ON TODAY'S SCORECARD
Worst to First

I love playing this game, anticipating which team in each division is most likely to go fro worst to first each season.

If there's one thing that makes the NFL so exciting every year, it's the fact that it's one of the most unpredictable sports on the planet. If your favorite team came in last place in its division last year that doesn't really matter, because there's always a chance it could turn things around this year. 

Since the league realigned its divisions in 2002, there have been 29 teams that have gone from worst to first, which is an average of 1.26 teams per year over that 23-season span. 

Basically, NFL history says that at least one team is going to go from worst to first this year. With that in mind, here’s a ranking the eight last-place finishers from 2024 to find out who has the best chance to pull off a worst-to-first run in 2025...

8. Cleveland Browns
2024 record: 3-14
Odds to win AFC North: +3500

Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, the Browns have won five division titles, but they've never gone from worst to first and it's probably a safe bet that drought will continue in 2025. 

7. New Orleans Saints
2024 record: 5-12
Odds to win NFC South: +1300

The last time the Saints went from worst to first came in 2009 and they also won the Super Bowl, making them one of just two teams -- along with the 2017 Eagles -- over the past 20 years to win a Super Bowl in the same season where they went worst to first. 

6. Tennessee Titans
2024 record: 3-14
Odds to win AFC South: +700

If history is any indication, the Titans are in trouble, because they've NEVER gone worst to first in franchise history, and that even includes their 37 seasons as the Houston Oilers. Since moving to Tennessee in 1997, they've never even made the playoff the season after finishing in last place. 

5. New York Giants
2024 record: 3-14
Odds to win NFC East: +2200

The Giants just became 8th team since 2009 to outscore their preseason opponents by at least 60 points. Of the previous 7 teams:
• 6 made the playoffs
• 2 won the Super Bowl
• Averaged 11.1 wins
• Russell Wilson was the QB for 2 of the 7

And they play in a division where there hant been a repeat winner in 21 years.

4. Las Vegas Raiders
2024 record: 4-13
Odds to win AFC West: +1200

The Raiders have never gone from worst to first, and based on how stacked the AFC West is this year, it's going to be tough to end that drought in 2025. However, during his 14 years in Seattle, new head coach Pete Carroll had 11 winning seasons, going to the playoffs 10 times.

3. Chicago Bears
2024 record: 5-12
Odds to win NFC North: +550

Of all the teams on this list, the Bears were the most recent one to go from worst to first. After finishing 5-11 in 2017, they rebounded by winning the NFC North in 2018 with a 12-4 record.

2. New England Patriots
2024 record: 4-13
Odds to win AFC East: +550

The Pats have the easiest strength of schedule in the AFC. The last time the Patriots went worst to first came during Tom Brady's first two seasons with the team. During his rookie year -- when he was the starter yet -- the Patriots finished in last place in the AFC East with a 5-11 record. One year later, the legend of Brady started as he led the team to first-place finish and an eventual win in Super Bowl XXXVI over the Rams. 

1. San Francisco 49ers
2024 record: 6-11
Odds to win NFC West: +155

The 49ers have only gone from worst to first a total of one time in franchise history and that came all the way back in 1970. After going 4-8-2 in 1969, the 49ers returned with a vengeance in 1970. Not only did they win the NFC West with a record of 10-3-1, but they also made it all the way to the NFC title game before losing to Dallas.  And they are favored to win the NFC West this season.

From this week’s PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter issue 2 -

UTSA (+) vs TEXAS A&M

Rest assured, Mike Elko failed to win over Aggies fans in his debut season last year when his team finished with a 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS run. However, he inherited a program that had gone just 12-13 in the previous two years. Texas A&M hasn’t recorded more than eight wins in a full season since Jimbo Fisher’s 2018 squad. With 18 or more starters returning in 2023 and 2024, the Aggies welcome 16 starters while ranking No. 6 in overall Returning Production this year. They have been strong in home-openers lately, going 9-2 SU and 6-2-1 ATS since 2014. They host red-headed stepchild UTSA, knowing the Roadrunners are 38-14 outright under head coach Jeff Traylor against opponents who won fewer than ten games the previous season. The Tractor Traylor is also 5-0 ATS as an underdog of more than 17 points. Sold.

TRENDING TODAY
Shake It Off

Vice President JD Vance has never been afraid to display his sports biases openly.

He’s proudly a Cincinnati Bengals fan for NFL and an Ohio State Buckeyes supporter for college sports. So, after learning about Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce’s engagement to pop icon Taylor Swift – an outspoken critic of his administration – Vance made it clear he’s not a fan.

Vance worries that the Chiefs might receive favorable treatment from referees because of the Swift-Kelce engagement.

“I will say as a football fan − as a Cincinnati Bengals fan − I hope that the NFL does not tilt the scales in favor of the Kansas City Chiefs just because Travis Kelce is now marrying one of the most famous women in the world,” Vance said.

He expressed concerns about a possible “Super Bowl wedding thing” happening at some point this season. He emphasized that the Chiefs must follow the same rules as every other team.

“You guys can’t sort of have this, I’m worried they’re going to have a Super Bowl wedding thing this season,” Vance said. “Can’t do it. The Kansas City Chiefs have to follow the same rules as everybody else.

“So, if we see the refs being especially friendly to Kansas City Chiefs players, then I think all football fans should be willing to push back on the NFL and say, look, you guys have to be fair. Just because Travis is marrying Taylor, you still can’t tip the scales for the Kansas City Chiefs.”

The Vice President isn’t the first, and won’t be the last, to warn the NFL against rigging the season in favor of the Chiefs. Most haven’t been as subtle as Vance.

The Conspiracy: With the 2025 season widely expected to be Kelce’s last in the NFL, it makes sense that the league wouldn’t want to risk losing the kind of ratings boost it gets this season.

Thanks to “maybe the most famous woman in the world,” that will only reinforce ideas that the league will – as Vance said – “put a thumb on the scale” for the defending AFC champions.

When she announced their engagement, Swift tweeted, “Your English teacher and your gym teacher are getting married.”

But not before a well-crafted prenup was signed. FYI: Swift’s net worth is reported to be $1.6 billion, while Kelce’s is $70 million.

Here’s hoping the conspiracy theorists will heed Swift’s advice and just “Shake It Off.”

Ronnie from the Big Apple wants to know – What’s going on with Jerry Jones these days. He seems to have lost control of the Cowboys?

Marc Says: Valid question, Ronnie. He appears to have caved under the pressure of being force to sign him to a contract that Jones was not comfortable with. The first thing most folks do in the aftermath of a mega-trade like the one that went down Thursday —sending Parsons from America’s Team to the Packers in exchange for two first-round picks and DT Kenny Clark—is assign blame. Certainly, both the Cowboys, all the way up to ownership, and Parsons played roles in the conclusion everyone came to, one week before Dallas’s opener in Philadelphia.  The Cowboys’ offer, made by Jones to Parsons himself in April, as the owner detailed at his press conference, topped $40 million per year, but ended up being too long for the Parsons’s camp’s liking. Dallas has been down this road before with guys, trying to get them to do five- and six-year extensions to give the team a heavy measure of control through changing conditions in the market. Parsons walking away from the offer changed the dynamic.  Trust was another factor. Jerry Jones has proved over the years to be willing to reward his best players at the highest level, and has built life-long relationships with scores of the stars who’ve made their way through North Texas over his 36 seasons leading the franchise. And that means Parsons is headed to a very different place, going from having the NFL’s most prominent owner as his boss to a team with no owner, from a massive market to a small town, and from glitzy Jerry World to historic Lambeau Field.  For sure, it will be an adjustment for Parsons.