2020 PAC-12 Conference Football Betting Preview
Posted: 2020-08-05

Operation Warp Speed
Coming off a disastrous 2018 campaign, PAC-12 needed a makeover in the 2019 season, the likes of which not even Joan Rivers’ plastic surgeon could not change the look of this plummeting Power-5 Conference. It had gotten so bad that the PAC-12 had gone 7-15 SU and 3-19 ATS in bowl games the previous three years ... with only ONE WIN by more than 3 points.
Things improved somewhat last season when the loop went 4-3 SUATS in its bowl games, but no one qualified for the CFB Playoff as the Pac-12 has made only two appearances and has now missed out each of the last three years. Talk about a league in need of a vaccine. 

Newbies
Unlike five new head coaches that entered the league in 2018, the highest number of new coaches on the sidelines in one season for the Pac-12, the loop welcomes just three newbies in 2020 – Karl Dorrell of Colorado, Jimmy Lake of Washington and Nick Rolovich of Washington State. 
The Buffaloes have been running in the wrong direction for far too long. During the past 14 years, Ralphie has produced one winning season. Competing in the PAC-12’s soft South division, Dorrell retruns to the loop after having been the boss at UCLA from 2003-2007. Safe to say, he’ll look to reverse the Buffaloes’ path this season.

Note: Team write-ups are excerpts from the 2020 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine on sale at newsstands nationwide. The numbers following each team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. The RPR represents each team’s overall, offensive and defensive rankings in overall returning production experience.

 

2019 PAC-12 CONFERENCE PREVIEW - PAC-12 NORTH 

CALIFORNIA
TEAM THEME: PALE ALE

2020 Recruit Rank: 39 • Ret Starters: Off - *10 / Def - 8 • RPR: Total: 33 (1 O / 105 D)

Yes, the Golden Bears won 8 games last season for the first time under head coach Justin Wilcox. However, red flags abound as they took several steps backwards statistically. Once again Cal struggled on offense, and has now slipped each and every year under Wilcox’s lead. The once proud defense also dovetailed. Like a hearty micro beer, the Bears had been stout on defense but light on offense. That changed last year, albeit partly due to an influx of injuries. With it, Wilcox made changes to his offensive coaching staff. Included is new offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave, who brings 20 years of coaching experience, including OC duties with five different NFL teams. Still, it works only if the defense snaps back.   

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Bears improved from No. 129 to No. 14 in the nation in Turnovers Lost last season.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Washington (10/31)

 

OREGON
TEAM THEME: PLUCKED DUCKS

2020 Recruit Rank: 12 • Ret Starters: Off - 4 / Def - 8 • RPR: Total: 89 (124 O / 18 D)

Despite heavy losses on the offense, including QB Justin Herbert and four linemen from the league’s best front wall, the Ducks opened as the favorite to win the Pac-12 with a 9.5 season-win projection. That is largely due to the recruits they’ve amassed, ranking No. 1 in the conference the past five seasons combined. Meanwhile, new OC Joe Moorhead comes in from Mississippi State to do what he does best – coordinate an offense. He’ll likely work with third-year sophomore QB Tyler Shough, who is best positioned to replace Herbert after being his understudy each of the past two seasons. In the end, the Ducks could be up against it in their quest to post double-digit wins for the 9th time since 2008.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Oregon head coach Mario Cristobal is 6-11 SUATS in his career as a dog of fewer then 6 points.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY AGAINST: at Oregon State (11/28)

 

OREGON STATE
TEAM THEME: BEAVER FEVER

2020 Recruit Rank: 53 • Ret Starters: Off - 5 / Def - 9 • RPR: Total: 84 (123 O / 12 D)

It’s safe to say that third-year head coach Jonathan Smith is making huge strides with the Beavers as they came this-close to snapping a five year losing skid in 2019. SR QB Jake Lutton sported a 28/3 TD-INT ratio last season, yet somehow the Beavers suffered a sixth consecutive losing season, no thanks to three losses suffered by 3 or fewer points. However, they might be hard-pressed to match last year’s production after losing lynchpin Lutton, their leading receiver and some top offensive linemen. On the defensive front, OSU surrendered 169.5 yards on the ground, but with nine starters back along with Auburn transfer Charles Moore, improvement looms. And if not, there is always the Civil War.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Beavers tied for the Fewest Fumbles Lost (2) last season.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: at Stanford (10/30) - * KEY as a dog

 

STANFORD
TEAM THEME: 4 SCORE AND 10 YEARS AGO

2020 Recruit Rank: 21 • Ret Starters: Off - *9 / Def - 8 • RPR: Total: 28 (45 O / 36 D)

Color the Cardinal the epitome of a “Mission Team” in 2020. The longest run of consecutive postseason appearances in the Pac-12 came to halt at 10 in a row last season. Losses to California, in which they surrendered the Stanford Axe after 10 years, and to Notre Dame in its first home loss to the Irish in 10 years, were crippling. As Shaw enters uncharted waters, Vegas has them home for the holidays this year with a 5.5 season win total. We know Shaw and we know value when we see it. Behind a coach that has averaged nearly 10 wins per season as the lead Cardinal, we’re on the “Mission Team,” like white on rice. Pass the chopsticks, please.     

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Cardinal are 15-3 ATS in games when coming off a SU favorite loss under David Shaw.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: vs. Colorado (11/14)

 

WASHINGTON
TEAM THEME: LAKE TURBULENCE

2020 Recruit Rank: 16 • Ret Starters: Off - 4 / Def - 8 • RPR: Total: 104 (127 O / 39 D)

Jimmy Lake has taken over in Seattle for Chris Petersen, who shocked everyone with his resignation after last season. One of Lake’s first jobs is finding a replacement at quarterback for Jacob Eason, who left after playing just one season, following his transfer from Georgia. "It’s going to be more easy for a younger player to come in and play right away, the way this system is laid out,” insists Lake. The problem is the Huskies will also be missing their leading rusher and two top receivers along with several offensive linemen. To top it off, UDub might have the hardest slate in the Pac-12 with Oregon, Utah, USC, Cal and Washington on the road and just four home games.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Washington allowed an FBS best 1.9 points per game in the first quarter of games last season.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: vs. Colorado (11/21)

 

WASHINGTON STATE
TEAM THEME: WORDS OF WISDOM

2020 Recruit Rank: 56 • Ret Starters: Off - 6 / Def - 9 • RPR: Total: 85 (121 O / 22 D)

The Mad Scientist has left the lab. And with it, he leaves the Cougars with words of wisdom and little else. When Mike Leach departed for Mississippi State, he left an empty cupboard for his successor, Nick Rolovich, the former head coach at Hawaii. Also gone is quarterback Anthony Gordon, who attended San Francisco City College, as did Rolovich. A former record-setting quarterback at Hawaii, Rolovich played or coached the run-and-shoot in his 12 years on the island of Oahu. On the flip side, the defense looks solid with six of the top seven tacklers back. It was Leach who once told Rolovich, “Ignore what people say and try to score the best way you can.” Rest assured, he will.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Rolovich is 4-22 SU and 3-23 ATS as a head coach in games in which his team scores fewer than 28 points.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: at UCLA (11/14)

 

2019 PAC-12 CONFERENCE PREVIEW - PAC-12 SOUTH 

 

ARIZONA
TEAM THEME: CRITICAL SUMMIT

2020 Recruit Rank: 62 • Ret Starters: Off - 7 / Def - 8 • RPR: Total: 30 (63 O / 24 D)

When Kevin Sumlin took over the Arizona program in 2018, he inherited a squad that scored 41 points and gained 489 yards per contest. Two years later those numbers are down to 27 points and 440 yards per game. Hence, there is no denying the fact that the Wildcats’ offense has suffered serious shrinkage behind Sumlin. It was evident last season when, after opening the campaign at 4-1, they finished the season on a 7-game losing skid. One-time famed QB Khalil Tate was a bust in the Sumlin era and is now gone. The hope is 6’6” QB Grant Gunnel (1,239-yard freshman season with 9 TDs and 1 INT), and a shakeup in the coaching staff, will save Sumlin’s hide.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Wildcats coach Sumlin is 0-8 ATS in his career when coming off a loss and facing an opponent coming off consecutive wins.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Colorado (10/9)

 

ARIZONA STATE
TEAM THEME: PLEADING THE FIFTH

2020 Recruit Rank: 62 • Ret Starters: Off - *4 / Def - 8 • RPR: Total: 72 (98 O / 32 D)

The Sun Devils wilted like a flower in the desert heat, losing 4 straight games after opening the season 5-1. Nonetheless, to their credit they managed to earn a repeat bowl bid under Herm Edwards. While only 4 starters are back on offense, the key returnee is electric dual-threat QB Jayden Daniels. The question mark is what can new OC Zak Hill bring from his Fresno State playbook. Hill is ASU’s fifth offensive coordinator in the past five seasons. Yes, they were the 3rd best team in the nation in Fumbles Recovered last season. But stats like that concern us as it leaves one to wonder what happens the next season when the fortuitous bounces don’t go their way.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Sun Devils are 15-2-1 ATS as conference home dogs of more than 5 points.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY
PLAY AGAINST: at Arizona (11/28)

 

COLORADO
TEAM THEME: BE THE BUFFALO

2020 Recruit Rank: 36 • Ret Starters: Off - 6 / Def - 8 • RPR: Total: 115 (120 O / 70 D)

New head coach Karl Dorrell inherits a wallowing herd of bison that’s been locked on 5-7 each of the past three seasons. Worse, they’ve enjoyed only one winning campaign over the past 14 years. To move on over to the other side, he’ll need to overcome the significant loss of standout WRs Laviska Shenault and Tony Brown, while also breaking in a new quarterback to replace talented Steven Montez. It won’t be easy behind a squad that ranks No. 115 in the nation in overall Returning Production. Dorrell was the head coach at UCLA from 2003-07, during which he led the Bruins to five bowl appearances in five years while going 34-17-1 ATS, including 8-0 ATS as a home dog.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Buffaloes are 10-2 SU during the first four games, but 5-19 SU during the last eight games of the season the last three years.
POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY AGAINST: at Colorado State (9/5)

 

UCLA
TEAM THEME: UNBEARABLE TIMES

2020 Recruit Rank: 32 • Ret Starters: Off - *7 / Def - 6 • RPR: Total: 67 (33 O / 96 D)

After a poor start, the Bruins came on strong in the second half of Chip Kelly’s second season. It wasn’t enough to turn the season around but it left hope for this year. With it, QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson tallied 2,899 total yards and 25 touchdowns running and passing last year. On the flip side, the Bruins defense – which was one of the worst in the league last year allowing nearly 35 points per game – returns well fortified, which could be good news or bad news. Nonetheless, the Bruins have the easiest slate among the South teams with five home games, while avoiding Oregon and Washington in crossover games. A soft non-conference schedule could help find them bowling by season’s end.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Kelly was 28-1 SU against sub .800 college football opponents until the last two seasons (6-10).

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: at Oregon State (11/7)

 

USC
TEAM THEME: WELL-HEALED TROJANS

2020 Recruit Rank: 55 • Ret Starters: Off - *8 / Def - 9 • RPR: Total: 5 (25 O / 7 D)

Because Five-Star blue chip QB J.T. Daniels sat out last season with a torn ACL, it opened the door for Kedon Slovis. Operating behind OC Graham Harrell’s scheme, Slovis blew the door open off its hinges, becoming the Pac-12 Freshman Offensive Player of the Year. As a result, Slovis is on the Heisman Trophy watch list for 2020. But it doesn’t stop there for the Trojans. Five-Star WR Bru McCoy has transferred in and is eligible to play. Thus, as expected, Daniels has transferred out. Meanwhile, including Daniels’ flight to Georgia, only 11 scholarship players from 2019 are missing, while 44 players have started at least one game. To say this team is loaded is an obvious understatement.   

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Trojans led the nation in starts by underclassmen last season (66.9%).

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: vs. Washington (11/14)

 

UTAH
TEAM THEME: WHERE HAS ALL THE POWER GONE?

2020 Recruit Rank: 29 • Ret Starters: Off - 7 / Def - 2 • RPR: Total: 130 (105 O / 130 D)

A No. 16 final AP ranking last season appears to be a nice achievement – until you realize the Utes were one win away from the College Football Playoff until they imploded against Oregon in the Pac-12 title game. The defending Pac-12 South champs have plenty of holes to fill in 2020. They were hit harder than any FBS team in terms of returning production, including 7 players taken in the 2020 NFL draft with only LSU, Ohio State, Michigan, and Alabama with more. Meanwhile, graduate transfer QB Jake Bentley arrives having started three seasons with South Carolina. He’ll battle Texas transfer Cameron Rising for the starting job. They’ll also need to replace star RB Zack Moss, drafted by Buffalo with the 86th pick.     

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Kyle Whittingham is the longest tenured head coach in the Pac-12.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. USC (10/2)