By conventional measure, weighing an NFL team's strength of schedule is simple and straightforward.
The common approach is to collectively add-up each opponent's win-loss record from the previous season to help determine each opponent's potential win probability for the coming campaign.
Playbook Method: NFL Strength Of Schedule vis-a-vis Season Win Totals
Another variable is to assess each opponent's season win totals for the upcoming season and tally the accumulative amount of wins.
It's my contention this represents a truer methodology. After all, which is more relevant: knowing how an opponent fared in last year's battles, or the expected degree of difficulty awaiting them this year?
SuperBook Season Win Totals
Let's take a look at the opening 2018 NFL season win totals posted by the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas on April 29.
Teams are ranked from top-to-bottom based on each team's foes most projected season win totals to the fewest season win totals.
| Team |
Team Win Total |
Foe Win Total |
Division |
Non Division |
| Arizona Cardinals |
5 |
136 |
53 |
83 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
6.5 |
135.5 |
55.5 |
80 |
| New York Giants |
6.5 |
133.5 |
52 |
81.5 |
| Philadelphia Eagles |
10.5 |
132.5 |
44 |
88.5 |
| Cleveland Browns |
5.5 |
132 |
51 |
81 |
| New Orleans Saints |
9.5 |
132 |
49 |
83 |
| Washington Redskins |
7 |
132 |
51 |
81 |
| Carolina Panthers |
9 |
131.5 |
52 |
79.5 |
| Detroit Lions |
8 |
131.5 |
53 |
78.5 |
| Seattle Seahawks |
8 |
131.5 |
47 |
84.5 |
| Los Angeles Rams |
9.5 |
131 |
44 |
87 |
| Kansas City Chiefs |
8.5 |
130.5 |
48 |
82.5 |
| Chicago Bears |
6.5 |
130 |
56 |
74 |
| Dallas Cowboys |
8.5 |
130 |
48 |
82 |
| Minnesota Vikings |
10 |
130 |
49 |
81 |
| Buffalo Bills |
6.5 |
129.5 |
46 |
83.5 |
| Miami Dolphins |
6 |
128.5 |
47 |
81.5 |
| Atlanta Falcons |
9 |
128 |
48 |
80 |
| Denver Broncos |
7 |
128 |
51 |
77 |
| Indianapolis Colts |
6.5 |
128 |
51 |
77 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars |
9 |
128 |
46 |
82 |
| Green Bay Packers |
10 |
127.5 |
49 |
78.5 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
10.5 |
127.5 |
41 |
82.5 |
| Tennessee Titans |
8 |
127 |
48 |
79 |
| Baltimore Ravens |
8 |
126 |
46 |
80 |
| Cincinnati Bengals |
7 |
126 |
48 |
78 |
| New York Jets |
6 |
126 |
47 |
79 |
| San Francisco 49ers |
9 |
125 |
45 |
80 |
| Los Angeles Chargers |
9 |
124.5 |
47 |
77.5 |
| Oakland Raiders |
8 |
124 |
49 |
75 |
| Houston Texans |
8.5 |
122.5 |
47 |
75.5 |
| New England Patriots |
11 |
122.5 |
37 |
85.5 |
|
As you can see by this method, Arizona will take on the most difficult schedule, with Houston and New England facing the easiest slate. In addition Philadelphia will face the toughest non-division schedule with Chicago drawing the softest route outside the division.
Also note that many of the opening season-win totals carried extra "juice" (i.e. Arizona 5 -130 over, Green Bay 10 -140 under). For the purpose of this study the extra cost was removed from all season win totals.