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By Marc Lawrence
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Monday, Dec 22 |
Following the demolition of two Group of Five teams from this year’s College Football Playoff, former coaches and players discussed the ongoing debate about the Group of 5.
The 2025 CFP was not kind to these teams.
No. 12 seed James Madison, the Sun Belt champion, and No. 11 seed Tulane from the American Athletic Conference, both faced early and frequent defeats in their first-round games Saturday.
Both teams received automatic bids as two of the five highest-ranked conference champions. James Madison earned the last spot after five-loss Duke defeated Virginia in the ACC championship, removing the Cavaliers from CFP contention. Tulane qualified by beating North Texas 34–21 in the American title game.
However, after a lackluster opening weekend, questions arose about including Group of 5 teams in the 12-team playoff. Despite impressive seasons, Notre Dame—the highest-ranked team left out—and 12th-ranked BYU might have offered better matchups.
Tulane coach Jon Sumrall, who will join the SEC at Florida next season, defended G-5 programs after Saturday’s loss.
"There should be access for at least one G-5 team moving forward," Sumrall stated. "I understand the criticism. Based on our performance tonight, we might not have helped the critics, but I believe at least one G-5 spot should exist."
Fox Sports analyst Joel Klatt of Foxx Sports called for a playoff reform, saying, “I genuinely feel bad for these JMU players…they are a good team that should be competing for a national championship on a proper level…now, most will only remember them for tonight…not their fault that college football can’t figure out a proper postseason structure.”
Klatt's point raises the question: Should there be two FBS Playoffs – one for Group of Five conferences and one for the Power Four?
Currently, it resembles minor league teams competing against major league teams for the World Series. |
ON TODAY'S SCORECARD
Winners and Losers
The recently expanded 12-team College Football Playoff debuted this past weekend and it was good news and bad news for half of the eight participants.
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Miami upset Texas A&M in a defensive battle, securing a significant win for the ACC in the College Football Playoff.
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Alabama overcame a 17-point deficit to defeat Oklahoma, setting up a Rose Bowl matchup against No. 1 Indiana.
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Oregon and Mississippi easily defeated their Group of Five opponents to advance to the quarterfinals
Those were the biggest results of the first round of the 2025 College football Playoff over the weekend.
While the Crimson Tide took the all-SEC matchup, the win by the Hurricanes in College Station is a feather in the cap for the ACC after the conference was nearly left out of the Playoff entirely. In the end, Miami did what Notre Dame could not and beat the Aggies — and on the road, no less.
Winners
The ACC
There was a strong possibility the conference would not have a single team in the 12-team bracket. Still, the Hurricanes were a late and controversial addition to the field despite topping the Irish during the regular season. While not changing the fact the ACC was the weakest of the Power Four leagues during the regular season, to have Miami become the first team to beat A&M in College Station this year should be a huge confidence booster for the conference.
Miami
Miami ran for 175 yards on 6.3 yards per carry and was the tougher and more physical team in its 10-3 rock fight against A&M. Nearly every inch of the yardage belonged to running back Mark Fletcher Jr., who had 172 yards on 17 carries, including a 56-yard scamper during a fourth-quarter touchdown drive that broke a 3-3 tie. Defensively, the Hurricanes gave up 4.3 yards per play and delivered three key takeaways, yet there is still plenty to work on: Miami’s passing game sputtered, though Carson Beck did avoid any giveaways, and the kicking game made just one of four field goals. That won’t cut it against the Buckeyes.
Kalen DeBoer
It’s extremely easy to think about how the Alabama fan base would’ve turned on DeBoer had the Tide not tied for the largest comeback in playoff history by digging out of a 17-0 deficit in the second quarter. Another loss to Oklahoma might’ve even been enough to convince DeBoer to at least take a look at the Michigan opening, given the chance for a reboot in the Big Ten.
Oregon and Mississippi
Neither team broke a sweat, and now or the first time in the 12-team era, we'll see how playing a Group of Five team in the opening round prepares the winner for a top-four opponent in the quarterfinals.
Losers
The Group of Five
Don’t blame Tulane and James Madison. The Green Wave earned the automatic Group of Five berth baked into the playoff format. JMU benefited from Duke’s ACC championship, since the selection committee couldn’t possibly put a five-loss team in the bracket. But the two teams were extremely uncompetitive against dramatically more talented Power Four competition, losing to the Rebels and Ducks by a combined 48 points.
Oklahoma
This was a slow-motion train wreck from the point Oklahoma took a 17-0 lead about four minutes into the second quarter. From there, miscues and self-enforced errors doomed the Sooners, none bigger than punter Grayson Miller’s fumble and John Mateer’s interception in the second quarter that allowed the Crimson Tide to tie the game heading into halftime. Still, it was a significant rebound year for Oklahoma and Venables against one of the toughest schedules in the country.
Texas A&M
A&M outgained Miami, gave up just only three third-down conversions and 12 first downs, had a clear edge in time of possession, was penalized for only 15 yards and held Beck and the Hurricanes’ passing game in check — but still lost as a result of three turnovers and an inability to win the battle on the line of scrimmage. No excuses. The Aggies choked. |
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GRINDING OUT THE PROFITS
An UNDER Round Up
Per Victor King’s Playbook Total Tipsheet Newsletter
Forty Niners:
0-5 Under as non-div RF’s 4 > points 0-4 Under 2nd of BB non-conference games
The league (SF this week) is
1-5 Under after Titans
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TRENDING TODAY
Not So Hopeful Heismans
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Hopes are high for Heisman Trophy winning QB Fernando Mendoza, but the fact of the matter is he is on a short list of success in the NFL.
Since 1950, 27 quarterbacks have won the Heisman Trophy. Only 20 of them ever started an NFL game at quarterback — and NFL success has been the exception, not the rule.
Just three Heisman-winning quarterbacks finished their NFL regular-season careers with a winning record:
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Roger Staubach
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Terry Bradshaw
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Cam Newton
Collectively, Heisman-winning quarterbacks since 1950 own a sub-.500 NFL regular-season record, with a combined winning percentage hovering around .490 — reinforcing the long-standing trend that college stardom has rarely translated into sustained NFL success at the position.
While Joe Burrow has bucked several historical trends — including becoming the only modern Heisman QB to lead the NFL in passing yards (2021) — he remains the exception, not the rule.
In fact, only three Heisman winners have ever led the NFL in passing yards:
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Davey O'Brien (1939)
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Johnny Lujack (1949)
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Joe Burrow (2021)
Bottom line:
For all the hype, hardware, and headlines, the Heisman Trophy has historically been a poor predictor of NFL quarterback winning success — a trend bettors would be wise to remember when projecting college royalty onto Sunday scoreboards. |
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BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW
The Bears Are Back
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It was quite a Saturday in the NFL this past weekend.
Chicago overcame a 10-point deficit late to tie the game in regulation and win it in overtime. Plus, the Eagles captured back-to-back NFC East titles for the first time since winning four straight from 2001 to 2004.
Caleb Williams and Malik Willis delivered one of the best games of 2025 with a wild final five minutes at Soldier Field on Saturday night.
Finally, the Bears have a superstar quarterback, one who delivered a walk-off 46-yard touchdown pass to DJ Moore to give Chicago an improbable 22–16 overtime victory.
Willis, who filled in for the injured Jordan Love, helped the Packers build a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter before a series of killer mistakes helped the Bears steal the game.
With the loss, the Packers remained the seventh seed in the NFC, while the Bears are now in an ideal position to capture the NFC North title in the final two weeks of the regular season. Green Bay could be without Love, who sustained a concussion in the second quarter.
After the game, Moore delivered a classic line on the game when he said, “Lots of ups and downs on our side, but we fought until the end, made that s--- happen. It means a lot. At the end of the day, it’s F the Packers always.”
Meanwhile, QB Jalen Hurts helped the Eagles (10–5) regain control of a messy game after delivering a tight-window touchdown pass to tight end Dallas Goedert on third-and-15 for a 14–10 advantage with 3:27 left in the third quarter.
Everything changed after that clutch throw from Hurts.
If the Eagles had turned those empty red-zone drives into touchdowns, this game would have been over by halftime and the most significant talking point would have been about Hurt’s sensational performance. But he didn’t.
He also had a five-yard touchdown pass to DeVonta Smith on the opening drive, helping Philadelphia put aside a fumble on the opening kickoff.
This was another ugly Eagles’ game because of the special teams’ miscues, but this was a rare, efficient offensive performance – despite the fact the Philly was outgained in the contest for the 11th time in 15 games this season.
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STAT OF THE DAY
0-4 |
From this week’s PLAYBOOK College Football Bowl Guide Issue 2:
Each of last year’s four CFP teams who received byes in the Playoff were knocked out of the field without winning a game:
Oregon lost to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.
Georgia lost to Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl. Boise State lost to Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl. Arizona State lost to
Texas in the Peach Bowl. |
QUOTE OF THE DAY |
"Heaven goes by favor. If it went
by merit,
you would stay out
and your dog would go in.”
- Mark Twain |
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