ON TODAY'S SCORECARD
The 8 That Can Be Great
DUKE
Why They’ll Win It
Cameron Boozer is the best player in college basketball, and winning has followed him everywhere. He won four state championships in high school and a national championship as a senior, won three Peach Jam titles in AAU and two gold medals with Team USA. Betting against Boozer to win something has long been a fool’s errand, and that’s why it’s hard not to back Duke to win it all.
Of late, what’s made Duke special is its defense. The Blue Devils have dominated on that end of late, holding 14 straight opponents under 70 points and climbing to the top spot nationally in defensive efficiency per KenPom. There are no mismatches to hunt against Duke. Every defender is tough and physical enough to guard multiple spots and not get hunted, and that keeps the Blue Devils out of rotations and opposing offenses out of the lane.
And while early in the season the narrative was that Duke needed a clear second option to emerge behind Boozer, the by-committee approach has worked well. Isaiah Evans is an electric scorer in spurts, Patrick Ngongba II provides another major presence around the rim, while Caleb Foster and Cayden Boozer can touch the paint in key moments. The Blue Devils’ role allocation is clear, and everyone seems bought in. There just aren’t many clear holes to exploit.
Cause for Pause
Duke’s point guard play is shaky compared to the other elite teams in title contention. And while the Blue Devils largely play through Cameron Boozer in key moments, having a true on-ball stabilizer when games start to turn on you is valuable. These same problems hurt Duke last year in its Final Four collapse vs. Houston, and you hope it won’t come back to bite them again this March.
MICHIGAN
Why They’ll Win It
At their best, Michigan looks as overwhelming as any team in recent college basketball memory. Games snowball quickly against the Wolverines when they can get out in transition thanks to their incredible size, speed and athleticism across the board. Yaxel Lendeborg and Morez Johnson Jr. are absolute freight trains running the floor, and PG Elliot Cadeau is excellent in the open court. Pop on the film of the Wolverines’ 40-point win against Gonzaga if you’d like a reminder of what it looks like when Michigan can get out and run wild.
But equally important to Michigan’s title case is why the Wolverines are so hard to beat even when they aren’t at their best. The sheer size, physicality, and rim protection (largely from 7' 3" Aday Mara) simply wears down teams as games get late. To beat Michigan, you’ll likely have to do it without getting many great shots at the rim, instead surviving on tough twos or a spurt of threes. Mara could have a Donovan Clingan–like impact on March Madness assuming he can stay out of foul trouble.
At Michigan’s best, no one touches it. At its worst, it still might be able to grind out wins. That’s the type of combination you look for in a championship contender.
Cause for Pause
Michigan is beatable when you can force the Wolverines into a half-court game and make them execute. Losing backup PG L.J. Cason, a capable shot creator off the bench, hurts even more there. The Wolverines are statistically a very good shooting team, but you’ll live with getting into a half-court execution contest with them compared to the alternative.
ARIZONA
Why They’ll Win It
No team is more physically dominant than Arizona, using overwhelming size and physicality at every spot on the floor to suffocate opponents at times. The Wildcats are able to shut off the water at the rim almost entirely with Motiejus Krivas, perhaps the nation’s most effective rim protector who blocks plenty of shots and impacts even more of them. And that’s only if you can get there: Jaden Bradley is an elite point-of-attack defender, while Ivan Kharchenkov is phenomenal on the wing and Koa Peat and Tobe Awaka are built like tanks at the four. Arizona always brings the fight to its opponent, which is usually a pretty good March recipe.
Pair that elite physicality with top-tier guard play, and you really have something cooking. Bradley is among the nation’s best late-game closers, elite at getting to spots in the midrange and making tough shots when it matters most. And the emergence of freshman Brayden Burries into a legit star scoring guard has been a revelation. Arizona beat Florida and UConn in November while Burries was struggling … his star turn has taken them to a new level even from that high point.
Cause for Pause
Conventional thinking is that in March, you need to be able to make threes in case you end up playing from behind. Just two teams in college basketball shoot a lower percentage of their shots from three than Arizona. The Wildcats still have elite spurtability due to their pace and ability to dominate the glass, but in a one-game sample the lack of shooting leaves them vulnerable.
FLORIDA
Why They’ll Win It
Florida has been dominant for most of SEC play, winning 15 of its last 16 games and 13 of those victories by double digits. How did the Gators turn the corner? The easiest area to circle is the play of their guards. Boogie Fland, much maligned early, has been excellent of late, emerging as a consistent downhill threat and a terrific on-ball defender. Xaivian Lee has also settled in and been more efficient offensively, while Urban Klavzar and Isaiah Brown have given quality minutes off the bench.
And at its core, simply stable guard play is more than enough for this Gators group to be elite given how outstanding they are up front. They dominate the backboards like few teams ever have, posting top-10 offensive and defensive rebounding rates. Their physicality wears teams down and in some cases can cause them to break, like Arkansas did in the Gators’ blowout win Saturday. Their bigs make life difficult for teams trying to score around the basket and steal easy buckets with how they run the floor and push in transition.
This is a team peaking at the right time that increasingly looks as good as the much-discussed top tier of the sport of late. Repeating is an incredibly difficult task, but it increasingly feels like the Gators have a real chance.
Cause for Pause
The Gators would be, by far, the worst three-point shooting team to ever win the title. Since the three-point line was instituted in 1987, the worst shooting team by percentage to win it all was 2011 UConn, which shot 32.9% on the season. Florida shoots just 30.8% from deep, though in SEC play it is at a more respectable 33.2% mark.
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