2025 Playbook Football Questions Interviews
1. What is my primary style of handicapping?
My primary style of handicapping blends statistical analysis with situational factors. I utilize advanced metrics, such as expected points added (EPA) per play and success rates from Pro Football Focus (PFF). However, I also factor in intangibles such as home-field advantage, weather, coaching tendencies in high-stakes games, and rivalry games. Using the latter, I was able to cash a money line ticket when Michigan upset Ohio State in Columbus on the Thanksgiving weekend.
2. What is your "golden rule" of handicapping?
Never chase public money blindly. Betting lines shift based on crowd sentiment, but value lies in finding discrepancies. Cross-check a team's against-the-spread (ATS) record with situational edges, like performance after a bye or in divisional games. Discipline in sticking to data-driven bets over hype is key.
3. What is the first thing you look for when handicapping a game?
My approach varies depending on the time of year. Early in the college football season, I assess how many returning starters a team has from the previous year. Teams with five returning starters on the offensive line typically excel at moving the ball and are less likely to incur costly false start penalties. As the season progresses, I shift my focus to matchup advantages, particularly in the trenches. The performance of the offensive and defensive lines, as measured by pass-blocking and run-stopping metrics, significantly influences the flow of the game. A strong pass rush against a weak offensive line can be a game-changer. I also consider injuries to key players, such as linemen or quarterbacks, to gauge their potential impact on the game.
4. Which team statistic do you value the most?
I prioritize yards per play, both offensively and defensively. It's a strong indicator of a team's efficiency and explosiveness, capturing how well they move the ball or prevent opponents from doing so. I complement this with situational statistics, such as third-down conversion rates and red-zone efficiency, to gain a deeper understanding of clutch performance. I also consider turnover margins to gauge ball security and defensive opportunism.
5. What do you like the most about the expanded college football playoff?
The expanded playoff format is crucial for ensuring the best teams compete for the National Championship. Two seasons ago, Florida State's undefeated season was unjustly overlooked for the CFP after their starting quarterback's injury. Just as glaring was Georgia's exclusion after a narrow loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship, despite their dominant campaign. A 12-team format, or a 16-team one as I expect in the future, is essential to give elite teams the opportunity they deserve to prove themselves on the biggest stage.
6. Which college football team is most likely to win this season's playoff?
Trying to put my personal bias aside, Penn State has made some significant moves during the offseason. First and foremost, the acquisition of former Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles cannot be understated. Coaches who move to a rival school in the same conference are a telling statement. True senior QB Drew Allar should finally have the break-away talent at wide receiver with the portal pickups of WRs Trebor Pena (Syracuse), Kyron Hudson (USC), and Devonte Ross (Troy). The Nittany Lions have the best backfield in the nation, with seniors Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton both poised to become the leading rushers in Penn State's history.
7. Biggest surprise college football team this season?
Illinois will be the surprise team in college football for the 2025 season. After a 10-win season in 2024, they return 18 starters, including experienced quarterback in Luke Altmyer. With a strong offensive line intact and a manageable schedule featuring challenging home games against Ohio State and USC, Illinois is well-positioned. Their high returning production and success in close games last year make them a contender for another 10- or 11-win season and a potential dark-horse run at the College Football Playoff.
8. Biggest college football bust this season?
I expect Ole Miss to be the most disappointing team in college football for the 2025 season due to a significant loss of offensive production and a demanding schedule. After a 10-3 season in 2024, the Rebels lost 59% of their offensive production. The transition to redshirt sophomore Austin Simmons at quarterback introduces uncertainty, as he lacks Jaxson Dart's experience and dual-threat ability. The Rebels also face a grueling schedule with road games at Alabama, LSU, and Arkansas, plus a home matchup against Georgia. Despite a strong transfer portal class, the loss of such a large portion of offensive output could hinder Lane Kiffin's high-octane system, leading to 7 or 8 wins and falling short of the top-15 preseason hype and playoff expectations.
9. Which college football coach commands your attention from a handicapping perspective?
Notre Dame has to be at the top of this list. Since the beginning of the 2022 season, Marcus Freeman's first full year at the helm, the Fighting Irish have led all FBS teams with a 28-12-2 ATS record, resulting in a 70% success rate. That includes a 10-1 (90.9%) record after a bye and 14-3-2 (82.4%) against ranked opponents. Notre Dame obliges those who like totals, as well, with a 26-16 OVER/UNDER mark during this span.
10. Which NFL team is most likely to win this season's Super Bowl?
I believe the Philadelphia Eagles will win the Super Bowl again in 2025. Coming off their 2024 championship, they boast a dynamic offense led by quarterback Jalen Hurts, whose dual-threat ability keeps defenses guessing. Their offensive arsenal includes elite wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, who combine for explosive playmaking, and running back Saquon Barkley, a versatile threat in the run and pass game. Protected by a top-tier offensive line with Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata, this high-powered attack, paired with Nick Sirianni's aggressive play-calling, will overwhelm playoff opponents, securing the Eagles back-to-back Super Bowl titles in a commanding performance.
11. Biggest surprise NFL team this season?
I predict the Washington Commanders will be the biggest surprise in the NFL in 2025. Following a 12-5 season and an NFC Championship appearance in 2024, rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels continues to excel as a dual-threat star, leading an offense with wide receiver Terry McLaurin and newly acquired Deebo Samuel. The offensive line, now featuring left tackle Laremy Tunsil, provides solid protection for running back Brian Robinson Jr. Under Dan Quinn's dynamic defensive scheme, the Commanders disrupt opposing offenses with a strengthened secondary led by Marshon Lattimore. With a manageable NFC East schedule, and Daniels developing strong chemistry with his playmakers, I see Washington aiming for 11 or 12 wins and emerging as a serious Super Bowl contender.
12. Biggest NFL bust this season?
I expect to take some heat for this, but I believe the Kansas City Chiefs will be a major disappointment in the 2025 NFL season. Despite Patrick Mahomes leading them to a 15-1 regular season in 2024 (sitting out the final loss), he hit career lows with 3,928 passing yards and 26 touchdowns while taking 36 sacks, signaling offensive line struggles. Tight end Travis Kelce, who turns 36 this season, also posted career lows with 823 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns, raising concerns about his declining production. Their schedule is daunting, with home games against Philadelphia, Baltimore, Detroit, and Washington, as well as a tough road trip to Buffalo in early November. With 11 of their 15 wins last season coming by one possession, a shift in close-game fortune could see the Chiefs struggling to secure a playoff spot.
13. Who is your favorite recording artist?
Pearl Jam
14. What is your favorite song?
Rhapsody in Blue- George Gershwin
15. What is your favorite movie?
The Town
16. What is your favorite meal?
My Dad's home-made lasagna
