019 NFL draft, earned his stripes last season when he captured the Offensive Rookie of the Year award while improving Arizona’s offense 9 points and nearly 100 yards per game. The Cardinals did not stop there, though, acquiring 4-time Pro Bowl WR DeAndre Hopkins from Houston during the offseason in what was labeled as the NFL heist of the year. In becoming Murray’s go-to target, Hopkins enters having averaged 10.5 targets per game the past five seasons. In addition, despite not having a Round 2 selection which they traded to Houston in the aforementioned Texans theft   Arizona nailed the NFL draft this spring when they landed Clemson LB Isaiah Simmons in the first round and Houston Cougars OT Josh Jones, a high-end first-round prospect, in a Round 3 steal. If San Francisco and the L.A. Rams take a step back in 2020, the Cardinals could ascend by default. And remember, as called out by NFL guru Mike Mains in the 2020 NFL Preview on these pages, Zona head coach Kliff Kingsbury (he of the cool pad in Paradise Valley) is 15-7-1 ATS as a dog of more than 7 points in his college and NFL coaching career.     

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Cardinals are 13-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SUATS losses, including 12-0-1 ATS versus sub .700 foes.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY
PLAY ON: at San Francisco (9/13)

LOS ANGELES RAMS
TEAM THEME: GONE BUT NOT FORGOTTEN

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 8.5
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 134

In a wild ride hard to believe, RB Todd Gurley went from NFL Offensive Player of the Year in 2017 to $57 million-dollar man in 2018 to afterthought in 2019 to gone in 2020. Toss in WR Brandin Cooks being dispatched to Houston and suddenly the cap-strapped Rams can finally breathe, leaving behind $42 million in dead cap money. While continuing to wield the machete, Los Angeles also released four defensive starters. Not stopping there, head coach Sean McVay continued the overhaul bringing in three new coaches OC Kevin O’Connell, DC Brandon Staley and special teams coordinator John Bonamego. Staley, a Vic Fangio disciple, still has legitimate franchise players DT Aaron Donald and CB Jalen Ramsey in place, though. The schedule maker did the Rams no favors, either, as they are scheduled to travel the second-most miles in the NFL this season (26,104), although McVay has said that the team plans to stay out east between consecutive games with the Eagles and Bills. While the loss of former DC Wade Phillips could take a toll, it’s important to remember the Rams are one season removed from the Super Bowl. They’ve also outgained 35 of 52 opponents behind McVay, including 13 of their 16 opponents last season. Be careful here.     

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Rams have not had a first round pick in the NFL draft since 2016 (Jared Goff).

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: at San Francisco (10/18)

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
TEAM THEME: DUST IN THE WIND

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 10.5
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 132

After a fully healthy first full season as an NFL starter last year, the Niners are now connected at the hip with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. That was evident when they decided not to pursue Tom Brady or tap a QB in this year’s draft. Perhaps because it’s been noted that quarterbacks tend to make strides in their second full season in Kyle Shanahan’s offenses see Matt Schaub and Matt Ryan. So, after a run to the Super Bowl last season, it’s on to 2020 where the Niners will need to be at their absolute best in order to overcome the odious ‘Super Bowl loser’ jinx. Matt Youmans of VSiN points out that the average Super Bowl loser drops 3.3 wins the next season. And don’t forget, it was just a year ago the 49ers finished the 2018 season with a 4-12 record. It doesn’t help, either, losing rushing stopgaps in DeForrest Buckner and Sheldon Day on defense. Remember, unless the gold mine that you panned and struck gold with has a never ending supply of precious metal, you’re not as likely to make the same major score a second consecutive time. Traveling the third-most miles in the NFL, the gold miners are atop our fade list in 2020.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
22 of the 54 Super Bowl wins have come by four teams: the Patriots, Steelers, 49ers and Cowboys.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY AGAINST: at NY Giants (9/27)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
TEAM THEME: LEGION OF ASSUME

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 9
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 131

Seattle’s 12 victories last season marked the seventh time in the last eight years in which Pete Carroll’s troops have cracked the double-digit win margin. However, before getting first in line to bet them ‘over’ their 9-win total this 2020 season, there are a few red flags you need to be aware of. For openers, the Seahawks’ collective margin of victory in 2019 was 5.6 points, and in the end they outscored their opponents by only 7 total overall points on the season. Furthermore, 11 of their 12 wins came by 8 or fewer points. To top it off, Seattle allowed 400-plus yards in half of their regular season games last year. Astonishingly, they had won 8 of their 9 road games before their magic carpet ride ended with a playoff loss at Green Bay. In the end, a lot of their unexpected success was likely due to the fact that they finished the season +12 in net turnovers. Toss in the fact that Carroll’s crew is scheduled to travel the most miles in the NFL this season (29,203) and suddenly you might want to hold off on that season win ticket for the moment. Only the fact that future Hall of Fame QB Russell Wilson remains under center keeps them in the conversation.         

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Per Sharp Football Analysis: QB Russell Wilson has never received an MVP vote in his career.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY AGAINST: at Philadelphia (11/30)