ON TODAY'S SCORECARD
Every Game Matters

Every game matters at this point in the NFL season as teams fight for playoff position and chase division titles.

Continuing from yesterday here's how the AFC playoff picture looks at the moment...

AFC

1. New England Patriots (10-2): Up next — vs. Buffalo 12/14
Notable odds: With a 2.5-game edge over the Bills, the Patriots are closing in on securing the AFC East title, at 93% to win it. And they have by far the highest odds of anyone to grab the No. 1 seed in the AFC, at 61%, according to The Athletic.

2. Denver Broncos (9-2): Up next — At Washington Commanders on Sunday
Notable odds: With another Chiefs loss, Denver is an even heavier favorite to win the AFC West crown, at 77%, along with a 27% probability of earning the AFC's No. 1 seed, per The Athletic.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4): Up next — vs. Indianapolis Colts in Week 14
Notable odds: The Jags are now the leaders in the AFC South, and are at 83% likely to make the postseason, per The Athletic.

4. Baltimore Ravens (6-6): Up next — vs. Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 14
Notable odds: Baltimore's playoff odds took a big hit with Thursday's loss to the Bengals. But they jumped right up to the top of their division after the Steelers' loss Sunday. The Ravens still have a 71% playoff probability, per the NFL.com.

5. Los Angeles Chargers (8-4): Up next — vs. Philadelphia Eagles in Week 14
Notable odds: The Chargers still have good odds of making the playoffs at 63%, per the NFL.com. Catching Denver for the division title, however, is a long shot 18%, per The Athletic.

6. Indianapolis Colts (8-4): Up next — At Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 14
Notable odds: The Colts now trail the Jaguars in the AFC South, but they are listed at 69% likely to make the playoffs by The Athletic and NFL.com.

7. Buffalo Bills (8-4): Up next — vs. Cincinnati Bengals in Week 14
Notable odds: While Buffalo's chances at catching up to New England to win the division title are slim (9% according to The Athletic), the Bills are still very likely to qualify for the postseason, at 89%.

Still in the AFC picture

8. Houston Texans (7-5): Up next — At Kansas City Chiefs in Week 14
Notable odds: The Texans' odds to make the playoffs took a jump after their win over the Colts, up to 61%, per The Athletic.

9. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6): Up next — At Baltimore Ravens in Week 14
Notable odds: Pittsburgh entered the week at 38% to make the playoffs, according to NFL.com. That crashed to 28% after their latest loss. If they don't beat the Ravens next week, it may be out of reach.

10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-6): Up next — vs. Houston Texans in Week 14
Notable odds: Kansas City's Thanksgiving loss to the Cowboys was costly. NFL.com's model shows the Chiefs fell from 52% to 38% to make the postseason. At 3.5 games behind the Broncos in the AFC West, hopes of a division title are effectively down the drain.

From The Playbook Football Newsletter

MAC dogs are 16-7-3 ATS in conference championship games, including 8-2-1 ATS
if they surrendered 21 or fewer points in
their last game. Say hello to Miami, Ohio.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW
Unstoppable

Boudreaux of Louisiana dropped us this note:  Marc, a long-time subscriber. Enjoy the commentary. Full disclosure I am an avid LSU fan. You criticize Kiffin for possibly leaving with coaches and players , in a playoff run and a desire to coach the team he put together, however completely forgive Sumrall for basically doing the same. I would be surprised if coaches and players don't follow Sumrall. Do you not believe he will be splitting attention between the jobs? I read your justifications that it is within the conference, however the argument is inconsistent in my opinion. Both take what is viewed as a better job. Perhaps this has more to do with your opinion on Kiffin overall.  My opinion is the NCAA has the entire situation in a mess. Heard an interesting story today that when Knute Rockne won the national championship in 1924 he did not fly back with team and was having discussions with USC about a job. Rumors were talks occurred prior to game. This man is revered by sports writer and ND circles. Has been going on a long time.

Marc Says: Great commentary, Boudreaux, and your points are well taken. And yes, my displeasure with Lane Kiffin is clear. This is his sixth different head coaching role at the FBS level, after serving as the youngest head coach in Oakland Raiders history at age 31 in 2007, when the Raiders picked QB JaMarcus Russell first in the NFL draft (he strongly opposed Russell's selection, who turned out to be the biggest bust in NFL Draft history). To his credit, across six teams and 13 seasons as a college head coach, only one season was losing—2018 at Florida Atlantic with a 5-7 record. A good head coach. Check. A man of character? Doubtful. Not when you leave the No. 7 team in the country in a lurch to take a job with another SEC program. Many feel he left a trail of sleaze on his way out of town, and I am one of them. Jon Sumrall chose to support the players he recruited at Tulane and to coach them in a bowl game this season. Kiffin did not. And that’s my point. His exit left a stain on college football.