2020 Conference-USA Football Betting Preview
Posted: 2020-07-07

A QB Conference

Conference-USA has developed an outstanding tradition of quarterbacks throughout its history. Like last season 2020 could mark one of the deepest, most experienced groups of signal-callers in years with as many as 9 C-USA teams returning starters from last season. Last year’s C-USA Co-First team QB Chris Robison of Florida Atlantic returns possessing 6,241 passing yards, 40 TDs, 18 INTs and a passing Efficiency Rating of 142.40 in two seasons with the Owls.

All Conference-USA

The 2020 All-Conference USA Team features 13 selections from UAB, followed by WKU up next at 12 picks. Three other teams - Charlotte, FIU and Southern Miss – check in with double-digit selections with 10 picks, while with defending champion FAU features eight players on the All-Conference squad.

 

This Is How We Bowl

Last season marked the 150th anniversary of college football and the 25th season of Conference-USA. Throughout its history, Conference-USA has held its own during the postseason, going a respectable 61-64 SU and 63-60-2 ATS overall. However, in bowl games since 2011, Conference USA teams stand 33-24 SU and 31-24-2 ATS, including 24-6 SU and 19-9-2 ATS when favored.

 

Note: Team write-ups are excerpts from the 2020 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine on sale at newsstands nationwide. The numbers following each team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. The RPR represents each team’s overall, offensive and defensive rankings in overall returning production experience.

CUSA EAST

CHARLOTTE
TEAM THEME: HEALED OVER

2020 Recruit Rank: 88 • Ret Starters: Off - *7 / Def - 6 • RPR: Total: 74 (28 O / 116 D)

Will Healy arrived last year from Austin Peay where he orchestrated one of the most incredible turnarounds in college football history, going 8-4 in his second year with the Governors after they had gone 1-45 over the previous four years. He took over a fledgling 49ers program that had gone 12-36 in its four FBS seasons and immediately took them to a bowl game. Charlotte recognized what they had in Healy, promptly extending his contract while bumping his salary to $755,000. With it, Healy proclaimed, “Let’s win conference championships.” His first order of business was reeling in transfer RB Tre Harbison, who rushed for consecutive 1,000-yard seasons with Northern Illinois. That championship may be closer than many on the outside realize.  

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Charlotte is 10-2 ATS at home in conference games the last three years. 

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PASS

 

FLORIDA ATLANTIC
TEAM THEME: CONFUCIOUS SAY

2020 Recruit Rank: 73 • Ret Starters: Off - *6 / Def - 3 • RPR: Total: 109 (83 O / 120 D)
After winning 11 games and being left out of the final AP Top 25 poll for the 2017 season, the Owls reverted to their losing ways in 2018, going 5-7. Now, on the heels of another 11-win season in 2019, Willie Taggart has been brought in to head off that ugly trend. It won’t be easy. Not only will Taggart be guiding the nation’s 109th unit in overall Returning Production, QB Chris Robison not withstanding, he inherits a team that ranked No. 116 in the nation in Most Penalties last year. That’s noteworthy considering his last three teams (FSU in 2019 and 2018, Oregon in 2016) finished No. 129, 129, and 126 in Most Penalties. A wise old man might say: Fade defenseless Owls this season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Five of FAU’s six road games this season come against foes that were in a bowl game last year.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY AGAINST: at Middle Tennessee (11/28)

 

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
TEAM THEME: VERY BUTCH

2020 Recruit Rank: 74 • Ret Starters: Off - 4 / Def - 6 • RPR: Total: 123 (129 O / 84 D)

Safe to say the FIU program is on the FBS map thanks to Butch Davis’ decision to return to his roots and resume his head-coaching career. The primary reason for that success lies in the fact that since Davis took over the program three years ago, the Panthers’ average recruiting class ranks 78.5 overall. Before his arrival it was 106.5. That’s a jump of 28 positions which, coupled with Davis’ coaching prowess, is why FIU has hit the bowling alley each season since he came home. Because underclassmen started the sixth-fewest amount (11.6%) of games last season, they’ll be light in Returning Production this season, including QB James Morgan, one of over 90% of players to have graduated under Davis.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Butch Davis is 7-0 ATS in his CFB career as a dog when coming off a loss of 12 or more points.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: vs. Marshall (10/31)

 

MARSHALL
TEAM THEME: 8-WIN MACHINE

2020 Recruit Rank: 96 • Ret Starters: Off - *9 / Def - 4 • RPR: Total: 40 (22 O / 64 D)

Right on cue, last year’s 8-win campaign was the Thundering Herd’s 7th winning season in Doc Holliday’s 10-year tenure with Marshall, where his troops have averaged 7.8 wins per season under his direction. And there is no reason to feel otherwise that the Herd is not in for more of the same in 2020, especially with QB Isaiah Green, leading rusher Brenden Knox, and five senior linemen back in 2020. They’re part of an offensive Returning Production unit that ranks No. 22 overall. One red flag, though, is that Holliday brings in his worst recruiting class in a decade. Here’s hoping his haphazard 3-13 mark against .750 or greater foes in the regular season does not factor in this campaign.     

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Thundering Herd stands 6-1 SUATS in bowl games under Holliday.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: vs. Middle Tennessee (11/14) - *KEY

 

MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TEAM THEME: BLUE BALLS

2020 Recruit Rank: 90 • Ret Starters: Off - *9 / Def - 5 • RPR: Total: 54 (12 O / 101 D)

Talk about a team sitting on both sides of the returning production seesaw, meet the 2020 Blue Raiders. Led by the longest tenured coach in the CUSA, Rick Stockstill, MTSU suffered its first losing season since 2011 last year, which makes them a certified “mission team” in 2020. The good news is the offense is loaded with returning experience, including QB Asher O’Hara (over 3,800 passing and rushing yards last year), and an OL line with four returning starters. Unfortunately, the Raiders are practically bare-naked on the defensive experience front. Hence the aforementioned seesaw factor will be in play this season. Remember, Stockstill has had only four non-bowl-eligible seasons in 14 seasons with Middle Tennessee and he’s mad as hell.   

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Blue Raiders went 8-4 SU and 8-3 ATS in 2012 following their last losing season.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: vs. Florida Atlantic (11/28)

 

OLD DOMINION
TEAM THEME: NEW TERRITORY

2020 Recruit Rank: 94 • Ret Starters: Off - *8 / Def - 9 • RPR: Total: 7 (19 O / 10 D)

Former head coach Bobby Wilder led the Monarchs from FCS waters into the big pool and won 21 games his first three seasons at the FBS level. Then, after winning just 10 games the following three years, he decided to pull the plug. Enter Ricky Rahne, a long time assistant and offensive coordinator under James Franklin at Vanderbilt and Penn State. And Rahne enters with a big splash, signing arguably the best recruiting class the Monarchs have had in memory. They’ll mesh with a deeply experienced squad that ranks No. 7 overall in Returning Starter Production. For a team that slipped 152 YPG on offense while improving 97 YPG on defense in 2019, Rahne appears to be the perfect panacea.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Monarchs are 1-9 ATS all-time at home when coming off a non-conference game.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: vs. Virginia (10/24)

 

WESTERN KENTUCKY
TEAM THEME: BEYOND THE HILL

2020 Recruit Rank: 80 • Ret Starters: Off - 7 / Def - 9 • RPR: Total: 41 (90 O / 6 D)

 
The Hilltoppers showed what a “Mission Team” is capable of when they went from 3 wins to 9 last year. Thus was the debut of head coach Tyson Helton (USC coach Clay’s brother). They did so by improving on both sides of the ball, and more to the point on defense where they finished the season No. 24 overall. Best of all, WKU’s two-deep is markedly experienced in 2020. In addition, Helton’s troops were extremely well disciplined as the No. 3 ranked teams in nation in Fewest Penalties last season. Still, it won’t be a walk in the park, as Western Kentucky will take on no less than nine foes that played in bowl games last season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Hilltoppers were 4-1 in one-possession games last season.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: vs. Marshall (10/10)

 

CUSA WEST

 

LOUISIANA TECH
TEAM THEME: RETURN TO SENDER

2020 Recruit Rank: 75 • Ret Starters: Off - 6 / Def - 2 • RPR: Total: 120 (78 O / 128 D)

 

Thanks to a collection of seniors that started 56.3% of their games last season, the fourth-largest percentage in the nation, the Bulldogs registered their first 10-win campaign in its school history. Through it all, the Techsters were ranked No. 1 nationally in Red Zone Defense last season. But as is the case with most teams that met with great success behind a senior-laden class the previous season, a return to reality is as predictable as the sun coming up in the east and going down in the west. Worse, with both coordinators now gone, head coach Skip Holtz will need to re-tool a defense that returns just two starters with a Returning Production ranking of No. 128. The re-do starts now.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Bulldogs are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in bowl games under Skip Holtz.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Rice (11/14)

 

NORTH TEXAS
TEAM THEME: HIERARCHY CALLING

2020 Recruit Rank: 68 • Ret Starters: Off - 6 / Def - 6 • RPR: Total: 121 (114 O / 108 D)

Up until last year’s skid mark, North Texas head coach Seth Littrell sat high on the Group of 5 ladder of coaches soon headed to a Power 5 school. A 4-win season, despite outgaining foes 8 yards per game, occurred mainly when the Mean Green dropped four contests by a touchdown or less. That and a 0-3 SUATS finish to conclude the campaign all but sealed UNT’s fate. Losing OC Graham Harrell to USC and QB Mason Fine to injuries was simply too much to overcome. With 16 freshmen from the 2019 recruiting class redshirted, and coming off sterling recruiting efforts the past two seasons, look for Littrell to inch his way back up the ladder in 2020.   

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Mean Green ranked No. 127 in Red Zone Defense last season.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: at Houston (9/26)

 

RICE
TEAM THEME: FLIGHT SCHOOL

2020 Recruit Rank: 93 • Ret Starters: Off - *7 / Def - 10 • RPR: Total: 10 (70 O / 1 D)

Katie bar the door... the Owls enter the 2020 campaign riding a three-game win skein for the first time since 2014. And fueling the enthusiasm this season is a defense that ranks No. 1 overall in the nation in Returning Production Rankings. Head coach Mike Bloomgren was an assistant coach for four seasons with the New York Jets before serving an additional seven years on David Shaw’s staff at Stanford before taking the reins at Rice in 2018. It was a tall task, to say the least, inheriting a one-win Owls squad. Nevertheless, Bloomgren punched a hole in the CUSA recruiting wars, soaring with the best class of recruits and out of state transfer talent in school history.         

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Owls were the No. 2 ranked team in the nation in Fewest Penalties last season.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: at North Texas (11/21)

 

SOUTHERN MISS
TEAM THEME: ZIG-ZAGGING

2020 Recruit Rank: 76 • Ret Starters: Off - *8 / Def - 6 • RPR: Total: 69 (50 O / 86 D)

Golden Eagles head coach Jay Hopson couldn’t have laid out the 2020 schedule any better if he drew it up himself. His troops will face 6 teams that owned a losing record last season along with 6 squads that went to a bowl game. The beauty of it is USM will face none of them in back-to-back fashion. In the process, the Eagles will look to earn bowl eligibility for the 6th season in a row. Starting QB Jack Abraham is back after tossing for nearly 3,500 yards last season. Topping it off, Hopson signed three JUCO receivers to join 8 other returning starters on offense. Anything less than a 5th bowl bid in the past six seasons would be a disappointment.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Per ESPN’s Bill Connelly, the Eagles have lost their last seven games against Power 5 conference foes by an average of 23 PPG.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: at Western Kentucky (11/14)

 

UAB
TEAM THEME: NUMBER CRUNCHERS

2020 Recruit Rank: 103 • Ret Starters: Off - *9 / Def - 9 • RPR: Total: 8 (14 O / 20 D)

It was no surprise when the Blazers opened as the favorite in the CUSA West with an 8 season-win projection. Not after averaging 8.5 wins per season under head coach Bill Clark. More important is a defense that has surrendered just 302.5 yards per game the past two seasons, with nine of last year’s starters coming back, matching the same returnees on offense. According to Bill Connelly of ESPN, the stop unit is anchored by linebackers that registered 44 tackles for a loss, 2 sacks, 9 forced fumbles and 59 run stuffs last year, all of whom return in 2020. Taking on only three FBS foes that owned a winning record last year should prove fortuitous for Clark’s crew.    

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Blazers are 21-3 SU and 16-4-1 ATS at home under Clark, including 6-0-1 ATS when coming off a loss.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: vs. Western Kentucky (10/17)

 

UTEP
TEAM THEME: DIGGING UP BONES
    
2020 Recruit Rank: 131 • Ret Starters: Off - 4 / Def - 5 • RPR: Total: 129 (118 O / 119 D)

To say that head coach Dana Dimel has been a disappointment with UTEP would not be fair. After all, he inherited a 0-12 team when he came aboard two seasons ago and owns two wins – albeit against Houston Baptist and Rice. Still, WagerTalk.com projects the Miners to be underdogs in all but one game this season (New Mexico State). UTEP’s defense will take on a fresh appearance in 2020 for a number of reasons. First, the Miners will switch from a 3-4 base to a 4-3. Plus, they could have a bevy of new starters after bringing in 10 junior college transfers. And speaking of new, the ancient Sun Bowl Stadium was renovated and will debut its new look this season.  

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Miners were No. 130 (worst) in 4th Down Conversion Defense and No. 129 in 3rd Down Defense last season.
POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Florida International (11/7) 

 

UTSA
TEAM THEME: WHAT LEGENDS ARE MADE OF

2020 Recruit Rank: 105 • Ret Starters: Off - *8 / Def - 5 • RPR: Total: 63 (30 O / 94 D)

New head coach Jeff Traylor, a former associate head coach at Texas, SMU and Arkansas, comes to San Antonio with strong credentials. A four-time Texas High School Coach of the Year, Traylor led his squads to five state championship game appearances, three state titles and a dozen district crowns. After 15 years on its sidelines, Gilmer High School renamed Buckeye Stadium to Jeff Traylor Stadium to honor his successful career. Hall of Fame coach Mack Brown commented, “Jeff Traylor was a legendary high school coach at Gilmer. UTSA hit a home run with this hire.” The schedule maker did Traylor no favors, though, opening the season at LSU – the first of four road games against bowl squads.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
The Roadrunners are just 7-25 ATS in SU conference losses.

POINTSPREAD POWER PLAY:
PLAY ON: vs. Old Dominion (10/17)