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Posted: 2019-05-03
By conventional measure, weighing an NFL team's strength of schedule is simple and straightforward.
The common approach is to collectively add-up each opponent's win-loss record from the previous season to help determine each opponent's potential win probability for the coming campaign.
Playbook Method: NFL Strength Of Schedule vis-a-vis Season Win Totals
Another variable is to assess each opponent's season win totals for the upcoming season and tally the accumulative amount of wins.
It's my contention this represents a truer methodology. After all, which is more relevant: knowing how an opponent fared in last year's battles, or the expected degree of difficulty awaiting them this year?
SuperBook Season Win Totals
Let's take a look at the opening 2019 NFL season win totals posted by the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas on April 30.
Teams are ranked from top-to-bottom based on each team's foes most projected season win totals to the fewest season win totals.
As you can see by this method, Houston will take on the most difficult schedule, followed by Denver and Oakland. On the flip side, New England has the cushiest schedule in 2019 (for the 2nd year in a row), with the New York Jets and the Philadelphia Eagles also beneficiaries of a soft slate.
Team Team Win Total Foes Win Totals vs Division vs Non Division Houston Texans 8.5 137 51 86 Denver Broncos 7 135 52 83 Oakland Raiders 6 135 54 81 Atlanta Falcons 8.5 134.5 50 84.5 Chicago Bears 9 134 49 85 Tennessee Titans 8 134 52 82 Arizona Cardinals 5 132.5 54 78.5 Carolina Panthers 8 132.5 51 81.5 Miami Dolphins 5 132.5 52 80.5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6.5 132.5 54 78.5 Jacksonville Jaguars 8 132 52 80 Kansas City Chiefs 10.5 132 45 87 Seattle Seahawks 8.5 131.5 47 84.5 Minnesota Vikings 9 130 49 81 New Orleans Saints 10.5 130 46 84 Detroit Lions 6.5 129.5 56 73.5 Indianapolis Colts 9.5 129.5 49 80.5 San Francisco 49ers 8 129.5 48 81.5. Baltimore Ravens 8.5 129 48 80.5 Cincinnati Bengals 6 129 53 76 Green Bay Packers 9 129 49 80 Washington Redskins 6.5 129 49 80 Dallas Cowboys 9 128.5 44 84.5 Los Angeles Chargers 9.5 128.5 47 81.5 Pittsburg Steelers 9 128 47 81 Los Angeles Rams 10.5 127 43 84 Buffalo Bills 6.5 125 47 78.5 New York Giants 6 125 50 75 Cleveland Browns 9 124 47 77 Philadelphia Eagles 9.5 123.5 43 80.5 New York Jets 7.5 122.5 45 77.5 New England Patriots 11 120.5 38 82.
In addition Houston also faces the toughest non-division schedule with Detroit going up against the easiest non-division foes. Finally, again it’s New England facing the weakest division slate, and Detroit drawing the toughest division pairings.
Also note that many of the opening season-win totals carried extra "juice" (i.e. Buffalo 6.5 “over” -130, Houston 8.5 “under” -140). For the purpose of this study the extra cost was removed from all season win