The Athletic 76: Preseason rankings of every FBS team playing a fall season
Posted: 2020-09-03

The strangest season in modern college football history is here, and with it comes a unique set of rankings.

Normally, this is The Athletic 130. But with four conferences and some independent teams pushing football to the spring, the rankings are down to The Athletic 76 for fall 2020.

The schedule will also impact these rankings. Normally, rankings rely heavily on results, leading to a lot of movement in the early weeks. But some conferences don t start until mid- or late-September. How should a 3-0 Group of 5 team be compared to a 0-0 Alabama? There are also likely to be games impacted by COVID-19. How should a game without several starters or a forfeit be taken into account? We ll have to see how it plays out.

This is subjective. Advanced statistical ranking systems are plentiful, and though they may be part of the research, they are not the only factor. This isn t the Playoff committee, either. This is about fun banter, so let s keep it friendly.

So what should we expect in 2020? The same group of teams in the College Football Playoff? Major upsets due to less practice time and no spring ball? Based on everything else we ve seen in 2020, we can expect the unexpected.

1-10

RANK TEAM 2019 RECORD
1
14-1
2
11-2
3
12-2
4
12-2
5
11-2
6
11-2
7
9-4
8
15-0
9
8-5
10
8-5

The top 10 keeps many of the usual suspects. There s no reason to think Clemson, Alabama and Georgia won t be in contention for the CFP again. Oklahoma must find a new quarterback and running back Kennedy Brooks has opted out, but Lincoln Riley gets the benefit of the doubt. Florida and Notre Dame have either been in the CFP or right on the edge in recent years, and that should be the case again.

Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon are top-10 contenders no longer playing this fall. As a result, teams like Oklahoma State and Texas A&M move up. LSU has lost so much from last year s record-breaking season, and we really have no idea what to expect. The latest news is elite wide receiver Ja Marr Chase opting out. Auburn, meanwhile, does have Bo Nix and his receivers back, plus Chad Morris running the offense. Auburn could be Alabama s best competition in the SEC West.

11-25

RANK TEAM 2019 RECORD
11
8-5
12
10-3
13
11-3
14
12-2
15
8-5
16
7-6
17
6-7
18
7-6
19
13-1
20
8-5
21
8-5
22
10-3
23
11-3
24
6-7
25
8-5

The loss of the Big Ten and Pac-12 boosts the Group of 5 more than anyone in the top 25. UCF, Cincinnati and Memphis all look close in the race for the AAC title. An undefeated season by any of them could put the CFP in play, as they become top-15 teams to start. Appalachian State, SMU and Louisiana Lafayette also should contend for double-digit win seasons again and could play spoiler for the G5 spot in the New Year s Six.

Texas would be in the middle-teens if not for conferences opting out. Sam Ehlinger provides a steady presence, but time will tell if Tom Herman s coordinator changes pay off. Tennessee appears to have turned the corner under Jeremy Pruitt, but it still looks a step behind in the SEC East race. Miami s debut season under head coach Manny Diaz didn t go well, but adding quarterback D Eriq King and offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee could mean big things in aiding that defense. North Carolina should be improved from last year s 7-6 record, with big things expected from QB Sam Howell, but after playing nine one-score games last season, there could be more drama in store in 2020.

Florida State and Pitt are teams that normally would be somewhere in the upper-30s of these rankings, but there are going to be top-25 teams all season that don t feel like top-25 teams. This is what we have to work with. Still, it ll be interesting to see how Mike Norvell moves playmakers around the field at FSU like he did at Memphis.

26-50

RANK TEAM 2019 RECORD
26
9-5
27
8-5
28
5-7
29
9-5
30
7-6
31
11-3
32
8-5
33
4-8
34
4-8
35
6-7
36
4-8
37
8-5
38
4-8
39
11-2
40
7-6
41
8-5
42
11-3
43
9-4
44
8-5
45
6-6
46
5-7
47
7-6
48
10-3
49
5-7
50
5-7

The jumbled middle of the ACC continues in the rest of the 20s. TCU had a chance to be improved this season, but Max Duggan being out after discovering a heart condition makes it hard to read the Horned Frogs. Power 5 teams like Ole Miss, Texas Tech and South Carolina move up quite a bit in the rankings without four conferences playing, but schedules made almost completely of conference games mean there isn t an opportunity to pick up some easy wins and develop early in the season. Missouri, for example, added Alabama and LSU as extra conference games. Not the ideal starting schedule for a new head coach. BYU s remade schedule, on the other hand, could reasonably lead to an 8-0 final record

UAB enters as the Conference USA favorite, but FAU and Western Kentucky should also be in the mix. Houston should have a bounce-back season in year two under Dana Holgorsen, and Navy has one major question at quarterback.

51-76

RANK TEAM 2019 RECORD
51
4-8
52
7-6
53
6-7
54
3-9
55
3-9
56
3-9
57
5-7
58
8-5
59
7-6
60
5-7
61
7-6
62
2-10
63
4-8
64
8-5
65
4-8
66
3-9
67
4-8
68
6-7
69
4-8
70
4-8
71
2-10
72
5-7
73
5-7
74
3-9
75
4-8
76
1-11

Can Kansas or Georgia Tech make jumps in the second year with their new coaches? Or will they be at the bottom of the Power 5 again? Arkansas has lost 16 consecutive SEC games and is seven away from the divisional-era record.

Army s rebuilt independent slate includes three FCS teams and eight home games overall, meaning it could have another record that skewed by the schedule. The bottom of this list is where a number of MAC and Mountain West teams would be. Teams like Charlotte, East Carolina and Rice could still take notable steps forward this season, even though they re near the bottom of these rankings.

The season s finally here, in some form. Let s hope we get through it.