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By Marc Lawrence
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Monday, Mar 16 |
9.2Q
It’s not a science formula — it’s the odds of someone picking a perfect bracket in this year’s NCAA Tournament.
And yes, they’re still astronomically ridiculous.
After the First Four trims the field to 64 teams, there are 63 games left to predict. Most bracket contests start there.
If every game were simply a coin flip — favorite or underdog — the number of possible brackets would be: 2⁶³
That equals 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 possible combinations — about 9.2 quintillion.
Even when you factor in hoops knowledge, analytics, and a little gut instinct, the odds of perfection still hover around 1 in 120.2 billion.
Which explains why no one has ever pulled it off.
To put the madness in perspective:
• That’s roughly the number of atoms in 10,000 grains of sand.
• Winning the Powerball jackpot multiple times in a row is still more likely.
And if you were writing a check for 92.6 quintillion, it would look like this:
92,600,000,000,000,000,000
So, if you're filling out a bracket this March, remember:
Perfection isn’t the goal. Survival is.
Good luck — may your chalk hold, and your sleepers blow the hinges off the bracket. |
ON TODAY'S SCORECARD
News and Notes
We’ll begin breaking this year’s Big Dance down in more detail tomorrow. Until then we invite you to chew on these juicy stats and facts...
• This season features 33 Division I freshmen averaging at least 15 points per game, on pace to shatter the previous record of 26 set in 2017-18. Additionally, 10 teams in a recent AP Poll had a freshman as their leading scorer—the most since at least 2002-03. With it, only three freshmen have ever led a national champion in scoring (Okafor, Davis, Anthony), but it's firmly in play this year if you include Cameron Boozer from Duke and Brayden Burries of Arizona.
• The four No. 1 seeds boast KenPom adjusted efficiency margins over 35, a rare feat. Since KenPom tracking began in 1997, only eight teams ever hit that mark in a full season, with half from the last two years alone. Teams at this level have a strong historical edge: of the 10 all-time teams with net ratings ≥35.0, seven reached the title game and four won it all—giving these squads roughly a 50% historical shot at the championship.
• Potential for chalkier tournament exists due to NIL and talent gaps. Recent tournaments have trended fewer upsets, with last year's producing only 13 outright underdog wins (tied for fewest since 1985 expansion) and an Elite Eight of only top-3 seed, tied for the chalkiest ever.
• Among tournament teams, Michigan, a No. 1 seed from the Big Ten, ranked as having faced the strongest (toughest) strength of schedule overall. Other notable tough-schedule tournament teams include: Florida (SEC, No. 1 seed contender) — Often No. 2–4 in SOS rankings; the SEC's grind contributed heavily... Arizona (Big 12) and Duke (ACC) — Both in the top 5–10 on most lists, with strong non-con and conference schedules... Kansas, Alabama, Purdue, and Kentucky — Frequently appear in top-10 SOS among tourney teams, per NET and other metrics.
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GRINDING OUT THE PROFITS
OVER Here, UNDER There
Victor King’s
NBA POWER RATINGS & DAY TO DAY TRENDS
MONDAY, March 16th
Golden St @ WASHINGTON – GSt: 5-1 ATS L5 vs Wizards, 4-1 ATS away in 0/1 rest sit / Was: 1-7 ATS home in 1/0 rest sit, 14-3 OU after Celtics... Orlando @ ATLANTA – Orl: 0-7 ATS Monday RG, 1-5 ATS after Heat / Atl: 1-5 OU L6 div HG... Portland @ BROOKLYN – Por: 16-1-1 ATS in 0/1 rest sit!, 0-4 OU away vs .300 < opp / Brk: 0-4 ATS in 1/0 rest sit TY... Dallas @ NEW ORLEANS – 4**** Best Play ‘UNDER the Total’ – Dal: 0-8 OU vs .400 < div opp / 0-4 OU away w/ no rest TY / 0-4 OU L4 vs Pelicans (219.7) // NOrl: 0-6 OU w/ 2 days rest / 0-4 OU L4 as div favs / 1-4 OU home vs unrested opp... Phoenix @ BOSTON – Pho: 0-5 OU in 2/1 rest sit, 1-7 OU away vs .650 > opp / Bos: 5-0 ATS L5 vs Suns, 0-6 OU home in 1/2 rest sit... Memphis @ CHICAGO – Mem: 5-0 OU L5 vs Bulls (227.2) / Chi: 4-1 ATS L5 vs Grizz, 9-2 OU Mondays... La Lakers @ HOUSTON – Lal: 7-0 OU Mondays TY / Hou: 4-0 ATS aft Pelicans, 8-2 ATS in 2/1 rest sit... San Antonio @ LA CLIPPERS – San: 2-8 ATS Mondays, 0-6 OU away in 1/1 rest sit / LAC: 7-1 ATS home in 1/1 rest sit, 0-5 OU Mondays vs conf opp.
Remember, you can read all of Victor King’s NBA Power Ratings & Day to Day
Trends in each issue of the Playbook
NBA Only weekly newsletter.
Click here to Download your Copy |
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TRENDING TODAY
A Drop in the Bucket |
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Not looking to beat a horse to death, we came across this and it’s worth a mention...
Oklahoma City Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander achieved a feat on Thursday that had appeared beyond reach for over 60 years. Gilgeous-Alexander broke Wilt Chamberlain’s 63-year-old NBA record with his 127th consecutive 20-point game in the Thunder’s 104-102 win over the Boston Celtics at Paycom Center.
With the record books now getting updated, here is a look at the longest 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 60-point streaks in NBA history.
10 points – LeBron James: 1,297 games
20 points – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 127 games
30 points – Wilt Chamberlain: 65 games
40 points – Wilt Chamberlain: 14 games (twice)
50 points – Wilt Chamberlain: 7 games
60 points – Wilt Chamberlain: 4 games
We had, of course, seen LeBron James’ incredible 10-point streak come to an end. In the Los Angeles Lakers’ 123-120 win over the Toronto Raptors on Dec. 4, 2025. James finished with eight points against the Raptors, which ended a run that began all the way back in 2007.
James’ consistency was simply ridiculous, and he is well clear at the top here, too. Michael Jordan is a distant second at 866 games. |
AROUND THE WATER COOLER
All The Young Guns
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This is one of the more insane stories coming out of the College Football offseason.
Louisiana Tech, due to an ongoing lawsuit with Conference USA, is currently scheduled for games in both C-USA & Sun Belt for the upcoming season. The result is this 20-game gauntlet:
They’ve even got a pair of doubleheaders scheduled on the road on Saturday, November 7 at Jacksonville State and at Troy, and then another double-dipper on Saturday, November 28 at Western Kentucky and at Georgia Southern.
To help complete this Herculean task they’ve reached out to the grandson of Harry “Suitcase” Simpson.
Forget strength of schedule — this is strength of luggage.
No word yet on his reply.
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QUOTE OF THE DAY |
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"I never knew a man who was good at making excuses
who was good at anything else."
- Benjamin Franklin |
STAT OF THE DAY
27 |
The number games with 10 or more offensive rebounds
by Wichita State, the most in the nation.
Little good that did them in its
70-55
title game loss to USF yesterday.
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