Marc Lawrence's Playbook: Free and Guaranteed Picks

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By Marc Lawrence

Wednesday, Dec 17

As expected, Arch Manning is returning to the Texas Longhorns next year.

Although Manning had the chance to declare for the 2026 NFL draft, he has chosen to stay with Texas for his redshirt junior season.

The 6-foot-4 quarterback finished his first regular season as a starter two weeks ago with an impressive win over previously undefeated Texas A&M.

During the 2025 season, Manning completed 61.4% of his passes for 2,942 yards, 24 touchdowns, and seven interceptions, while rushing for 244 yards and eight touchdowns.

He’s already considered a likely first-round pick in the 2027 NFL draft, and with a strong season next year, it’s possible he could go No. 1 in the spring of 2027.

Meanwhile, another quarterback is moving on from his current college team.

Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola plans to enter the NCAA transfer portal. The 20-year-old signal-caller has played the last two seasons with the Cornhuskers in Lincoln, posting a 13–9 record as a starter while passing for 4,819 yards, 31 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions.

His recruitment included commitments to Ohio State (2022, later decommitted), Georgia (May 2023), and a switch to Nebraska in December 2023—motivated by family ties (his father, Dominic Raiola, was a Nebraska All-American and Rimington Trophy winner; his uncle Donovan was an assistant coach).

Ah, the smell of money. It’s in the air, everywhere.

ON TODAY'S SCORECARD
Coach Me Up

MLC

Meet the most elite club in college coaching.

Two head coaches in this year’s College Football Playoff, Georgia's Kirby Smart and Ohio State's Ryan Day, have combined for three national championships, and a third has reached the championship game in Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer.

Two more previously made the playoff in Indiana’s Curt Cignetti and Oregon’s Dan Lanning. Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire has delivered the best regular season in program history and Texas A&M coach Mike Elko led the Aggies to their most success in the regular season in decades.

Take a deeper dive, per the USA TODAY...

1. Kirby Smart, Georgia

Smart won national championships in 2021 and 2022, snapping Alabama’s stranglehold on the SEC, and has since claimed the past two SEC crowns. He’s taken over for Nick Saban as the face of college coaching and will have Georgia among the best programs in the Bowl Subdivision for as long as he remains in Athens.

2. Ryan Day, Ohio State

Day delivered last season amid major scrutiny and has Ohio State surging, a loss in the Big Ten championship game notwithstanding. He’s gone 79-11 since taking over full time in 2019 and has yet to lose more than two games in a season.

3. Curt Cignetti, Indiana

Cignetti has taken college football by storm in transforming the Hoosiers into a national powerhouse. Following a stunning playoff berth in his debut, Indiana is this year’s top seed after capturing the program’s first Big Ten championship since 1967.

4. Dan Lanning, Oregon

Nearly every school in the country would love to have Lanning, who seems very content after solidifying Oregon’s place among the elite programs in the Power Four. He’s 46-7 overall over four years and has gone 17-1 in Big Ten play with one conference championship since the Ducks joined the league in 2024.

5. Kalen DeBoer, Alabama

DeBoer’s tenure in Tuscaloosa hasn’t quite popped, though he took on one of the most daunting challenges in FBS history by replacing Saban with the Crimson Tide. But he’s won everywhere: DeBoer went 67-3 at Sioux Falls, won nine games in his lone full season at Fresno State, led Washington to the championship game in 2023 and has Alabama back in the playoff this year.

6. Mike Elko, Texas A&M

Elko had A&M on the verge of an appearance in the SEC championship game before a loss to Texas on Black Friday. That disappointment aside, he’s been able to tap into the program’s immense potential after going 16-9 in two years at Duke and being named the 2022 ACC coach of year.

The remaining six coaches were ranked in this order: 7. Mario Cristobal, Miami; 8. Brent Venables, Oklahoma; 9. Joey McGuire, Texas Tech; 10. Jon Sumrall, Tulane; 11. Bob Chesney, James Madison; 12. Pete Golding, Ole Miss.

GRINDING OUT THE PROFITS
Flying Hens

Issue 1 of the 2025 PLAYBOOK
College Bowl Guide

Louisiana over Delaware by 10

Delaware did make it to the bowl season, thanks to several teams opting out, and perhaps that silly transition rule about moving up to FBS will one day be gone. The Rajun’ Cajuns are in their seventh straight bowl game, but since Michael Desormeaux took over, they’re 0-3 in the postseason. The Fighting Blue Hens will have #1 QB Nick Minicucci available; he threw for 3,507 yards and 22 TDs while running for 10. He spread the wealth, too; 11 different Hens caught TD tosses in 2025. Louisiana will take the ground-and-pound approach, with QB Lunch Winfield, perhaps better with his legs than his arm. UL did have the second-best offense in the Sun Belt behind Texas State, and likes to run a gambling blitz-heavy defense that the veteran Minicucci will have to read quickly. Delaware is 1-5 ATS this season, either favored or as a dog of five points or fewer, and 0-3 ATS against a team coming off back-to-back wins (Louisiana has won four straight after being 2-6). The Cajuns not only have the momentum but also the numbers backing them up; favorites in bowl games with a .500 record are 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS since 2016 if they won 5+ games the season before. UL is also an impressive 5-0 ATS in outright wins as a favorite against foes coming off a win. This bowl traditionally sees a ton of offense and should be a fun watch with the Hens going to the air and the Cajuns mucking it up in the swamps. We know you’re wondering, yes, hens can fly, but they’re not really good at it.

MLC

TRENDING TODAY
Play It Again

MLC

With the Kansas City Chiefs seeing their playoff hopes go down the drain after a 16-13 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, here's how the NFL playoff picture looks with Week 15 of the season in the books, which included

Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams became the first two teams to clinch postseason spots this NFL season. Both teams are in line for the No. 1 seed in their respective conferences.

AFC

1. Denver Broncos (12-2):

Up next — vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Notable odds: The Broncos secured a postseason spot with a win over the Packers, and they are now the favorite to earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC at 73% odds, according to The Athletic's playoff predictor.

2. New England Patriots (11-3):

Up next — at Baltimore Ravens
Notable odds: The Patriots squandered their chance to clinch the AFC East title with a loss to the Bills, but they still have 71% odds to win the division, per The Athletic. They're a virtual lock to make the playoffs at 99%, according to NFL.com.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4):

Up next — at Denver Broncos
Notable odds: The Jags maintained their lead in the AFC South, and are 61% likely to win the division, per The Athletic. Their overall playoff probability is 96%, according to NFL.com.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6):

Up next — at Detroit Lions
Notable odds: The Steelers still lead the AFC North, and their win over the Dolphins boosted their playoff probability to 60%, according to NFL.com.

5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-4):

Up next — at Dallas Cowboys
Notable odds: The Chargers have a 92% shot at making the playoffs, via NFL.com. They are still very much a long shot to catch the Broncos for the division title (9%, per The Athletic).

6. Buffalo Bills (10-4):

Up next — at Cleveland Browns
Notable odds: While Buffalo's chances at catching up to New England to win the division title are still slim (29% according to The Athletic), the Bills are a virtual lock to make the playoffs.

7. Houston Texans (9-5):

Up next — vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Notable odds: The Texans' odds to make the playoffs are 97%, per The Athletic.

NFC

1. Los Angeles Rams (11-3):

Up next — at Seattle Seahawks
Notable odds: The Rams clinched a playoff berth with a win over the Lions, and they remain the NFC favorite to earn the No. 1 seed at 56%, per The Athletic. A big game at Seattle is coming Thursday.

2. Chicago Bears (10-4):

Up next — vs. Green Bay Packers
Notable odds: The Bears have an 85% shot of making the playoffs, per The Athletic, and they improved their odds of winning the NFC North to 53% thanks to a Packers loss. Saturday night's game against Green Bay very well could decide the division.

3. Philadelphia Eagles (9-5):

Up next — at Washington Commanders
Notable odds: After crushing the Raiders to end a three-game losing skid, the Eagles have 99% odds to make the playoffs, via NFL.com. The top seed, however, is almost certainly out of reach.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7):

Up next — at Carolina Panthers
Notable odds: The Buccaneers hold the tiebreaker over the Panthers in the NFC South at the moment, and they have a 77% shot at making the playoffs, per NFL.com. A pair of games against the Panthers over the next three weeks will be critical.

5. Seattle Seahawks (11-3):

Up next — vs. Los Angeles Rams
Notable odds: Though almost a lock to make the playoffs, the Seahawks are only at 27% to win the NFC West, per The Athletic. A win over the Rams on Thursday would go a long way in flipping those odds.

6. San Francisco 49ers (10-4):

Up next — at Indianapolis Colts
Notable odds: Strong playoff favorites at 99%, per The Athletic.

7. Green Bay Packers (9-4-1):

Up next — at Chicago Bears, Saturday
Notable odds: The Packers fell out of the lead for in the NFC North and dropped to 43% to win the division after a loss to the Broncos, according to The Athletic. Saturday's game in Chicago is massive.

STAT OF THE DAY
13-0 ATS

From the 2025 PLAYBOOK Bowl Guide,
Hawaii is 13-0 ATS in its last 13
lined home games.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"As a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who has
the best information.”

- Benjamin Disraeli

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