ON TODAY'S SCORECARD
Rank Up

It’s been said many times that a team needs an elite quarterback and powerhouse offense to win a Super Bowl.
While that's the ideal path, it's not the only one. We don't need to look too far in the past to find a champion that wasn't in that mold.
We like to remember the 2024 Eagles as an offensive power because Saquon Barkley had a historic season, but they were first in defensive DVOA and just 13th in offensive DVOA. It was a champion founded on a fantastic defense, even if that might not be the Eagles' legacy.
The question for the Houston Texans is if their offense can be good enough for a deep playoff run. Because there's no question Houston's defense is of championship quality.
The Texans are first in the NFL in yards allowed, points allowed and EPA (expected points added) allowed per play and second in defensive DVOA behind the Seahawks.
Anyone who has seen the Texans wreck Josh Allen (career high eight sacks taken) and Patrick Mahomes (career low 19.8 passer rating) the past few weeks would likely vote Houston as the best defense in the NFL. Its offense, however, is 24th in DVOA and 24th in EPA per play, and a unit that subpar might be a problem, or in other words Eagle-ish.
But look around at a weird AFC: Everyone has a flaw this season. The Texans' defense might be the most bankable asset in the AFC playoffs, other than Allen. And we saw what happened when Houston faced Allen in Week 12 – the Texans got 8 sacks on Allen..
There seems to be a good chance we get a somewhat random Super Bowl matchup this season. It doesn't look like there are any great teams. It might come down to which team gets hot. There aren't many teams hotter than the Texans, who have won five in a row, with four coming against good teams (Jaguars, Bills, Colts, Chiefs) behind a defense that is battering opponents.
They are giving off a bit of a vibe similar to the 2015 Broncos, who won Super Bowl 50 with a superior defense after Peyton Manning hit the wall that season.
In a season defined by parity, especially in the AFC, a Super Bowl team that started 3-5 and has a bottom 10 offense might actually be fitting. |