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By Marc Lawrence
Tuesday, Dec 23

The NFL playoff races are coming down to the wire, and the one team that’s been as oppositely consistent as the New York Jets are at failing to make the NFL playoffs (15 years in a row) is Tampa Bay as the Bucs have won the NFC South division title each of the last 5 years.

But that streak is now in serious jeopardy.

So what’s wrong with Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers’ offense?

They were knocked out of first place in the NFC South after Sunday’s loss in Charlotte to the Carolina Panthers, and Mayfield has been limited to fewer than 200 passing yards in five of his last six starts, despite having most of his offensive weapons back.

The fact is Tampa has been outgained in 9 of its last 11 games and is 1-5 straight up and 0-6 against the spread since their bye week in early November.

Yet, they can steal the NFC South division with season-ending wins against Miami and Carolina.

Keep that in mind, as they are 9-1 straight up and 6-1 outright against the Panthers and Dolphins respectively.

ON TODAY'S SCORECARD
Reseeding the CFP

MLC

The second year of the 12-team College Football Playoff featured some much-needed tweaks to the seeding and format of the event, which wound up making for a much more watchable set of games in the first round.

Now though, things get serious as we move into the quarterfinal round. This group of eight teams has proven to be elite over the course of 2025 with just two more wins needed to reach Miami next month for a shot at even greater glory. 

Who looks most likely to hold that famous golden cylinder? Here’s a reseeding of the CFP field based on both recent performances per SI.com:

1. Indiana

Actual Seed: No. 1
Last Round: Bye
Next Opponent: No. 9 Alabama, Rose Bowl quarterfinal, Jan. 1

It can’t be overstated how much the Hoosiers will miss Stephen Daley up front on that defensive line but the only real Cinderella of this Elite Eight group still heads to Pasadena as one of the national title favorites. The Hoosiers have depth and an incredible coaching staff. It’s still a bit surreal to think the Heisman Trophy winner is an Indiana quarterback who will be playing at the Rose Bowl as nearly a touchdown favorite over the program that has won six of the last 16 championships, but here we are.

2. Ohio State

Actual Seed: No. 2
Last Round: Bye
Next Opponent: No. 10 Miami, Cotton Bowl quarterfinal, Dec. 31

There will be an interesting question for the Buckeyes regarding the long layoff between that Big Ten title game and their trip to Dallas, but they certainly won’t lack for motivation against the Hurricanes given results both recent and historical. There are a number of South Florida products who are wearing scarlet, including star wideout Jeremiah Smith, and that should add even more juice to the best quarterfinal matchup of the bunch.

3. Georgia

Actual Seed: No. 3
Last Round: Bye
Next Opponent: No. 6 Ole Miss, Sugar Bowl quarterfinal, Jan. 1

If you had to label one team as the trendy non-Indiana/Ohio State title pick, it’s undoubtedly the Bulldogs. They have a recent championship pedigree, the coach who everybody seems to put on a pedestal above all other peers and young talent for days which really is hitting a groove. There’s no denying that Georgia has all the right ingredients to lift the trophy in January. 

4. Oregon

Actual Seed: No. 5
Last Round: Beat No. 12 James Madison, 51–34
Next Opponent: No. 4 Texas Tech, Orange Bowl quarterfinal, Jan. 1

Yes, it was against a Group of 5 team, but did you see how crisp and terrifying the Ducks were in that first-round game? The fact they are one of the few programs that is getting healthier—especially in key spots like wideout—and look to be hitting on all cylinders at the right time should scare everybody beyond just the forthcoming Red Raiders. 

5. Texas Tech

Actual Seed: No. 4
Last Round: Bye
Next Opponent: No. 5 Oregon, Orange Bowl quarterfinal, Jan. 1

Of all the teams involved in the quarterfinals, Tech just might have the most pressure on it given the amount invested in the roster and how dominant it looked in the Big 12 (which would love to notch a CFP win for the first time in a long while). 

6. Alabama

Actual Seed: No. 9
Last Round: Beat No. 8 Oklahoma, 34–24
Next Opponent: No. 1 Indiana, Rose Bowl quarterfinal, Jan. 1

There’s still the possibility of this team tripping up on itself given the lack of a run game but being an underdog against a highly ranked opponent is where Kalen DeBoer does his best work. You can see the ceiling with this group much more clearly than you can see the floor from the last few weeks.

7. Miami

Actual Seed: No. 10
Last Round: Beat No. 7 Texas A&M, 10–3
Next Opponent: No. 2 Ohio State, Cotton Bowl quarterfinal, Dec. 31

On talent alone in that win over the Aggies, the Hurricanes showed they have everything it takes to make it back for a national title game on their home field (even with a so-so Carson Beck under center). The issue, however, is that their coaching staff wasn’t exactly operating at their peak and their path ahead is one of the most difficult possible.

8. Mississippi

Actual Seed: No. 6
Last Round: Beat No. 11 Tulane, 41–10
Next Opponent: No. 3 Georgia, Sugar Bowl quarterfinal, Jan. 1

In the most pressure-packed game in school history, the Rebels took care of business just as they did the first time around against the Green Wave. More to the point: The next game is a massive step up in weight class and a real test for a coaching staff that is far from settled. 



MLC

Hands down its the Best College
Bowl Guide on the planet - the
2025 PLAYBOOK College Bowl
Guide. Hurry, get yours now!


MLC

TRENDING TODAY
Bad Santa

MLC

NFL’s Christmas Day games feature low-stakes matchups and backup quarterbacks, disappointing fans.

Fans criticize streaming-only availability and lack of compelling teams in this year’s slate, saying “Holiday games...cannot be viewed on free network TV. The NFL is getting what it deserves.”

The NFL’s attempt to take over Christmas Day is going poorly this year.

Christmas Day used to be the NBA’s day. The National Basketball Association would air five huge games on Christmas Day and dominate the sports TV ratings for that day.

However, in recent years, the NFL has decided to air multiple games on Christmas Day.

This year, the league is airing three games on Christmas Day, with two airing on Netflix and one airing on Amazon Prime.

At the start of the season, the Christmas Day schedule looked incredibly appetizing. However, now that Christmas Week is here…it looks rough.

The three games set to be played on Christmas Day are:

  • Cowboys vs. Commanders

  • Lions vs. Vikings

  • Chiefs vs. Broncos

The Cowboys and Commanders have both already been eliminated from playoff contention. The Vikings have, as well, and will likely be without starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs have been eliminated from playoff contention and will be missing Patrick Mahmes. 

NFL fans are not looking forward to this one.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW
The Bears Are Back

It was quite a Saturday in the NFL this past weekend.

Chicago overcame a 10-point deficit late to tie the game in regulation and win it in overtime. Plus, the Eagles captured back-to-back NFC East titles for the first time since winning four straight from 2001 to 2004.

Caleb Williams and Malik Willis delivered one of the best games of 2025 with a wild final five minutes at Soldier Field on Saturday night.

Finally, the Bears have a superstar quarterback, one who delivered a walk-off 46-yard touchdown pass to DJ Moore to give Chicago an improbable 22–16 overtime victory.

Willis, who filled in for the injured Jordan Love, helped the Packers build a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter before a series of killer mistakes helped the Bears steal the game. 

With the loss, the Packers remained the seventh seed in the NFC, while the Bears are now in an ideal position to capture the NFC North title in the final two weeks of the regular season. Green Bay could be without Love, who sustained a concussion in the second quarter.

After the game, Moore delivered a classic line on the game when he said, “Lots of ups and downs on our side, but we fought until the end, made that s--- happen. It means a lot. At the end of the day, it’s F the Packers always.”

Meanwhile, QB Jalen Hurts helped the Eagles (10–5) regain control of a messy game after delivering a tight-window touchdown pass to tight end Dallas Goedert on third-and-15 for a 14–10 advantage with 3:27 left in the third quarter.

Everything changed after that clutch throw from Hurts.

If the Eagles had turned those empty red-zone drives into touchdowns, this game would have been over by halftime and the most significant talking point would have been about Hurt’s sensational performance. But he didn’t.

He also had a five-yard touchdown pass to DeVonta Smith on the opening drive, helping Philadelphia put aside a fumble on the opening kickoff.

This was another ugly Eagles’ game because of the special teams’ miscues, but this was a rare, efficient offensive performance – despite the fact the Philly was outgained in the contest for the 11th time in 15 games this season.


STAT OF THE DAY
1,000

New Orleans Saints Swiss Knife, Taysom Hill, became the first player in NFL history with 1,000 career yards passing, 1,000 career yards rushing and 1,000 career yards receiving.


QUOTE OF THE DAY

"As long as the red dice are in the air,
the gambler has hope. And hope is a wonderful thing to be addicted to.”

- Norm MacDonald


GRINDING OUT THE PROFITS
Make it a Holiday

Happy Holidays. Presented is a bowl game write-up from the 2025 PLAYBOOK Bowl Guide. Enjoy.

BOCA RATON BOWL

(Boca Raton FL • 2:00 PM • ESPN)

Louisville over Toledo by 3

After 13 seasons, Jason Candle departed Toledo for UConn, leaving us with yet another team under an interim coach. Mike Jacobs will step into the office after the game, and he will inherit a team that went 4-0 in November with the MAC’s #1-ranked defense in scoring, total defense, run defense, and passing defense. The Rockets also led ‘America’s’ Conference in scoring and total offense. They were left out of the MAC Title game because they lacked leverage in the tiebreaker. Louisville hung around the AP Top 25 and had a cup of Kombucha in the CFP rankings, but a 1-3 finish knocked them to 7th in the ACC. At least Jeff Brohm stuck around to coach after checking into the Penn State job, but his 41-51-2 ATS as a favorite pales in comparison to Toledo’s 32-18-1 ATS as an underdog. Bowl favorites off a shutout, such as UL, are 4-1 ATS since 1990, but the Redbirds are 4-9 ATS against bowl teams coming off a win. Brohm is a strange 1-4 ATS as the favorite versus the MAC when the spread is three or greater. Toledo went 10-2 ITS (In the Stats) this season, winning by an average of +172, but is 5-10 ATS in bowls since 2002 and a slightly scary 1-11 SU / 4-7 ATS when a seven-point or greater underdog. Even though Toledo is more in audition for 2026 mode than living in the moment, we expect a feisty bunch of Rockets against a Cardinals team that didn’t want to fly south for the winter.


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