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Posted: 2020-05-17
By conventional measure, weighing an NFL team's strength of schedule is simple and straightforward.
The common approach is to collectively add-up each opponent's win-loss record from the previous season to help determine each opponent's potential win probability for the coming campaign.
But that has little merit this season given each team’s personnel changes, coaching transformations and scheduling nuances.
NFL True Strength Of Schedule Versus Opponent’s Season Win Totals
A different approach that I developed a few years back was simply to assess each team and its opponent's season win totals by tallying the accumulative amount of projected wins for the season ahead.
It's my contention that this represents a truer methodology. After all, which is more relevant: knowing how an opponent fared in last year's battles, or the expected degree of difficulty awaiting them this year?
2020 Las Vegas Season Win Totals
Let's take a look at the opening 2020 NFL season win totals posted by the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas on May 7.
Teams are ranked overall from top-to-bottom below based on each team's foes projected win totals for the 2020 season, from most difficult to easiest.
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As you can see by this method, the New York Giants will take on the most difficult schedule with opponents’ projected season wins totaling 138, followed by the Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders, and New York Jets. On the flip side, the Indianapolis Colts have the cushiest schedule in 2020, with the Tennessee Titans, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, and the Los Angeles Chargers also beneficiaries of a soft slate.
In addition, the Houston Texans face the toughest non-division schedule with the Cincinnati Bengals going up against the easiest non-division foes. The bad news for the Bengals, though, is they will face the toughest division slate, while the Colts draw the easiest division pairings.
Also note that many of the opening season-win totals carried extra "juice" or vigorish (i.e. Carolina 5.5 “over” -150, Indianapolis 9 “under” +130. For the purpose of this study the extra cost was removed from all season win totals.
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