ON TODAY'S SCORECARD
Rank ‘Em Up

Let’s cut to the chase. The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament begins tonight with the First Four. The tourney’s first round officially begins two days later after the field shrinks to 64 teams.

That’s a lot of games. Need help looking for potential upsets? Or even just a little guidance on how to best spend your viewing hours?

Using KenPom ratings as a barometer, here’s how the 36 games rank in terms of competitiveness — from most to least:

1. West No. 8 Villanova vs. 9 Utah State: Utah State is 32nd in KenPom, one spot ahead of Villanova. Best 8/9 in bracket.

2. Midwest No. 8 Georgia vs. 9 Saint Louis: Georgia is eight spots ahead of Saint Louis in KenPom, but susceptible to upset.

3. South No. 8 Clemson vs. 9 Iowa: Iowa is 11 spots ahead of Clemson in KenPom. Strongest case for 9-over-8 upset in bracket.

4. Midwest No. 11 SMU vs. 11 Miami (Ohio): Closest First Four game, despite Miami of Ohio having lost just once in 32 games.

5. Midwest No. 7 Kentucky vs. 10 Santa Clara: One of the most competitive 7/10s in the bracket.

6. East No. 8 Ohio State vs. 9 TCU: Ohio State has edge, but TCU is a strong defensive team (23rd in KenPom).

7. South No. 7 Saint Mary's vs. 10 Texas A&M: SMC is experienced but A&M’s athleticism could win out.

8. West No. 11 Texas vs. 11 NC State: Two 11-seeds battle for spot vs. BYU

9. West No. 6 BYU vs. 11 NC State/Texas: AJ Dybantsa will be the difference for BYU, regardless of their first-round opponent.

10. West No. 7 Miami (Fla.) vs. 10 Missouri: Missouri (KenPom No. 51) is a big step below Miami on paper, but the 7/10 line historically sees upsets often.

11. East No. 7 UCLA vs. 10 UCF: KenPom gap is 25.

12. South No. 6 North Carolina vs. 11 VCU: VCU (No. 47) is a tournament-tested defensive team. UNC missing Caleb Wilson (broken thumb) tightens this even more.

13. Midwest No. 6 Tennessee vs. 11 Miami (Ohio)/SMU: Tennessee is KenPom 14; if Miami (Ohio) beats SMU, it could test Vols.

14. West No. 5 Wisconsin vs. 12 High Point: Wisconsin is KenPom 24 but only No. 62 defensively. High Point is battle-tested. Not a sure thing for the Badgers.

15. East No. 6 Louisville vs. 11 South Florida: Bulls have won 11 in a row.

16. Midwest No. 4 Alabama vs. 13 Hofstra: Alabama is KenPom 16, but its defense (No. 68) is a weakness.

17. Midwest No. 5 Texas Tech vs. 12 Akron: Texas Tech has strong defense; Akron has a 44-spot KenPom gap but is MAC-tested.

18. East No. 5 St. John's vs. 12 Northern Iowa: Northern Iowa's No. 25 KenPom defense is elite but St. John's is KenPom 21 overall.

19. East No. 3 Michigan State vs. 14 N. Dakota State: MSU is KenPom 9 overall but struggled against UCLA in Big Ten tourney.

20. South No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. 12 McNeese: Vanderbilt is KenPom No. 13, but McNeese is a capable Southland mid-major.

21. East No. 4 Kansas vs. 13 Cal Baptist: Kansas KenPom No. 10 defense vs. first-time tourney team Cal Baptist.

22. West No. 4 Arkansas vs. 13 Hawaii: Arkansas is KenPom No. 16 overall with a top-10 offense (No. 6).

23. South No. 4 Nebraska vs. 13 Troy: Troy has won conference tournament but faces a 70-spot KenPom gap.

24. South No. 3 Illinois vs. 14 Penn: Illinois is KenPom 5 overall with the nation's No. 1 offense.

25. Midwest No. 16 UMBC vs. 16 Howard: UMBC is a significant KenPom favorite; 80-spot gap.

26. Midwest No. 3 Virginia vs. 14 Wright State: Virginia is KenPom No. 19. Wright State has a 76-spot gap to cover.

27. West No. 3 Gonzaga vs. 14 Kennesaw State: Gonzaga is an elite program with deep tournament experience. Kennesaw has a 91-spot gap.

28. West No. 2 Purdue vs. 15 Queens: Purdue is KenPom 8 overall with a No. 2 offense. Queens is a first-time tournament team.

29. East No. 2 UConn vs. 15 Furman: UConn is a national title contender. Furman is a capable mid-major, but gap is enormous.

30. Midwest No. 1 Michigan vs. 16 UMBC/Howard: Michigan is KenPom 2. Even if UMBC wins in First Four, gap is too much.

31. South No. 2 Houston vs. 15 Idaho: Houston is a KenPom power with an elite defense. No contest.

32. South No. 16 Lehigh vs. 16 Prairie View A&M: Not all 16 seeds are created equal. Could be a walkover in the First Four.

33. South No. 1 Florida vs. 16 Lehigh/Prairie View A&M: Winner of First Four faces an overwhelming gap. Smooth opener.

34. East No. 1 Duke vs. 16 Siena: Duke's No. 1 KenPom defense vs. Siena’s No. 155. One of the most lopsided matchups on paper in the entire bracket.

35. Midwest No. 2 Iowa State vs. 15 Tennessee State: Tennessee State has a 158-spot gap.

36. West No. 1 Arizona vs. 16 LIU: Arizona No. 3 KenPom, LIU No. 168. Enough said.

Tuesday, March 17

CHARLOTTE over Miami by 10

Keep this one on the down low. Charlotte has quietly become one of the NBA’s best ticket-cashing machines this season. The Hornets check in at a glossy 44-22-3 ATS at press time, the mark of a bona fide upstart. Yes, Miami has found its rhythm behind Eric Spoelstra and “83” Adebayo, but the Heat have had nothing but frostbite in the Queen City. They’re just 2-7 ATS in Charlotte in this series, including 1-6 ATS when the Hornets step on the floor carrying the same-season revenge badge. And they also have a revenge affair of their own on tap Thursday when they host the Lakers. So. Hush-hush. Tonight, we’re buzzing with sweet Charlotte.

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East Region: Duke nabbed the No. 1 overall seed for the first time since 2019, but their quest for the title won't exactly come easy in this blue blood-filled region that includes UConn, Michigan State, Kansas, Louisville and UCLA. And though the Johnnies may not be blue bloods, head coach Rick Pitino certainly is.

West Region: How's this for the West's top four seeds: Arizona just won the Big 12 tournament, Purdue won the Big Ten tournament, Arkansas won the SEC tournament and Gonzaga is arguably the most consistent March Madness team of the past decade. And don't forget about Wisconsin, which had four top-10 wins this season.

Midwest Region: Title favorite Michigan leads a region defined by its offensive firepower, as it features six of the nation's 11 highest-scoring teams in Alabama (No. 1 offense), Miami-Ohio (2), Georgia (3), Akron (6), Michigan (10) and Saint Louis (11).

South Region: If this year's tournament is as chalky as last year's, the South will treat us to a national championship rematch in the Elite Eight between No. 1 Florida and No. 2 Houston… in Houston (sorry, Gators). But watch out for No. 3 Illinois, which boasts the nation's second-best offense, per KenPom, and No. 4 Nebraska, which has the seventh-best defense.

First Four: The action begins today with No. 16 UMBC vs. No. 16 Howard (Midwest) and No. 11 Texas vs. No. 11 NC State (West). Then on Wednesday, it's No. 16 Prairie View vs. No. 16 Lehigh (South) and No. 11 Miami-Ohio vs. No. 11 SMU (Midwest).

Notes:

• Title favorites: Michigan has the best odds to cut down the nets (+325 at BetMGM), despite losing Sunday's Big Ten title game. Duke (+333) is right behind them, followed by Arizona (+425), Florida (+600), Houston (+1000) and UConn (+1800).

• The bubble: NC State (36 NET ranking), SMU (37), Texas (42 NET ranking), and Miami-Ohio (64) were the "Last Four In," while Auburn (38), Indiana (41), San Diego State (47) and Oklahoma (48) were the "First Four Out.

• Multi-bid leagues: SEC (10), Big Ten (9), ACC (8), Big 12 (8), Big East (3), West Coast (3), MAC (2), A10 (2).
  

Let the games begin!